tomato capital Qing Yong: be alert to the “negative effect of catering scale”.
Hello, I’m tomato capital Qing Yong.
Because of the epidemic, I have repeatedly postponed offline meetings. Today, I will do an analysis of the Chinese catering category report for Chinese diners online. I hope my sharing can make you gain something.
The year 2022 will soon be more than half, and the catering industry has become one of the most affected industries. According to the statistics in May, more than 80 district and county-level cities across the country are in a state of normal closure and cannot eat in class, which means that the income of catering enterprises in these cities may be close to zero, while the fixed cost expenditure remains
Several once very successful catering entrepreneurs told me that in the past two to three years, they lost all their savings over the past ten years; Others have mortgaged their houses, borrowed money from banks, borrowed money from friends around them, and even borrowed money from employees, and have been heavily in debt; Many people told me that his enterprise would not survive next month; Others are already offering a 50% or 10% discount for financing, just to protect their “lives”
In November 2021, Haidilao announced that it would close 300 stores: its annual revenue was 41.11 billion yuan and its operating profit was -3.98 billion yuan, a net increase of 145 stores compared with 2020, reaching 1443 stores (the number of stores in mainland China increased from 1205 in 2020 to 1329 in 2021). In fact, by may 2022, a total of 314 stores had been closed.
At the same time, there are some surprising figures:
The report of Yum China in 2021 is still bright: the revenue of US $9.85 billion, the operating profit of US $1.39 billion, the net increase of 1282 stores, an average of 5 new stores per day, and the new entry into 160 + cities;
Taier still bucked the trend: the annual revenue was 3.29 billion, and the operating profit at the store level was 720million. The net increase of stores was 117, reaching the scale of 350, with an average of one new store every three days.
The whole coffee track is in full swing: according to the statistics of narrow door restaurant, the number and amount of financing in the coffee field in 2021 is the largest in the catering track. By may 2022, there had been a net increase of nearly 10000 coffee shops, and now there are 104000 coffee shops in China.
After we have counted the brands of all categories in China, we can see that: barbecue kebabs, Hunan cuisine stir fry, Cantonese tea restaurant, rice noodles, dumpling wonton, fried chicken hamburger, restaurant with meals, seasoning and leisure stewed flavor, new Chinese baking, new snack chain, community fresh food chain and other store models have maintained continuous growth, but the development of local meals has almost stagnated, Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine has continued to show high and negative growth, tea, snacks, spicy hot Japanese ramen, Western food, hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot track is very weak.
All catering entrepreneurs need to think about a question: what is the fundamental point of the difference? How can we cross the cycle and achieve counter trend growth?
I hope you will read this report with thinking.
Review and verification: the general trend of Chinese catering chain and capitalization has not changed and is still accelerating
In 2017, we launched the first report on the catering industry (innovation is never a talent, but a desperate thinking | the first investment and financing report of China’s catering industry). We foresee the future trend of China’s catering capitalization, and initiated the establishment of tomato capital to invest in the catering industry without hesitation.
In 2018, we once again showed the overall picture of China’s catering supply chain (99% of the funds have gone to… | China catering report). We see that China’s catering supply chain is undergoing earth shaking changes, including food processing, fresh-keeping technology changes, and the improvement of cold chain infrastructure in the United States and Japan, as well as in China. China has entered the era of ten thousand stores, and the chain process pressed the fast forward button.
In 2019, we made statistics on the development of the whole category of China’s catering industry (who is the best in China’s catering industry? It’s first published on the whole network). For the first time, we showed the business status of all categories and brands of China’s catering industry, hoping to provide an entrepreneurial map for Chinese catering entrepreneurs.
The report of 2020 was postponed to the beginning of 2021 because of the epidemic. We predicted the capital storm of Chinese catering (20000 words to interpret 2020 Chinese catering, insight into four major trends ｜ the first launch of the whole network). At that time, more than 300 catering investors were present. Facts have proved that the investment and financing events and amount in 2021 reached the highest value in history, and capitalization has become a new variable for the acceleration of catering chain.
According to the comprehensive statistics of narrow door restaurant, in 2021, there were nearly 400 observable investment and financing events in the catering industry, with a total disclosed financing amount of more than 50billion yuan, and nearly 100 investment and financing events with undisclosed financing amounts.
