China Food

Profiteering brewed beer, but can not grow a “giant”


“ 
fine brewing is a “Besieged City”. People who want to enter the city see “10 times huge profits”, industry reshuffle and great potential… Within the fence, there are traditional beer giants who have stood in the way and capital who want to leave the city at any time.
 ”
精酿啤酒创业有多火?
酒水行业资深媒体人申睿如此形容:“这两年酒水行业的展会,到处都是来找代工的精酿品牌。”
千岛湖啤酒董事鲁栋樑也有同样的感受,他告诉全天候科技:“一年下来我就接待了800多人次,近百家精酿品牌来找我们代工的。”
做为浙江省本土最大的老牌啤酒品牌,千岛湖啤酒在2016年开启了精酿啤酒的代加工业务,鲁栋樑明显感觉到2019年之后精酿行业迎来了代工的爆发期,目前代工业务已占到整体业务20%。
对于其他找上门来寻求代工的品牌中,去掉产量不达标,产品同质化的品牌,千岛湖啤酒最终会接单的不到10%。而数年下来,其工厂生产的啤酒品种也已经达到了348种,除去千岛湖啤酒自产的60多款啤酒,仅代工的品牌为280家左右。
而在这之中,能够坚持3年稳定下单的精酿品牌并不多。
“许多品牌一次生产过后,后续要的量就减少了,不再符合我们的最低产量要求;还有更多的品牌是不再做精酿,转行了。”鲁栋樑说。
“精酿赛道很大,机会很多,但在大企业的垄断下,要做成功的难度很大。”
这是鲁栋樑3年下来最大的感悟。但即便如此,仍然有大量创业者前赴后继。
企查查数据显示,2019年、2020年、2021年,精酿啤酒相关企业注吊销量分别为278、414以及560家,“死亡品牌”逐年上升。但新生品牌也增速迅猛,近三年精酿啤酒相关企业注册量分别达到了1258、1683以及2668家。

2021年7月9日,在南京开幕的第七届中国精酿啤酒节现场。(图片来源:cfp)
操盘了多个快销品牌的创业者Sam,在2020年4月也进入到了精酿赛道,创立了梵波精酿。他对这个赛道的判断十分乐观:“行业已经完成了初步的洗牌,度过了萌芽期,消费市场也对精酿有了一定的认知,市场增长很快,精酿啤酒一定有着很多机会。”
只不过,要找到这样的机会,还需要突破啤酒巨头们对渠道的封锁,以及没有资本扶植下的重金投入。而大多数的初创品牌还未找到解法,就已经夭折在路上。
ebb and flow
这波精酿的创业热潮开始于2019年,并在2020年、2021年更加火热。
事实上,早在2017年,精酿啤酒赛道就已经经历过一轮洗牌。
在国内,精酿啤酒的发展不过十来年的时间。早期是在一批具有留洋经历的国人,以及在华工作的外国人群体中兴起,他们偏爱啤酒花更浓,风味更丰富的啤酒,但在工业啤酒高度垄断的国内市场,啤酒产品相对单一,许多人便开始了自酿啤酒。
而后这种形态发展为精酿酒吧在一二线城市里遍地开花,成为了一种白领阶层的生活方式。
在2016年、2017年左右,资本开始进入精酿啤酒赛道,诸如拳击猫、斑马精酿、猴子精酿、酒花儿等品牌成为了这一时期资本的“宠儿”。百威在2017年收购了拳击猫,同年熊猫精酿也完成了行业内最大金额的一笔融资,高达1.19亿人民币。
但在那一轮的投资热后,资本的热情迅速冷却。关注过精酿啤酒赛道的消费投资人肖华(化名)告诉全天候科技:“我们行业内讨论过,那一波投下来我们是觉得基本都交了白卷,因为需求并没有起来。”
到了2020年,疫情的爆发影响了线下酒吧、餐饮行业的运营,酒吧等娱乐场所迎来了关店潮,许多坚持“小而美”路线的精酿品牌并未能熬过寒冬。在2020年、2021年两年中,精酿啤酒相关企业注吊销量总计接近1000家。
从另一个角度看,此时的行业经过洗牌,也完成了初步整合,从事快销品创业的Sam看到了机会,“整个的品类已经度过了萌芽期以及2017年之前的调整期。”同时,消费市场也已经进行了中高端啤酒的教育。
在过去5年,中国啤酒三巨头青岛、雪花、燕京大力推进产品升级,连工业啤酒的价格都从个位数涨至双位数。
“过去他们主要卖两三块钱一瓶的水啤,现在也做了白皮、拉格、黄皮等等。”申睿表示,“它们只是一点点升级,把水弄少一点,啤酒花多加一点,还没有到精酿的程度,但也是在往腰部以上走了。”
这种潜移默化的升级,让消费者们逐渐能够接受价格在10元以上产品,也为消费者进一步接受价格更高的精酿打下了基础。
肖华调研发现,现在很大的一个变化就是消费者喝酒少了,但是喝得更贵了。中高端啤酒的发展十分快速。
中研网数据显示,2020年中国精酿啤酒销量仅占整体啤酒市场的2.4%,而行业人士透露,这个行业年复合增长率在25%。前瞻研究院预计,到2025年,国内精酿啤酒市场规模将达到875亿元,渗透率为11%。 
巨大的市场摆在面前,无论是啤酒巨头还是创业者都很难放弃。据青岛啤酒官方披露,预计未来3到5年,其啤酒产品高端化比例将达到15%到20%。

