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re understand the investment logic of the consumer industry.
I often think that there is essentially a different frequency of rhythm between consensus and non consensus.
Consensus is not necessarily right.
Non consensus is not necessarily wrong.
When the industry consensus is to invest in consumer goods, it may not bring real opportunities, but there must be a short-term foam. Those who participate in the foam may not be able to make a fortune.
The non consensus is: can consumer goods be invested? Some people think it can, others think there is no chance. The team that has survived this stage is like the team that has passed the long march and has been tempered by fate.
2019-2022 about consumption and catering can be described as a roller coaster and a double sky of ice and fire. As I have been involved in these two industries, I have witnessed countless strange phenomena and building collapses.
When Haidilao and Xiabu are good, you all say that catering is Xiaotiantian. Now that they’ve cut their knees, is it Mrs. Niu? Or is there really no hope?
I think there is a problem that most VC practitioners in China do not understand very well. (but they think they know very well)
That is, the method of investing in TMT is used in China, and there is no convention in the world. Domestic investment in consumer goods is basically calculated at the level of primary school students and speculators. But they think they are doctoral guides and value investors.
Excessive pessimism is also unnecessary.
First of all, there are no unchanging rules in the world. It must be adjusted to local conditions and switched according to the industry. Allocate according to the macro environment (liquidity, etc.). What’s wrong? Because I got a little bit of bat and MJT in the past and became rich, I will invest in this methodology in the future. That is to carve a boat and seek a sword. It shows that cognition is very low and morality does not match.
Consumer goods, catering, manufacturing. It has its own logic. It won’t change too much because of the addition of an internet tool.
Investment planning must be carried out according to his essential logic. Not for patting the head.
How do you do it internationally? Let’s take a look at an investment case of Buffett.
Many people know that Buffett invested in Coca Cola. Later, I invested in apple.
But he has a case of super high return that everyone has ignored.
Buffett, who was deeply influenced by Graham in the early stage, pursued the “smoke ass theory”, that is, find the undervalued company stock at a very low price, and then sell it at a high price after the value returns and the stock price returns to a reasonable price. Buffett metaphorically said that it’s like finding a cigarette butt on the ground that can still be smoked, picking it up and lighting it can be smoked for free.
What really opened the watershed of Buffett’s “value investment” road was the acquisition of Sishi candy in 1972. That year, Sishi candy intended to sell the company, with an annual net profit of $2.08 million, a net asset of $8million, and a selling price of $30million.
Munger and Buffett, who are both interested in this company, have different value judgments. Munger believes that we should buy a good company with reasonable value. He is optimistic about the business model of Sishi candy. However, Buffett believes that it is crazy to buy a company with a price earnings ratio of 15 times and a price higher than 2 times its net assets.
Finally, Buffett set the price ceiling at $25million, and withdrew from the acquisition after one more point. Fortunately, the senior management of Sishi candy agreed to the offer. The subsequent performance of Sishi candy made Buffett realize that “buying a great company at a reasonable price is better than buying a mediocre company at a very low price”.
So far, Sishi candy has been listed as “not for sale” by Buffett. At this year’s Berkshire shareholders’ meeting, he brought goods with Munger on site to let shareholders choose 11 tons of Sishi candy. The preference for Sishi candy comes from that it has almost all Buffett’s expectations for the corporate moat. This sentence is not exaggerated. Buffett’s original words are “the prototype of dream like business”.
Good business – consumption is the eternal demand of mankind;
Which industry can span the cycle? Resist economic fluctuations? The answer is undoubtedly in the field of large consumption. Everyone has consumption demand every day. Just as in the past few years, most VC companies focus on consumption upgrading. Xishi candy relies on addictive sweets to continuously drive sales, which is also Buffett’s preferred consumer category. Similar cases include DQ, Coca Cola and Heinz.
The enterprise bought is like a bond, stable and safe;
In the 35 years from the acquisition in 1972 to 2007, Sishi candy created a pre tax profit of $1.35 billion. If the market value of Sishi candy was increased, the return on this investment would be about 100 times, with an average annual return of 14%, much higher than the average growth level of the U.S. stock market.
