China Food

Capital is just betting that the new Chinese baking will run out of the next “happy tea”

 
无论最后的赢家是谁,这条路都注定艰难。

 


如若不是疫情影响,新中式烘焙今年的声浪可能会更大。在过去三年里,这个赛道玩家频出,资本疯涌,尤其是2021年资本的快速进场,轮次叠加,让人恍惚觉得「这似乎是闭着眼在投」。
 
有观点认为,资本的快速反应反而验证了烘焙赛道的潜力,「烘焙很可能早就进入过各家遴选名单,只不过有的选择 in,有的过会后仍然按兵不动」,一名投资人解释。
 
虽然是千亿市场,但中式烘焙此前并不强势。倒是西式烘焙的点心们伴随着「简单快捷」、「甜点礼仪」逐渐走向大众,反衬着中式的「饼、酥」之类听上去有些老气横秋了。
所以说墨茉点心局、虎头局渣打饼行等新中式点心品牌被资本青睐是好事,至少在短时间内,大众的注意力能够被重新拉回中式烘焙市场。
 
但仅有大众的关注还不够。
 
按照鲍师傅创始人鲍才胜的观点,烘焙行业每五年就会迎来一次洗牌。这当中,产品能力、供应链能力,组织和人才管理能力都是决定成败的关键因素。资本的猛进或许是在赌,新中式烘焙中一定会跑出下一个「喜茶」,而这个玩家能扛住周期不倒。
 
不过也别忘了那些已经沉淀几十年的老玩家们。北京、苏州两大稻香村,上海杏花楼沈大成,加上中生代选手鲍师傅、泸溪河和詹记,新中式的烘焙江湖厮杀激烈,热火朝天。
 
谁是资本的宠儿如今已经明晰,但谁坐未来的头把交椅,变数尚在。
 
各家明争暗斗
 
去年上半年,几家新中式烘焙品牌相继宣布获得明星基金入场。3月,虎头局渣打饼行被红杉中国青睐,6月份今日资本就入股了墨茉点心局。
1个月后,老虎环球基金、GGV纪源资本、IDG中国等与红杉再度出手加注虎头局,随后美团龙珠也在9月助力墨茉点心局达成B轮。这让新中式烘焙的两个代表品牌直接走上台前。
 
尽管双方都有自己的产品矩阵和品牌标识,但被拿来比较几乎是常事。有关「长沙新中式糕点的龙头老大到底是谁」的争议,从虎头局和墨茉点心局的battle中正式拉开序幕。
 (图源@灵兽传媒)
头牌之争只是第一步。墨茉点心局如其名般,默默拿下长沙城市原点、最核心商圈「五一广场」附近IFS国金街、7mall等多个点位。尤其是国金街B2层的墨茉门店,和鲍师傅的直线距离不超过150米,两者和不远处的吴酥生宫廷糕饼一起形成掎角之势。
在这场点位之争里,虎头局也没有输。墨茉点心局在「五一广场」能进潮流之光IFS国金,虎头局就有本事开在它的对面——王府井百货的负一楼。
另外就整个五一广场商圈而言,太平老街、黄兴路步行街等人流量极大的景点区域,都被虎头局见缝插针地安排了门店。游客看得多了,自然潜移默化产生品牌认知的转化,而且会默认这是「长沙的代表选手」。
 (图源@华夏时报)
且不论谁是长沙中式点心的No.1,能从长沙这种群龙聚首的新消费品集中地跑出来,本身实力就足够强大,头牌较量和点位之争之后,城市抢位也被提上日程。
 
进军北上深,谁输谁赢还说不准。
 
墨茉点心局的确先在北京打开了局面,拿下了西单大悦城、朝阳大悦城、合生汇、来福士等重点商圈点位,大众点评中显示北京地区营业中状态达到9家,而虎头局目前可搜索到的是北京的3家,互联网芳草地上地站万象汇、五棵松华熙Live和通州万达门店,门店数量上墨茉点心局的确压过了虎头局。
 
如果说墨茉点心局在北京是略占上风,那在上海就是虎头局的天下——因为直到2022年4月,墨茉还尚未在沪开出门店。此外,虎头局在上海打入了高端商圈芮欧百货和环贸IAPM,加上计划要开业的五角场地区门店等,目前规模也在10家左右。
 
