China Food

Qingshan capital Zhang Ye: is new consumption cold?

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from a macro perspective, new consumption is a great opportunity in the coming decades.
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Last year, many people were concerned about “will angel investment die out?” recently, many voices said “new consumption is cold”. So is new consumption really cold? Where are the opportunities?
In the past few years, we were still lonely because the market did not pay much attention to consumption. In the past two years, more and more investment institutions began to enter the field of consumption, such as consumption preference, and more and more excellent entrepreneurs entered the field to start businesses, which brought a lot of attention to China’s consumer market. Under this environment, many people said that the valuation of consumer items was too high and seriously overdrawn Especially this summer, due to some Sino US policy reasons, the overall financing data and financing situation of the primary market are not very ideal. As one of the most important themes of the primary market this year – consumption, of course, also has a certain decline, so there are many disputes.
is new consumption really cold?
Referring to the macro data, in terms of consumption demand, in the first half of the year, per capita disposable income increased by 12%, per capita consumption expenditure increased by 17%, and the growth of consumption expenditure was faster than the growth of income, which shows that the consumption intention has increased significantly. As of August, the production index of service industry increased by 17.7%, the average growth in two years was 6.2%, and the social retail sales increased by 18.1%, including commodity Retail catering revenue and online retail have shown a very strong growth momentum.
In the first half of this year, the revenue of listed companies of consumer goods also showed a very bright performance. On the basis of such a large volume, they still achieved revenue growth of different volumes. For consumer start-ups, how to capture the incremental market and face the attack of large enterprises in the competitive pattern is the problem that new consumer brands need to solve, not the dilemma of the consumer market.
From the perspective of capital, this year’s capital market IPO situation is very good. In mid September, 449 enterprises went public, far exceeding 356 last year. The number of consumer enterprises’ IPOs has increased significantly. From January to September this year, 37 Consumer enterprises went public through IPOs, accounting for 8.2% of the total number of IPOs, compared with 18 consumer enterprises in the same period last year, accounting for only 5.1% of the total number of IPOs In other words, the increase in the number of IPOs of consumer enterprises is much higher than that of other industries.
Looking at the primary market, although the overall financing events in the primary market of the whole industry are less than last year, the financing of consumer enterprises is still growing. Up to now, there are 662 cases, accounting for 12.9%, and 525 cases in the same period last year, accounting for only 8.7% of the total financing events. In the first half of the year, the top ten industries with the number of investment events include it, biomedicine, semiconductor, etc., including chain beverage, retail and Food & beverage The industry is the two industries with the fastest growth rate among the top ten. The growth rate of investment in chain beverage and retail reached 129.6%, and the investment amount increased by 21.6%, which is far higher than that in other industries. The growth rate of investment in food and beverage industry was 66.7%, and the investment amount increased by 4.8%. If we dig deeper, we can see that the early investment in consumption this year is more active, especially in round a and before round a. If investors have no confidence in the future of the consumer market, they will not make more bets in the early stage.
In the long run, the factors that we think about new consumption have not changed. The entrepreneurial convenience brought by the new infrastructure has led to the influx of more excellent talents into consumption in China. The rise of national tide and democratic self-confidence are inevitable trends. In fact, the underlying supporting factors of consumption have not changed. The reality is that there are more and more homogeneous products, and most of them are investment Tiktok, rather than product driven or brand driven, makes the possibility of breaking through traffic breaking down. The dividends of new media and new media are rapidly diluted, and the strategy of putting into play has changed. The way of jitter, Kwai, and little red book has become a standard, so there is no new way to find new brands and value brands. It can’t be sold, which makes everyone have the illusion that “new consumption can’t work”. Therefore, the cold is not new consumption, but ROI.
How much room for new consumption?
Many people begin to say that domestic consumer goods are already crowded and have become the Red Sea. So where is the ceiling of new consumption? What will happen in the future? The first 20 years of the 21st century is the era of the all-round rise of made in China. Although there is still a big gap with developed countries, there is no doubt that we are transforming from made in China to Chinese brands.
Compared with the global brand list, the United States is still the biggest winner of world-class brands, occupying an absolute number of seats in all brand lists. After more than ten years of rapid development, Chinese brands are playing an increasingly important role in the world brand pattern. Take brand finance as the top 500 most valuable brands in the world Take the list as an example. Ten years ago, only 19 Chinese brands were shortlisted. Last year, the number of Chinese brands on the list has reached 76. The total value of Chinese brands on the list has increased from US $100 billion 10 years ago to more than US $1 trillion, and the growth rate is almost 8 times that of the overall brand value on the list.