Have excellent genes, especially loyal and diligent managers;
Buffett summed up the success of Sishi candy as “excellent products and excellent managers”, and “excellent managers” refers to chuck Hudgens, the former CEO of Sishi candy.
From 1972, he became CEO and retired in 2006. Chuck has been in charge of sissy candy for 34 years. Its strong management ability makes Buffett only need to call chuck once every half month or so, and he can wait for the money. In the continuous operation, the management of Sishi candy has made clear a criterion, that is, to ensure that consumers only have a pleasant mood when they think of the brand.
Stabilize companies with competitive advantages in the industry;
A stable industry means stable demand, and it also means that enterprises serve the “rigid needs” of consumers. This kind of industry has low risk of being affected by market fluctuations and policy changes, and has stable revenue and profit margin.
In the 35 years since the acquisition in 1972, the sales volume of Sishi candy has increased by only 2% annually, but it is extremely stable. Because the candy and chocolate industry is “just needed” and is not affected by the policy, consumers will not suddenly stop eating chocolate overnight.
Stable growth period and penetrating brand value;
Sishi candy almost “monopolized” the boxed chocolate market in the western region of the United States. Due to its brand mentality of “genuine materials and reasonable prices”, it occupied a high premium gift giving and social scene.
In the product matrix, Sishi candy will regularly add new flavors, eliminate old flavors, and maintain about 100 combinations; In terms of quality experience, Sishi candy refused to add any preservatives, and traced back to the supply chain to control the quality of raw materials, which also reduced the price sensitivity of Sishi candy.
Buffett will almost raise the price of Sishi candy on December 26 every year to ensure that the enterprise can still obtain stable profits even if the sales growth slows down.
·During the duration, only a small amount of additional capital is required to maintain a high rate of return.
Sishi candy is a typical “cash cow”.
In his 2007 letter to shareholders, Buffett mentioned that “the working capital of Sishi candy is incredibly low”. After acquiring Sishi candy in 1972, its pre tax profit reached $1.35 billion, but Berkshire’s additional investment was only $32million.
After deducting relevant income taxes, most of the profits of Sishi candy went to Berkshire Hathaway, and the money was exchanged for many high-quality company shares.
Therefore, the growth curve of the consumer industry is different from that of the TMT industry. TMT has some good investment projects that can bring exponential growth, but the initial growth of consumer brands is flat. It may take two years to open the first store and the third store, and three years to open the tenth store. In the future, the development speed will gradually accelerate.
How to judge the value of a consumer goods enterprise? I think the six principles of the moat of Sishi candy brand are also applicable to the Growth Logic of other consumer goods.
From another perspective, what should brands do now?
Without specific cases, there is no concrete perception. In this issue, let’s talk about the season of lemon tea.
Since the first store was opened in Changsha in February 2021, the stores in Ningji will cover the markets in Central China, East China and southwest China in the next year. As of June this year, nearly 600 stores have signed contracts in Ningji.
Perhaps, in the public’s impression, Ning Ji will be labeled as an Internet celebrity, but recently, after an in-depth understanding of what they are doing, I found that they are doing a very important thing – “agricultural science”.
How long does Ningji plan to invest in this matter. Wang Jie, founding partner of Ningji, replied: “we study agricultural science to raise brand barriers. We have patience and long-term planning to do it. It is OK to invest 3, 5 or 10 years, or even longer, and use time to build barriers.”
Compared with traffic and eyeball effect, I prefer to label Ning Ji as a “professional”. Next, I will also use framed value analysis to understand the Growth Logic of Ningji like rubbing.
First, consumption is rigid, non cyclical or non seasonal;
After experiencing this round of epidemic in Shanghai, I have a view that consumer goods brands that have not been remembered in the past two months are dangerous, or fake rigid needs. During the period of closure and control, I can hardly see people hoarding new consumption. What’s more, they are hoarding Coca Cola at high prices, old dry mothers, group milk tea, cigarettes and wine.
In the face of absolute rigid demand, from survival materials to addictive categories, the new consumption track that was hotly discussed in the past is not so important.