青岛啤酒推出的高端产品,售价高达1399一瓶
而促使精酿啤酒创业爆发更重要的一点还在于产业链的成熟。
据鲁栋樑介绍,整个中国的啤酒市场,被雪花、青岛、燕京、嘉士伯、百威、喜力六大国内外巨头占据了90%的市场。随着巨头们对市场的整合,许多曾经的中小啤酒厂产能过剩。
“工厂利用率以前是80%以上,但这几年一直在走下坡路,大概在60%到70%左右。”肖华表示,而这也促使许多酒厂开启代工业务,来拉满产能。
在过去3年中,啤酒行业的代工服务发展十分迅速。以千岛湖啤酒为例,到2021年,代工业务的营收已经占到了整体营收的20%。
在代工服务上,据千岛湖啤酒介绍有两种合作方式,一种是品牌自研配方,租用千岛湖啤酒的设备;另一种是品牌提供想法,工厂便可研究生产,到最后出品,一条龙服务。
全包式的服务,极大的拉低了精酿啤酒的技术门槛,这也使得越来越多的门外汉对精酿跃跃欲试。
bad cake
Not only is the technical threshold low, only from the cost of production, the cost of brewing beer is not high.
according to Lu Dongliang, the cost of producing refined beer is mainly in raw materials, processing and packaging materials, accounting for about 5:2:3. Compared with traditional industrial beer, refined beer has higher raw material consumption and processing cost, but its price is also higher, and there is a huge margin in the middle.
take Fanbo fine brewing as an example. According to Sam, “the materials and processing costs of Fanbo fine brewing account for only 8% ~ 12% of the export price of the whole finished product.” Because their raw materials are cell liquid instead of dry input, the cost of raw materials can be further reduced, which can be reduced by 40% compared with the industry average level.
“in fact, once mass production of many fine brewed beer, the production cost can be reduced by about half.” Sam said.
what is the average gross profit margin of the brewing industry?
, the founder of a fine brewed beer brand specializing in retail channels, introduced to all-weather technology that the cost price of their “German wheat” beer is 2800 yuan per ton, and the cost of 500 ml is only 1.4 yuan. Even with the bottles and labels required for materials, it is only a cost of more than 2 yuan. But on the market, such a bottle of beer costs 19.9 yuan, with a gross profit margin of 80%.
and such “huge profits” have also become the most attractive bait on the refined “big cake”, attracting countless profit seeking entrepreneurs.
in fact, although the gross profit of many brands is very high, the profit of many brands is not high or even negative. “Some people make money by selling 9 yuan, while others can’t make money without selling 30 yuan.” These people said.