However, Chinese entrepreneurs have a long way to go, especially in the field of consumption. In the selection of world brand lab’s top 500 world brands last year, the five countries with the largest number of world-class brands were the United States, France, Japan, China and the United Kingdom. Although China ranked top in the total number of brands, most of the industries listed in China are banking, energy, media and other industries, There is still a big gap between the number of consumer brands on the list and other countries, only four. The imagination space for the development of Chinese consumer brands is not just the domestic market. We have reason to believe that the proportion of Chinese consumer brands in the world pattern will increase significantly in the next two or three decades.
This is the dividend in the context of the times. In the future, we have reason to believe that many of these brands will come from entrepreneurs now and in the future.
How? Of course, it depends on Chinese entrepreneurs. Only in the competition road can we achieve large enterprises and have the opportunity to become a world-class brand. If we want to seize new opportunities in the competition Road, we will have China’s P & G, China’s Mars and China’s LVMH. How? The logic is that when there is a nonexistent supply or demand in the competition Road, the enterprise can enlarge the supply and demand by making a good product, so as to form a new large-scale consumption habit and form brand cognition. Then, by extending this consumption habit to form a product matrix, and then through the scale and technical reserves, build barriers in the supply chain and channels, and finally become a super large enterprise.
How to capture new opportunities in the competition?
First, structural change is an opportunity. Take daily dark chocolate as an example. The chocolate market is undergoing structural changes. The first is the structural changes of domestic and foreign brands. In 2020, the global sales scale of chocolate products reached US $122.05 billion, mainly concentrated in Europe and the United States. In terms of consumption, China’s share in the world has remained at about 3% in recent years. In China’s chocolate candy market, several major imported brands such as dove, Ferrero, Hershey and Nestle account for more than 70% of the domestic market share. Among the top ten domestic brands, only Jindi and Jiangsu Liangfeng have a combined market share of less than 2%. Now, foreign brands are becoming more and more vulnerable. Combined with the domestic market environment, whether from the more fully used new infrastructure, the change of consumer groups and the enhancement of national self-confidence, they have the foundation for China’s new chocolate brand to break through.
The second is the structural changes in chocolate. Consumers with increasing health awareness also began to pay attention to the list of ingredients and ingredients of snacks when selecting. The formula, ingredients, technology and even packaging of snack brands are developing towards a healthy trend. Chocolate seems to be growing steadily, but the undercurrent is surging inside the category. The dark chocolate inside the category is rapidly eroding the chocolate market share. The growth rate of dark chocolate is ten times that of chocolate category. Under the combined effect of these two structural changes, daily dark chocolate has become a representative brand of chocolate in China.
Second, new supply and new technology. Take quick-frozen food as an example. The industry space is large enough and the growth rate is fast enough. The annual compound growth rate in the past decade has reached 13.8%. It is estimated that the C-end scale of China’s quick-frozen food is 237.9 billion yuan. Dingding bag is a microwave fast food brand. It adopts the technology of thermal convection circulating microwave steam, so that users can directly put the frozen fried noodles into the microwave oven without thawing or unpacking. It can be completely restored after heating for a few minutes, and the taste is no less than the freshly fried noodles or powder.
During the microwave process, the bag will expand, the steam will circulate, and the food will be heated quickly. A one-way exhaust port will be set at the edge of the bag. Therefore, when the bag expands to a certain threshold, the exhaust port will exhaust automatically. At this time, the air pressure in the bag reaches dynamic balance, just like a small pressure cooker, the efficiency of heating food will be higher and more uniform, Unlike the bento box in a convenience store, the top is hot after microwave, and the bottom is still cold. The surprise brought by the supply of new technologies is far more than the improvement of product innovation and consumption experience. The carbon emission of Dingding bag technology is 80% less than that of heating methods such as gas stove and self heating pot.
Third, new demand. Bosie is a fast fashion clothing brand that clearly grasps the new demand. Gender free and neutral clothing is the new demand of a new generation of consumers, which originally did not exist. This demand has increased very rapidly in the past three years. Bosie cuts into the clothing market through asexual clothing, advocates breaking constraints, breaking boundaries, seizing the aesthetic dividend of new demand, and centralizing the originally scattered consumer demand. Neutral clothing is a very clever entry point. Behind it is the same consumer group, because men and women have the same style, The consumer group corresponding to each SPU is doubled. Of course, bosie has the ability to create a trendy brand to meet the needs of consumers’ personality and fashion. There are 2000 square meters of super stores on middle Huaihai Road in Shanghai, which has basically become a holy land for young people to punch in.
Generally speaking, new consumption has not been cold, and macroscopically, it is a great opportunity in the next few decades. New consumer start-ups should go to the competition, seize new opportunities, make good products, look to the future, and finally become a world-class brand.
Author: Zhang Ye; Source: Castle Peak capital (ID: cyanhillvc), reprint has been authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
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