不过墨茉点心局并非没想过去上海。根据《中国企业家》从消息人士那里得到的消息,因为疫情原因,原本定于2021年底进军上海市场的计划被暂时耽搁,所以墨茉先启动了杭州门店。杭州湖滨银泰官方微信号显示,墨茉的浙江首店位于该商场的C区负1层。
而根据天眼查的信息,墨茉点心局的法定代表人王丹的确在2021年8月就在「上海金山区朱泾镇秀江路280弄80号(南翼经济小区)」的地址上注册了一家名为「上海威兰嘉科技中心」的企业,经营范围类目中包括食品销售和酒类经营。
而在2022年3月18日,同样的地址上被注册了一家名为「上海万狮如意」的食品有限公司,法定代表人同样是王丹。这被媒体解读成墨茉想要再度启动上海门店的信号。
 
从头牌之争到点位之争,再到城市抢位战,新中式烘焙的两大选手热烈焦灼,对行业来说未必不是好事。新茶饮赛道成型之初,喜茶和奈雪的茶也是齐驱并进,不相上下,这客观上提升了行业的整体水平。
 
不过说新烘焙明争暗斗,不仅仅局限于虎头局和墨茉点心局。诸如点位争夺之类的PK,烘焙中生代选手鲍师傅、泸溪河的表态只不过缓慢了一些,意图表达得隐晦了点儿。
 
这么说吧,街道是一个相对无序竞争的环境,极大依靠单店效率,通过降本增效来提高存留利润,但进入核心商业体往往是比较容易跑出品牌的路径。
 
初代烘焙网红鲍师傅一开始的门店选址很有「夫妻店」的作风。以上海为例,在火车站附近有开过,也在1号线莘庄终点站附近也开过,还有一家甚至开去了七宝。当然这其中不排除有初期山寨门店的存在,正是这些仿冒门店一定程度上影响了品牌形象,
 
2017年鲍师傅和天图资本接洽后,用了几年时间慢慢规整了这些门店。如今在上海的淮海中路,寸土寸金的位置,一家鲍师傅位于美式炸鸡品牌Popeyes和光明邨之间,矗立在年轻潮流中心淮海TX对面。
(图源:大众点评用户@我不想减肥了)
 
当然,门店位置对于品牌的重要性不仅在于客群定位、品牌调性和形象,还有实打实的利润。在核心商业体,交通发达之地,大体量的流量池能够彻底提升门店流水。
 
3月底,虎头局位于上海核心商圈的一家门店,单日销售额突破10万,这刷新了历史纪录。而新烘焙品牌山海茶点在上海的首店,就选择了同样声量高调的北外滩来福士。这是购物中心和品牌的相辅相成。
(图源@上海美食攻略)
 
这也是为什么,一旦点位之争进入核心商圈商场的具体楼层时,这种竞争就会更为激烈。
光源资本董事总经理李昊在接受媒体采访时曾提及,「虎头局的某些竞争对手也用过一些非常不市场化的打法,比如加价到很高在长沙拿点位,并要求甲方(商业体)排除与虎头局的合作。」这种恶意竞争和排他性打法,对整个行业来说并无裨益。
 
而在明争暗抢背后,更微妙的,是多家新中式烘焙品牌对资本态度的变化。
投资人们曾在2021年上半年互相调侃,「不是不想投泸溪河,联系方式都要不到」。泸溪河一开始对资本的态度相当高冷,直到2021年下半年才释放出松动的信号。合肥詹记也相对保守,而现金流充盈的鲍师傅,也是天图资本跟了很久,2017年才啃下了这块骨头。
 
资本到底在赌什么?

逐一扫描目前已经和资本接洽的新中式烘焙品牌,你会发现无论虎头局还是墨茉点心局,还是某某点心局,他们的创始团队大多是年轻人。当然泸溪河、鲍师傅一类虽然算中生代选手,但因为赶上了这一波消费升级,也常常被归纳入「新生代」一起讨论。
 
为什么是这些品牌在烘焙赛道升级中脱颖而出?为什么年轻团队创立的品牌能被挑中?资本在他们身上到底在赌什么?
 