“like that niche brand, it can’t do it without 300% gross profit.” The person in charge of a beer acting foreman revealed, “because now the fine brewing is not sold, on the premise of not selling, its fixed cost (including depreciation cost) is very high.” And relatively speaking, the shelf life of refined beer is usually shorter than that of industrial beer.
he explained for example that if the brands can sell all the 10000 tons, the gross profit margin of 20% will be very good. However, the de commercialization rate of many brands is not high. For example, only 2000 tons are sold. If the price is not increased, it is even difficult to recover the cost.
and the most critical issue is whether the channel can be opened up and whether the consumer market is willing to pay for the brand. The channel of
liquor market is still dominated by offline channels due to its “ready to drink” nature. The six beer giants have already firmly controlled the channels leading to dining tables and entertainment places. It is difficult for fine brewing brands to break out of the siege surrounded by the giants.
and the circulation channels they can take are direct bars and retail through convenience stores, supermarkets and e-commerce.
but fine brewing for retail is not favored. “If you don’t enter the direct marketing channel, first, he can’t sell. Second, he can’t establish recognition. Go directly to retail. There are all kinds of brands in a row of cabinets in convenience stores. Why do others buy it?” Xiao Hua said.
“what business pays attention to is a place where turnover and resources can be put into a virtuous circle.” Xiao Hua said, “some people find a good channel. If they dig deep into one channel, they can get through. But in shopping malls and convenience stores, this cycle can’t roll out.”
once the dynamic sales of refined products can not afford, the whole capital chain will be difficult to sustain, and the product prices of sketch brands will be more difficult to lower. In contrast, big brands that have accumulated funds can take the lead in fighting a price war under the advantages of channels and costs.
taking Beijing fine brewing brand “Jing a” as an example, Carlsberg acquired a small stake in Jing a in 2019. Alex, founder of Jing a, introduced during the all-weather science and technology dialogue that Jing a has four core brewed beer, which are processed and produced by Carlsberg’s factory and sold through Carlsberg’s channels.

due to the realization of mass production and the use of existing channels, the selling price of these four beers in the official flagship store of Taobao Carlsberg beer is controlled at about 10 yuan / bottle, at the same price as the common medium and high-end beers such as 1664 in the market.
can achieve relative “parity” with other brands such as Boxing cat acquired by Budweiser, panda fine wine with high financing, and xuanbo, which completed three rounds of financing in 2021. Taking xuanbo as an example, the price of 330ml refined beer is about 3.9 yuan, which is almost the same as that of a bottle of industrial beer.
under the huge price gap, the Matthew effect of refined beer is intensifying, and it is more difficult for start-up brands to develop without strong capital support.
in fact, the giants have not yet made full efforts in fine brewing.
“in fact, it is not suitable for large-scale fine brewing. The giants dare not rush to promote the global single products of fine brewing, because it is also peacekeeping with the original intention of fine brewing,” Shen Rui believes, “but it is easy for them to do fine brewing.”
problem solver
Moreover, capital’s enthusiasm for this track has not surpassed that of the previous round.
according to the data of enniu, the number of investments in the four years from 2018 to 2021 was 3, 5, 1 and 11 respectively. 2018, 2019 and 2020 were the financing lows of the industry, and only increased in 2021.
data source: enniu data, all-weather science and technology mapping
. However, even if the number of investment increases, the financing mostly stays in the primary stage of angel round and a round. Except for making low-end refined xuanbo beer and being a cat member of liquor channel, the investment amount obtained by other brands is not high. Investment institutions are still in the water testing stage of small investment.
in the middle of 2021, Xiao Hua (a pseudonym) participated in the investment of a fine brewing brand. According to him, in the first half of 2021, many VCs saw the new wine circuit and expressed interest in fine brewing, but there were not many projects invested as a whole.