Above the product is the brand, and above the brand is the category. To understand the growth of lemon season, we need to return to category cognition.
When it comes to lemon tea, what is our metacognition?
I think there are two points:
① Refreshing and greasy, rich in vitamin C;
② Not edible, suitable for tea.
Therefore, lemon tea is a natural high-frequency and rigid demand category, which has two analysis and demonstration logic:
① VC is the natural memory of lemon, and lemon tea itself has a cognitive label of “health”;
Hand made lemon tea in the lemon season is further amplified by the way of hand beating, hand making and hammering, so that the health awareness of genuine materials, ingenuity and no addition is further amplified, and meets the current consumption demands of low sugar and low calorie.
Therefore, lemon tea has an expanding mental advantage. Some people have roughly estimated that a cup of 600ml normal sugar milk tea, for example, has about 400 calories, and a cup of lemon tea has about 140 calories. It is addictive to a certain extent, but it will not have psychological burden.
Taking the data of June 2022 as a reference, the overall repurchase rate in Central China in the Ning season is 49.5%, and nearly half of consumers will become customers, while the overall repurchase rate in the second quarter is 38.7%. In a Ningji store in Changsha, its repurchase rate was as high as 63.5% in June and 51.2% in the second quarter. Compared with the data of a first-line milk tea brand last June, the repurchase rate of its active members was 30.3%. The overall repurchase rate of lemon season is still nearly 20% higher than that of active members of the latter, which shows the consumption stickiness of lemon tea.
In addition, at the audience level, lemon tea has a wider audience than milk tea, which focuses on young women. Partner a, who opened five Ningji stores in Yueyang, told me: “in addition to girls, the proportion of men and women in the audience of lemon tea category is relatively coordinated, which is roughly 40-60 years old, including health people between the ages of 40-60. In their ‘Metacognition’, this group believes that lemon tea is healthy, and they usually make lemon tea at home, so you can see that 60 year old grandma will take her granddaughter and buy a cup of lemon tea.”
Anti greasy, refreshing, low calorie, healthy, coupled with a certain degree of addiction, lemon tea can form a stable repurchase.
Lemon tea has the property of relieving oil and greasiness, which naturally matches the catering scene;
In addition to summer drinking and shopping scenes, highly standardized and popular Chinese food categories such as hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, Malatang, hot and sour powder and barbecue are CP categories together with lemon tea, which can relieve oil and greasy. The consumption of condiments in catering channels is 1.6 times that of household cooking, which means that there is little seasonal impact on the demand for relieving oil and greasiness.
Just as Sishi candy is anchored in the gift giving scene with high frequency and high premium, when consumers are dining out, they are less sensitive to the price of lemon tea. Combined with mid-range pricing, they can quickly form purchase decisions, which can also lead to the second point.
In the context of high-frequency catering and the popularity of Chinese food chain brands with heavy tastes, hand-made lemon tea in the lemon season can achieve stable revenue;
In addition, the taste of Cantonese lemon tea, which is slightly bitter in the lemon season, will be improved to form a standard ice degree and sweetness suitable for the public, so as to break through regional barriers with the localization of taste. At present, Ningji is mainly engaged in “encryption” and saturation attacks in Central China. After the stores reach a certain density, there is no new expansion; Expand new stores in the East China and southwest markets, especially focus on the provincial capital cities to achieve incremental coverage.
Therefore, health awareness, high-frequency catering scene correlation and breaking through regional barriers can become the chassis to support the continuous growth of the lemon season.
Partner B, who also opened five Ningji stores, in addition to opening four stores in its headquarters in Changsha, also chose to open its first non local store in Chengdu. The logic of partner B’s store opening comes from the rigid demand for lemon tea’s category of “relieving oil and greasiness”: “Chengdu’s eating habits are almost the same as those in Hunan. It also has an attribute of ‘hemp’, from hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, barbecue to local pot chicken, which is compatible with lemon tea. The products of lemon season are very popular in terms of packaging, vision and taste. Girls who are afraid of oil and fat are easy to accept this taste and taste.”