以墨茉点心局来说,今日资本女王徐新在和创始人王瑜霄畅谈一晚之后当即拍板决定投资,生怕错过了这个项目。而美团龙珠的创始合伙人朱拥华一走进墨茉点心局,就有了「第一次在深圳看到喜茶门店时的感觉」。
 
李昊和团队也曾考察过虎头局的动线设计和视觉系统,他们印象很深刻。这和设计师的感知有一致性,「比如你去看上海环贸IAPM的旗舰店,从进店问候引导开始,就给你一张纸质菜单并告知顾客当前货品是否缺货,哪些可以立刻购买,哪些还需要等待,L型的动线设计确保顾客边看菜单边浏览玻璃橱柜里的所有点心,进而走到点单柜台,下单结账,最终才进入取货等待区」。
这名设计师感觉「消费者进来的一切消费行为,都在空间体验流程中被详细分割且设计过」。这和蓝瓶咖啡的从「背景音乐」就开始心理渲染和暗示,设置多个消费触点有共通之处。
 
而在这种场景体验中,消费者也是能够产生愉悦的。王瑜霄在创办墨茉点心局之前,就有了湖南广电和时尚潮牌的经验,对流量运用敏感,加之潮流审美在线,而虎头局的创始团队中有知名广告公司和快消品的经验,还有来自喜茶的高管,两家都搭上了国潮的热浪,也都能在长沙跑出来,实力自然是有的。
 
按照王瑜霄最初的想法,只要跟着茶颜悦色的点位走,不愁遇不到年轻消费者。三家茶颜悦色周围,布下一家自己的点心局,「喝奶茶吃麻薯」这个消费习惯就养成了——这和奈雪创始人彭心提及的「喝奶茶吃欧包」有相似性,都是同一场景下「搭配组合」的消费模式。
 
此外,对于两家都有的招牌产品麻薯来说,年轻品牌们的消费心智转化都做得不错,把一个能量较高的「饭后糕点」转化成了「轻量化的休闲零食」。麻薯按份卖,但个头小数量多,吃一个习惯性拿起第二个,可做「社交分享类零食」,而蛋挞、老婆饼之类可以按个卖,安排上减脂低糖的版本,可做「代餐之用」,吃起来负担也不大。
 
可以看出,这些特质都让新中式烘焙的两家巨头快速渗透到更多年轻消费群众之中。而资本也是在赌,赌他们可以成功。
 
相关数据显示,2021年中国烘焙食品行业市场规模将达2600.8亿元、同比增长19.9%,到2023年,中国烘焙市场规模可能会超过3000亿元人民币。
 
尽管新中式烘焙蓬勃发展,但整体烘焙市场的迭代周期正不断缩短。老牌烘焙不断陷入泥潭之中:来自马来西亚的芝士蛋糕品牌食之秘突然从线下消失,因北海道香浓吐司出名的宜芝多也在上海线下关闭。整体赛道拥挤,玩家们持续承压。
 
资本进入之后,行业自内而生的产业升级力量被催化,迭代周期更快更短。这种高速竞争下,有时候一不小心错过良机,就会很容易失去一城。
 
像此前提到的,墨茉点心局在2021年6月、9月分别拿下今日资本、美团龙珠资本后,上海市场的消费者开始对其翘首以盼,但2021年墨茉错过了在上海打响入沪首站,也连带着失去了先发优势。
 
不仅是虎头局开始在上海逐渐站稳脚跟,进入高端商圈,本土的一家「徐步到点心局」也开始加速扩张。如果去年6月麻薯热从长沙刚传到上海,墨茉就趁势进入,如今的局势可能会完全不一样。
 
此外,自从泸溪河、墨茉点心局和虎头局大火后,全国范围内的「各路点心局」纷纷下场,他们虽然尚未到北上深争夺大市场,但总归把二三线的用户收拢在手心。
而这些点心局,很多主打产品同质化过高,消费者很难对某一品牌保持高忠诚度,在加上时不时的优惠、满减活动,消费者在不同品牌之间频跳尝鲜已经成为常事。
那下一步的战争,要怎么打?
core competence lies in the product and supply chain

