China Food

Special ice cream track, new brand has only two years window


 


雪糕行业,就比较神奇。

 

最近有媒体朋友来采访我关于“网红雪糕”的话题,我得知茅台也入局了雪糕这个赛道,他们推出的“茅台”味冰激凌售价高达66元。他们问我怎么看?依照我一贯的“反网红”论调,你们可能猜我会大力批评,持续吐槽吧?
沉思研究了几天之后,我发现这个赛道非常有意思,是一个极难得的能解释各种反常品牌现象的品类。接下来,我就从品牌的切入点,和你分享一下我的观点。
废话不多说,先上结论,然后听我深扒其中的缘由。
结论有三个:
一、雪糕是一个极其特殊的赛道,品牌机会难得,错过不可复制。
二、文创雪糕和普通雪糕是两个物种,两套商业逻辑。
三、两年内雪糕品牌战役完结,品牌新格局成型。
接下来我将从产品、定价、渠道、营销的经典4P逻辑+我们的关系品牌逻辑出发来告诉你这三个结论是怎么推导出来的:
我为什么说雪糕行业极其特殊?
现如今,起盘任何一个消费的品牌,大抵都逃脱不了“品牌起盘即DTC”的开局命运,这几乎是一个人人都知道的现象。同时,纯线下没活路,也成为了共识。
“没有中间商赚差价”的口号背后,其本质也不是真的没有中间商了,而是作为中间商的渠道发生了巨大的变化。从传统明处的中间商,变成了互联网时代暗处的中间商(各大电商平台、直播电商的互联网经销商、代运营商等)。
因此,基于以上两点背景,绝大多数消费品牌面对的现状是:面对消费者得不停的搞活动、降价促销,面对平台商、直播商得不停的给低价、买流量、上推荐位。中间的空间挤压的越来越小,自己有工厂和生产的品牌方还好,通过销量提高,成本可以进一步降低。自己没有工厂和生产的品牌方就比较惨,越挤越瘦,三只松鼠生生被挤成一只松鼠。
但是!
雪糕行业,就比较神奇。在这个纯线下没活路的年代,线下渠道依然是中国雪糕和冰淇淋销售的主战场。2021年线下比例为95%,2022年即使受疫情影响,线下比例仍然高达80%。
线下渠道如此主流,是这个品类消费的特性。毕竟,线上物流再快,快不过冰激凌融化的速度。线上宣传再好,好不过太阳底下晒着的人立刻马上就能把手伸进冰柜拿出一只雪糕的好。
“消费的即时性”,是雪糕品类最大的特殊性。
依靠线下渠道,这一特殊性有什么意义呢?
太大意义了。它对渠道的依赖大大增加,换句话说,雪糕赛道,可以依然守着之前的冷饮经销渠道过日子,并且暂时不用担心来自线上的冲击。同志们,渠道稳定,并且集中,本身就降低了销售和营销的成本和管理成本。
线下渠道稳定,这一特殊性决定了一个品牌在短短的时间内只要影响到一小撮核心经销商,并且和他们构建行业生态,就可以快速达到推广产品的目的。
我翻出1926年上海海宁洋行打造的中国最早的雪糕品牌——“美女牌”棒冰的宣传图和物流照片,不知道为什么,即使隔了将近100年,这个行业总让我感觉一如往昔。
(the earliest ice cream was called “bingjielian”, which was cute)
except for the particularity of the channel. At present, the ice cream category also has two particularities: one is the low threshold of product innovation, and the other is the price system.
what is interesting about these two points is that the threshold for participation is not high, which determines that new brands can enter the market as quickly as possible, even if they are not brands in the industry (such as Maotai, the Forbidden City, etc.).
on the other hand, the price system has changed. Ice cream has come to a good time to raise its price. This good time has been taught by others. As soon as the price of the brand rises, the profit margin for the channel providers will come out, so the new brand will have the opportunity. The repricing and product upgrading of
ice cream have given new brand opportunities. Since the channel of
ice cream is so special, you should ask: how can new brands have the opportunity to enter since these offline channels are so stable and the original ice cream brands are all big dairy manufacturers? There are no more than two ways to innovate the products of the
ice cream category. One is the silica gel mold ice cream, that is, to innovate the shape of the ice cream. For example, the “little yellow man ice cream” produced by Mengniu and Universal Studios and the “cultural creativity ice cream” produced by tourist attractions such as the summer palace are innovations generated by the finalization of this simple silicone mold. Another innovation of
is the innovation of raw materials. For example, the Maotai ice cream we mentioned at the beginning, and some new brands’ playing methods of using raw milk instead of vegetable fat and cocoa butter, and natural pulp instead of chemical additives are all innovations from the perspective of raw material upgrading.
the threshold for either of these two innovations is not high.
say more about the price: now, ice cream with more than five yuan has become the main force in convenience stores. In particular, the selling prices of some online popular brands such as Zhong Xuegao and Dongbei Daban have reached more than ten yuan. This pricing is far from the traditional public impression that ice cream costs only 1-3 yuan.
why do people still buy such a price? Is the price that has risen 10 times still so reasonable?
because there are similar high price references.
in the past, there was only one relevant category of ice cream in the minds of consumers: soda. Ice cream and soda water chase each other and replace each other. Therefore, the pricing logic will not be too different.
but now, the control group of ice cream has added several new species: milk tea, coffee and yogurt.
this is amazing.
milk tea, coffee and yogurt, which are the major categories produced by many world-class major brands who have spent billions of marketing expenses, have managed to educate the market a little bit with their prices. As a result, the ice cream was here and enjoyed it.
a cup of coffee, more than 30 yuan; A cup of milk tea with more ingredients will cost 30-40 yuan; Yoghurt is also happy to rise in price through these two east winds. Ice cream is also a product under the leisure ice drink category. It is natural to take over the user’s mind that they have educated.
once the price was adjusted, interesting channel changes began. According to an ice cream ice cream dealer, the purchase price of the online popular brand ice cream sold for 15-30 yuan is only 78 yuan, and the cost price is only about 6 yuan or even lower. What does that mean? It means that the profit of dealers is higher than before. Such profit space is enough to support a new brand to quickly build its own sales channel. Moreover, the earlier the price is raised, the more attention from dealers will be paid to the brand.