Third, Ningji has excellent genes, especially loyal and diligent managers;
“I’m an organizer, not a manager.” when asked how to manage a 428 person team, Wang Jie once replied, “I have a ‘user manual’, that is, you’re the boss within the major, and I’m the boss outside the major. I have the right to know. You can’t tell me, this is the characteristic of our organization and management.”
We once had a point of view that “management” is more important than “management” for the management of employees in innovative and creative industries. We should clarify the business process and everyone’s role positioning.
In the management team of Ning Ji, most of them have entrepreneurial experience, including core management members of listed companies, well-known catering brands, Internet companies and other new consumer brands, with master’s and doctor’s degrees concentrated. Among them, Tan Li, a partner of Ning Ji and CMO, is a continuous entrepreneur. There are 30 elites under the age of 30 at Forbes. He was once the co-founder of Lujiao lane. He has rich experience in brand strategy, integrates marketing resources, and deeply cultivates the field of consumer insight and digital intelligence marketing; Ning Ji’s partner, COO Jinshan, was once the CTO of sina micro games. Many years of experience in the game industry and the Internet industry have enabled him to integrate the advantages of technology, products, operations and other aspects, with a sharper strategic vision and business sense, efficient decision-making ability and execution ability.
A team without Jianghu spirit can’t do much, but a team with Jianghu spirit can’t go far. The strength of entrepreneurship and the operating experience of first-line mature brands are the key for new and cutting-edge brands to become popular brands.
Similarly, in the start-up team of Yuanqi forest, most of the management teams come from traditional beverage brands. The R & D director used to work for Nestle, the production director used to work for Coca Cola, and the sales director used to work for Nongfu mountain spring. This enables Yuanqi forest to clearly identify how to connect with the top resources in the industry and understand the operation methods of international brands at the start-up stage.
Looking back, the moat in Ningji is similar to Xishi candy. Within Sishi candy, the brand moat is defined as a pleasant mood, which requires the brand to continuously deliver high-quality product experience. Behind this is a complex management detail, because Sishi candy is basically a short-term guarantee product, and has high requirements for the stability of the supply chain. Employees who have been in the company for 15-30 years are everywhere.
The stable moat built by Ningji also delivers a continuous and high-quality experience. Behind this is Ningji’s continuous “emphasis” on the business model, which goes back to the top of the industrial chain.
In the lemon tea category, the fruit corresponding to the supply chain is called “perfume lemon”. It is a hybrid with unstable genes. To this end, the lemon season started the work of “seed conservation and breeding”; In terms of chemical fertilizer selection, the traditional citrus chemical fertilizer points to the sweetness of pulp, while lemon tea needs the fragrance on the skin. Therefore, baoshantou studies chemical fertilizer in the lemon season; In terms of the use of irrigation equipment, on the top of more than 1000 acres of high-quality planting mountains, the agricultural expert team in the lemon season found that the use of spraying equipment is more conducive to the growth of perfume lemon roots than drip irrigation equipment
“I think this thing should be done in the long run, otherwise, I really can’t see much in the short term.” when talking about what Ning Ji did at the source, Wang Jie said jokingly, “we have crossed the source, and if we trace back further, we will come to ‘metaphysics’.”
In addition to the “long-term thinking” in the supply chain, Ning Ji also continues to emphasize the operation of enabling stores, Wang Jie explained: “an investor once asked me why Ningji rarely opened a store in a prominent position, because I don’t want to see a brand store, which withdrew after half a year of operation, which is a great damage to the brand. When we evaluate the store, we must evaluate how long it will return to its original cost, so we are not likely to go to the store with high rent and low return. The brand is not created in this way.”.
For example, under the repeated epidemic, catering enterprises have been impacted. In order to stabilize the operation of existing stores, Ningji set the KPI of Q2 as the daily commodity sales of stores, rather than the number of new stores. In this regard, Ningji launched the “Ningbao Festival” on June 1 to increase the revenue of stores through tens of millions of expenses.