for baked goods, the moment of import almost determines consumers’ repurchase intention. Therefore, the essence of the return is the competition of products, which requires that the large single products of the brand can break out, perform steadily, and be introduced in the form of strong cash flow, so as to build momentum for the long-term blood transfusion and value-added of the brand. The idea of large items has been verified. For example, xuanma, an online brand of egg yolk pastry, achieved its head only by making egg yolk pastry, and announced the completion of a round B financing of more than 100 million yuan in April 2021. Today’s new players are also taking this path repeatedly. For example, Mo Mo dessert bureau is strongly bound with Mashu. Luxi river is incarnated as a synonym for peach crisp, and master Bao is most famous for meat floss Xiaobei.
, previous players verify the correctness of the thinking of large items, and later players can easily copy the experience. A new Chinese baking brand “fufu bakery” that has just become popular recently is bound with pineapple bags and opens up the market. Previously, “pineapple bag” was widely used in Hong Kong style tea restaurants and Guangdong style refreshments, but no one took it out alone to make it bigger. The next step is to innovate the taste and quality of the product after the large single product is bound to the brand and left a deep impression in the hearts of consumers. This is the key to brand R & D and innovation ability. Some players have done well in this regard. It was also because of the innovation of a large single “semi cooked cheese” that Holly Lai was able to open up half a position with its peers. Luo Hao and Luo Cheng, the sons of Luo Hong, the founder of
, went to Japan three times in 2014. They obtained the exclusive formula and technology of semi cooked cheese cake from the famous dessert craftsman man Nakayama in Tsukuba, and introduced the homogenizer that “bubbles can be added to the cake paste” rarely seen in China at that time, making the taste of cheese cake more moist and dense. Hu Ting, founder of Hutou Bureau, once lamented the innovation of Haolilai in an interview with the media. By establishing competitive barriers in micro innovation, the brand is likely to remain invincible for a long time. Hutou bureau also tried to establish this threshold, such as “improving the selection of red jujube varieties and the production technology of jujube paste to make it not bitter”.

from the perspective of “mashed potato”, which is mainly promoted by the two head baking brands at present, although it is not clear whether the raw material of mashed potato is mashed powder or ready-made, if it is mashed powder, it is difficult to differentiate between the two. A person in charge of a baking raw material factory mentioned that at present, some low priced pastry shops will use a lot of ready mixed powder to save time when making cassava, and the raw material suppliers of these ready mixed powder are not only Zhanyi and Landai brands, but also factories in Songjiang, Shanghai.
in other words, the upstream raw material suppliers have formed a head effect, and the downstream manufacturers can only play on the inner stuffing or improve the baking process, otherwise the difference in taste will not be too great. Song huanping, an angel investor, believes that taking the new Chinese baking track as an example, the transformation port of consumption upgrading was originally cut from the C-end, and the shelves were set up. Later, the transformation surface slowly traced back to the upper reaches of the industry and began to cure the root cause.
the root cause is more difficult. Previously, the supply chain of the baking industry was basically divided into two modes, generally the front store and back factory and on-site baking mode formed by the chains of bread Xinyu and 85 ° C, and the combination of central factory + local retail stores reached by Christine and Macquarie. However, most of the new generation players have not broken through this dimension at present. In order to make the advantages more obvious, we need to deeply polish all links of the supply chain.
, especially when these brands move from the most familiar regions to the whole country, they often face the problem of cross regional operation and management. In an unfamiliar external environment, the original set of production, processing, management and distribution system is completely copied and efficiently implemented, which often makes the brand more capable of expansion. These are the so-called “Ben”. Some old players who have crossed the cycle and have long been confident in “Ben” do not have stage fright in this wave. Suzhou Daoxiang village and Beijing Daoxiang village are still arguing about “who is the most authentic Daoxiang village”, but both sides have started some trendy reforms.
Zhou Guangjun, head of Daoxiang village in Suzhou, said in an interview with the media, “it is certain that they have played a great role in promoting us, allowing the industry to avoid low-level competition.”. Of course, under the uncertainty of the epidemic situation, the industry will certainly continue to be under pressure. The official account of some of Changsha’s dim sum shops is being adjusted, and the media has also reported a lot of layoffs. The brand quickly responded, and corrected around the social platforms like WeChat public and Xiao Hong. In 2021, the Mo Mo dim sum bureau did make some departmental adjustments, but the proportion of the background adjustment was less than 20%, accounting for less than 2% of the total staff. However, capital still has high hopes for this. The day before the closure of Shanghai, one of the investors of fufu cake shop also went to a local store to do on-site research. However, starting from the moment of being questioned, no matter which brand wants to become the next “happy tea” of the new Chinese baking track, this road is doomed to be difficult.
Author: Li xiaowai; Source: BBB Research Institute (ID: gh_c21f49b602dc), reprint authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
food people are “watching”

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