therefore, there is an ingenious channel “opportunity” for price adjustment. In the past, the ice cream brands of big manufacturers generally did not grasp this channel opportunity, because the already stable industry ecology and market insight still remained in the past thinking. However, after the “successful water test” of the high priced online red brand, ice cream brands have launched high priced products.
“in this round of so-called consumption upgrading, online Red enterprises are crossing the river by feeling the stone, and traditional big consumer brands are crossing the river by feeling the head of online Red”. In other categories, we have seen that the online red brand has been submerged in deep water, and the traditional consumer brands have taken advantage of innovation. But in the category of ice cream, there is a rare “win-win” situation.
this is actually related to the “successful price break” of the new consumer brand, and also related to the fact that the whole industry has not yet reached a real “roll”.
therefore, at this time, it is the only window of opportunity for the new brand. While there are still profits, while the channel is still relatively focused, it will come out. It will be known from the meeting within two years, because it doesn’t take so long for the horse racing enclosure, user education and product innovation of this industry.
cultural creative ice cream and ordinary ice cream are two different things. In the past two years, only 13 mainstream ice cream brands have had at least 34 “cross-border” joint names. Among them, Haagen Dazs, Guangming and Deshi are the most, followed by Yili, heluxue, Mengniu and Dongbei Daban, three times respectively.
covers a wide range of fields, from liquor like Maotai to games of the hero League, to Yuyuantan scenic spot, Renmin University of China, Shenyang Imperial Palace… In short, it is a great pleasure to cross. Why should
cross? What is the essence of cross brand?
think so: for ice cream manufacturers and brands, ice cream crossover is a broadening and innovation of dealer channels. For a wide variety of other cross category, ice cream is the practice of realizing your own flow time and time again. In the case of high profits, neither side suffers losses.
you go to Yuyuan lake with your friends and buy tickets for a stroll. You feel free to consume. However, in the past, there were no really matching good goods in Yuyuan lake for you to consume in such a field. The fans, notebooks, bottles and cans of cultural and creative industries seem to be “useless to use, but a pity to discard”. Suddenly, there is a flash in front of them: ice cream! Compared with other cultural and creative products, Yuyuantan cherry shaped ice cream can not only quench thirst, but also take photos and send friends. 30 yuan is OK, buy it!
please note that at this time, it doesn’t matter what brand the ice cream is (it is Yuyuantan brand ice cream), and it doesn’t matter whether the ice cream tastes good or not. Importantly, as a prop in the “Scene”, it is mainly for showing off, supplemented by eating, and will not be purchased again after pulling the grass.
therefore, as a realizable product of IP itself, Wenchuang ice cream has a brand premium of IP. Consumers will not re purchase it again and again, relying on the high profit margin and the strong cyclical flow of people of IP itself.
but ordinary daily consumption ice cream is another kind of brand logic. In this logic, whether the channel has made great efforts to recommend the ice cream, the taste and stability of the ice cream itself, whether everyone’s brand awareness of the ice cream brand is becoming more and more real, and whether the brand still has the price advantage after everyone has raised the price, these are the logic of the brand ice cream. The
net red ice cream brand has caught up with a good track, but even so, there is not much time left for the net red brand. The pricing premium given priority is an opportunity for the net red ice cream to make breakthrough in the channel and build brand awareness. But what about the traditional big brands? At the beginning of the
and other internal examinations, the product’s cost advantage, raw material innovation ability and channel management will face a new round of examinations. At that time, it is the time for the new brand to really stand on its feet.
looking forward to it.
note: for convenience of expression, the “ice cream” I mentioned here refers to the general name of ice cream + ice cream.
original title: the three brands behind the net red ice cream Author: Li Qian; Source: Li Qian said that the brand (id:liaotian78) has been reprinted with authorization. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
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