When talking about the significance of the Ningbao Festival, Ningji’s partner a explained: “Before, I would have thought that the full recharge and free peripheral activities of the Ningbao Festival, intuitively speaking, is to make a single store earn more money. But after experiencing the activities of the Ningbao Festival, I found that people around me ‘Wu Yangyang’ recharge, not only recharge by themselves, but also take the quota of friends as the first recharge. This is beyond my expectation, and it makes the store operators more clearly see the brand value and the scale of consumer groups of the Ningbao season; secondly, it also makes me feel confident about the brand value of the Ningbao season More confidence in the future of the season; Third, in addition to innovation, customer stickiness and follow-up repurchase rate have also been improved. The healthy mind of Ning Ji is undoubtedly correct. “
As for the significance of the Ningbao festival to stores, partner B uses the analogy of “cardiotonic”: “in the half month after the Ningbao Festival, my turnover has increased by at least 80%, and a stable repurchase crowd has formed. As long as I cooperate with the rhythm of the Ningbao season, I can greatly improve my profitability”. Before the Ningbao Festival, the Ningji team has communicated with him many times, from advertising drainage, xiaohongshu / Tiktok store exploration, to store vision, drainage publicity and store subsidies.
In the latest Chengdu store operation, partner B settled in a local mainstream business district, which gathered 11 beverage stores. At the beginning of settling in, the turnover of its stores in Ningji ranked last, and climbed to the midstream position in a few months. Judging from the current growth rate, its stores are expected to be among the top 3 by the end of July.
Only when the essence of a thing is good, time will help. Similarly, looking back at the growth chassis of the lemon season, in addition to the continuous time investment, there is also the extra effort, effort and persistence of the management team.
Fourth, back to the basic market of the industry, although the tea market is not a TMT type index growth, it has maintained a stable and rapid growth rate;
If we want to divide lemon tea into different development stages, I think there are four stages:
Therefore, lemon tea is not a new species, but a category with certain consumption consensus. Lemon tea specialty store is an upgrade of lemon tea category.
In terms of regional distribution of consumption, lemon tea category has broken through regional restrictions. Compared with Xishi candy, which focuses on the western market and mainly relies on holiday gift giving scenes to drive sales, lemon tea stores are not trapped in the first tier cities, with the first tier cities accounting for 20.3%, lower than the second and third tier cities accounting for 23.99% and 21.71%.
In a steadily growing market, brands need to “make a difference” through product innovation.
The current SKU number of products in the lemon season is 18, and the formula reserve behind it is more than 2000, and the number of new formulas per week is more than 12. In addition, the R & D team of Ningji quantified the demand and trend of lemon tea products into data in the dimensions of “vision, taste and touch”, so that the catering categories recognized by the senses can become a rational and digital communication language.
Before each new product on the market goes to the market, it must follow the logic of Internet product development and experience a “narrow escape”, including internal testing by professional evaluation teams and public testing by 10000 people, so as to realize the “strict entry and strict exit” of the product pool in Ningji.
The R & D team led by Fu Fu, the founder of Ningji, mostly comes from the professional field of food. The R & D investment is far beyond the industry average, transforming into a stable new “product pool”, bringing consumers lemon tea drinks with taste memory and high recognition, and forming a brand “pop matrix”.
Partner B is impressed by the new speed of the lemon season: “in the lemon season, different new products will be introduced according to different seasonal characteristics. In addition to the main products such as duck excrement jasmine, hand lemon tea and fairy cinnamon oil lemon tea, there are also some new products with limited seasons, and individual products will be customized in cities. In the future, more new products suitable for local tastes will be promoted in the lemon season.”
In terms of the new frequency, the plan of lemon season is to have new products every month. Compared with making several single products every day, the salesperson is more willing to try to make different new products. This enthusiasm will also drive the enthusiasm of sales.
In the homogeneous lemon tea category, the brand mental playing method of Ningji is walking out of a differentiated path and is recognized in the capital market. In July 2021, Ning Ji obtained a round a financing of tens of millions of yuan from ByteDance and Shunwei capital; Only half a year later, in January 2022, Ningji announced the completion of hundreds of millions of yuan of a+ round financing, and the old shareholder ByteDance increased its holdings again, which also confirmed the development potential of Ningji.