according to its introduction, investors pay attention to fine brewing in two directions. One direction is to look at offline space, such as offline chain pubs such as Helen’s and Er Ma. It mainly looks at the user positioning, business characteristics and urban attributes of such brands, and tries to find the next chain fine brewing bar brand that can open hundreds and thousands of stores. The other direction of
is products.
first is to see if this product has the potential to become a large single product. After his investigation, Xiao Hua found that there is no shortage of small and beautiful brands in the fine brewing track. Many brands that have survived from their early development still have their own fixed customer groups, but his consumer groups are fixed in the senior lovers of fine brewing beer, and the taste and flavor are difficult to be accepted by the public. Such brands are also difficult to commercialize.
secondly, it depends on their solution to the channel. Products sold only in their own bars are difficult to expand due to the limitation of self operated space; Those who choose supermarkets and convenience stores as their starting channels are regarded by Xiao Hua as “the most garbage solution”.
investors prefer to see a channel solution similar to Taishan raw pulp.
first developed the concept of “beer puree”, staggered the direct competition with industrial beer, and took the lead in playing a medium and high-end market. In terms of channels, they are densely arranged near the catering business area by means of stores and wine stations, and timely delivered by means of takeout, rather than directly entering the retail channel or going to the catering store to fight directly with the giants.
in this way, Taishan has found a way to survive and released its production capacity in the Shandong market where snowflakes and Qingdao are fighting the most fiercely. Then it continued to expand to the northern market. With the increase of brand influence, it attracted franchisees and further expanded the market, forming a virtuous circle.
but Taishan’s method is not suitable for most refined beer. Taishan’s main raw pulp and fresh beer are actually the upgrading of industrial beer, which is aimed at a larger consumer market. Moreover, the early-stage cost of arranging outlets is too high, which can not be borne by fine brewing start-ups.
many brands are also trying to give different answers. Taking Jing a as an example, in addition to the self operated bar channel, on the one hand, four core products are launched offline through Carlsberg’s channel, which has accounted for half of its annual sales.
on the other hand is to open the channel of “exclusive supply” and supply wine to the bar. In many offline bars in Beijing, you can drink Jing a’s barreled beer. Whether such channels can be opened depends on whether the brand itself has sufficient recognition in the industry and reputation.
“although investment institutions were also looking at fine brewing last year, they were looking for those with more than 80 points, and those with less than 80 points won’t see it.” Xiao Hua said. In his opinion, there are not many brands that can reach the level above 80 points on the whole track.
witnessed the three years when the OEM business of fine brewed beer was booming. Lu Dongliang also felt that the industry was ebbing, “I think it will be cold from 2022.”
among the OEM brands of Qiandao Lake beer, some brands decided to change careers after testing the market; After a mass production, some brands continue to reduce production and difficult to maintain.
according to the “pioneer state frontline” report, due to the reduction of orders, factories at the end of the supply chain also began to close down. An interviewee said, “of the 10 factories I saw, 3 or 4 were transferred this year, which can’t be opened at all.”
but for the deep cultivators of the craft track, the rise and fall of the tide will not affect them. Alex, founder of Jing a, told all-weather technology: “their coming in also let many people know the fine brewing, which is a good influence.”
in this undeveloped market, the industry is waiting for a real outbreak, which may be the popularity of a large single product, the launch of a brand, or the birth of a new channel.
and capital is not really far away, just waiting for a better answer.
Author: Hu zhe; Source: All Weather Technology (ID: iawtmt), reprint has been authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246); for the sixth consecutive year, foodaily released the annual business hot spot of the food industry – exploring the development law of categories from 200000 new products around the world, studying the changes of global consumption, studying the changes of new consumers and consumption demand in combination with in-depth insight into the Chinese market, and exploring the new value brought by the two new consumption drivers of technology reconstruction and brand popularity, Focus on the prospective discovery of category cracks / innovative products, so as to help new consumer entrants anchor market segments and category fission opportunities, and provide inspiration and decision-making reference for product innovation in the next year. (click the picture to view the detailed introduction) related reading

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