Fourth, stable growth period and penetrating brand value;
With reference to the report on the development of lemon tea categories and brands in China in 2021, the size of lemon tea stores in the Chinese Mainland market in 2020 was about 3000, while in 2021, the number exceeded 6000, significantly exceeding the 27.8% growth rate of the current tea market.
Lemon tea products are in a stable growth period. If product creativity supports the revenue growth of Ningji, the brand value penetrating the mind is the long-term advantage of Ningji.
In the early stage of brand development, the logic of “big production + big launch + big channel” of mature brands may not work. Tan Li, a partner of Ningji and CMO, explained that Ningji’s brand strategy pays more attention to how the brand can bring the increment of brand power through secondary communication.
Just as when explaining the Growth Logic of an international sports brand, someone made an image metaphor – “he always stares at 17-year-old young people”. Compared with going out of the circle, Ningji brand pursues the principle of “entering the circle first and then going out of the circle”, cooperates with international skateboarding Festival, strawberry Music Festival and other channels, and makes joint attempts with brands with the same tone.
In terms of visual presentation, Ningji focuses on “exploration and fun” to upgrade the brand’s visual experience. From the chaoku VI with fluorescent green background, the appearance of the IP image of “smashing lemon”, the whole lemon decorative wall in the store, to the collocation of chaoku silver and Ningji green, the store prototype inspired by “space capsule”, and the mellow and concise brand logo, they are actively emphasizing the lemon element. Ningji uses a visual hammer to occupy the associative memory of lemon tea categories, first shaping a differentiated visual symbol, and then implanting it into the minds of consumers.
In terms of location selection strategy, Ningji pursues a mental saturation attack, that is, dozens of Ningji stores are opened in a region to support the brand’s mind.
Therefore, I think brand is the biggest asset of an enterprise. When creating a brand, we need a “big idea”, for example, by occupying a category, to implant the brand into the minds of consumers. Then the brand repeats, repeats, repeats again, passes on the brand core value to the consumer, maintains this powerful brand.
Finally, during the duration, only a small amount of additional capital is required to maintain a high rate of return.
In traditional cognition, the expansion of catering categories will fall into a cost dilemma, that is, the scale effect of catering brand expansion is not obvious. After a certain scale, the marginal effect of cost will increase.
How to improve the degree of product standardization, ensure the supply of raw materials, avoid the increasing marginal effect of cost, and realize the ability of single point replication and rapid expansion is particularly critical to the expansion of chain brands.
In terms of standardization, lemon tea has natural advantages over other current tea products. It is not difficult to make, and it does not require many ingredients, which greatly reduces the threshold for opening a store, which also means that it has the property of parity and sinking.
Previously, partner a has also made other catering chain brands, and the opportunity to promote its cooperation with Ningji is first of all the product power of Ningji. He recalled: “when choosing lemon at that time, the basic milk cover and fruit tea popular in Changsha felt amazing when drinking the first sip of Ningji lemon tea.”.
In addition, after understanding the characteristics of lemon tea, Partner a quickly made the decision of cooperation: “First, its gross profit is higher than that of the drinks on the market; second, the production process is simpler, there is not much mixed in, and the production time and training difficulty are reduced; third, compared with some chain brands, Ning Ji emphasizes going deep into the front-line store management with a learning attitude, supervising and delegating to the front-line stores to check and solve problems, from training and teaching, marketing methods, and then to the taste of the drinks, for me personally The choice of lemon season greatly exceeded the original expectation. “
In terms of raw material supply, the team of Ningji has also gradually rolled out the construction of the supply chain, planting 1000 mu of perfume lemon garden. On the one hand, it is to control the quality, on the other hand, it is also to control the cost and strive for greater profit space for suppliers.
For lemon tea category, supply chain construction is very critical, because there is a lesson from the past. The frost at the end of 2020 once led to a poor harvest in lemon fruit producing areas, resulting in the price of perfume lemon, which was originally 3-4 yuan / Jin, soaring to 35 yuan / Jin. Therefore, only a perfect supply chain construction can resist the risk of external uncertainty.
And the “direct marketing + cooperation” mode of expansion, Ningji, has also made efforts in store operation and store expansion efficiency.
In terms of location decision-making, Ningji assisted in the establishment of business district and positioning according to meituan’s business data and Gaode’s passenger flow data, and followed up the operation of stores in the first, third and sixth months after opening, so as to continue to iterate the ability of location selection;
In terms of store operation, Ningji pushes back the product logic around the efficient and standardized operation of the store. For example, Ningji stores only choose perfume lemon, a kind of fresh fruit, without adjusting the ice volume and sugar volume, to ensure the cup efficiency; In terms of store expansion efficiency, the integrated soft decoration of Ningji stores can greatly shorten the decoration cycle while reducing costs; At the same time, the store area of about 20 square meters has also lowered the threshold for opening a store.
At present, the cycle from store establishment to opening is about 21 days. In the future, with the full application of the Ningji construction system, the whole process of opening a store will be streamlined, key people will be set at each node, and the process of the connection phase will be improved. The opening cycle is expected to be shortened to 7 days.
In terms of supply chain design, store design and product logic, Ning Ji is trying to avoid the “heel of expansion” of catering stores, achieve capacity guarantee, reduce capital investment requirements, and quickly copy at a single point.
Behind the rapid single point replication is the data-driven ability of Ning season, which breaks through geographical restrictions. For example, when partner B went out of Changsha and opened a store in Chengdu, he attached great importance to the proportion of Ningji in the national tea market. For example, how fast was the store opened? What are the store operation data of specific provinces and months? Sales, repurchase rate and conversion rate These data will be shared with partners to help them choose cities and store locations.
Before the opening of cooperation, Ningji will also enter the urban layout of Direct stores, establish benchmarks for subsequent partners, and feed back to the single store operation data, including location, turnover data and takeout orders.
Therefore, although Ningji and Xishi candies are in different categories, different consumption scenarios, and have different business models, their underlying logic is interlinked to some extent. In general, it is to create a differentiated mind, gradually penetrate the regional market, expand rapidly with standards and efficiency, and do more with less money.
Recently, there have been many news on the market that the big consumption track is cold. Whether it is a new consumption listed enterprise, its market value has halved compared with the issue price, or there are fewer investment and financing cases, the marketing cost is difficult to load, or the consumption decision is giving way to the needs of life.
Bain consulting launched an activity in 2018 to track 46 new brands. By 2021, only 17 brands are maintaining growth, and the rest are either stagnant or out of the picture.
But I firmly believe that those consumer enterprises that conform to the long-term compound interest model will eventually wait for the rose of time.
Investing in consumer goods does not need to be so pessimistic, but can see the logic behind crossing the bull and bear. Just like before meeting Sishi candy, Buffett was buried in picking up the “cigarette butt” on the ground and earning the interest margin of the value depression with a speculative mentality.
The biggest miscalculation is “valuation dislocation”. When you use TMT’s tuyere theory to invest in consumption and pursue new concepts and hot topics “from top to bottom”, it is like climbing a peak. Even if the trend is upward, you may step into a deep pit.
At present, the investment in the consumer industry is more like the process of panning for gold sand. We need to be patient again and again, take value as the net, screen out the targets of fake rigid needs, and finally find the gold stone that can be continuously owned.
I believe that “people’s yearning for a better life” will not change, nor will the consumption spiral. The consumer industry still has great prospects.
Author: mark; Source: jinbubo Finance (id:jinbubo), reprint has been authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
- The first stage began in the 1960s and 1970s, when lemon tea became the standard of Hong Kong tea restaurants;
- In the second stage, starting from the beginning of the 21st century, boxed and bottled instant lemon tea emerged, and uni president and Master Kang completed the initial cognition of lemon tea in the Chinese Mainland market;
- In the third stage, around 2006, “lemon tea series” began to appear in the market;
- In the fourth stage, that is, at present, a special shop for lemon tea, represented by the lemon season, appeared.
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