In 2022, some dimensions are being reconstructed and some rules are being rewritten. And I hope you can see!
Data interpretation: what changes have taken place in the catering industry?
In the epidemic era, very few catering brands made money, and the impact of the epidemic exceeded everyone’s expectations.
In 2019, the number of stores nationwide was 9.99 million;
in 2020, the number of stores nationwide was 8.79 million, with a net decrease of 1.2 million. However, through a series of measures in the second half of the year: such as personnel optimization, tax relief, rent relief, catering enterprises supported in the second half of the year;
in 2021, the number of stores nationwide was 8.63 million, which continued to decrease by 160000. The epidemic has not ended, and some diners have been rubbing their hands;
rebounded slightly at the beginning of 2022, and many diners made grand plans. The number of stores nationwide returned to 8.98 million, with a net increase of 360000. Opportunism began to pay a heavy price. From March to April, revenue fell rapidly.
Let’s take a look at the changes in catering revenue. On the whole, the catering revenue from January to February 2022 exceeded that of 2019. However, due to the outbreak of the epidemic again, the catering market, which had gradually recovered in 2021, was hit hard again. In March and April 2022, the revenue was only 293.53 billion yuan and 260.89 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of -16.4% and -22.7%.
In fact, the crisis does not necessarily kill an enterprise. If you cut down the negative cash flow stores and maintain the lowest cost operation, you can still live.
Sometimes, opportunism is the core reason why enterprises are in deep trouble or even die!
2. Changes in the scale, growth and evaluation ranking of various categories in the country
In China’s catering industry, the categories are very diverse, and the value creation required by customers is also different.
(1) hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">Hot pot
Hotpot is the largest category in the revenue scale of China’s catering industry, with a market scale of 550 billion yuan in 2021.
The reason why it has become the largest category of catering has also run out of the brand with a market value of 100 billion, which is related to the de chef of hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, low difficulty in the supply chain, wide audience and strong addiction.
Hotpot can be divided into multiple sub circuits according to flavor type, among which spicy pot is the largest flavor type, which can accommodate multiple listed brands: national all in one, addictive, and the core of taste lies in the difference between the base / soup base rather than the ingredients.
Chaoshan beef hotpot, the second place, has high requirements for the supply chain. The core of the taste lies in the beef itself. Fresh meat has no scale effect than frozen meat, and the tradition of cutting in stores increases manpower. However, the demand for healthy diet continues, and the market scale is not small. Companies that have established supply chain barriers will eat most of the market.
The third place is pork tripe chicken hotpot and Coconut Chicken hotpot, with a high degree of standardization. Pigs and chickens are large-scale ingredients with extremely mature supply chain, which meet the needs of health trends and have a foundation for large-scale development. However, the addiction of taste types is weak, the differentiation of taste types is very small, and the total market volume will be limited.
The fourth is the old Beijing hotpot, which has the lowest investment value. There is no differentiation. The ingredients are mainly mutton. Due to regional limitations, it is difficult to cut into the south.
Currently, there are 517455 hotpot stores in operation in China (about 517000), 269080 new stores (about 269000) and 265424 closed stores (about 265000) from 2021 to may 2022.
Scale ranking: “Haidilao hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot” ranks first in the hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot category with 1315 existing stores; “Wangpo prawns” ranked second, with 918 stores; “Xiabu Xiabu” ranks third with 828 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Banu Maodu hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot” (81) ranks first with a reputation index of 950.4 points. Laowang (147) and Zuotang Youyuan (105) ranked second and third respectively.
The essence of catering is delicious, and Banu is a hotpot brand with Productism as the core. Standing on the opposite side of Haidilao’s serviceism, it first proposed that “service is not Banu’s feature, but hairy tripe and mushroom soup”, and then upgraded to “service is not excessive, pay attention to everything”. The back-end supply chain proposed the concept of “natural without adding, cold and fresh without freezing, and not overnight on the same day”, Become the hotpot brand with the highest brand potential in this year and a half. Therefore, it has achieved high brand loyalty, and there are endless queues.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Nan hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot”, with a net growth of 226, and the number of stores has reached 250, which is the most youthful hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot brand in the market at present; The second place is “Liuji Everbright hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot chicken”, with a net increase of 170, and the number of stores reached 192; In the third place is the “Qiqi Dishan hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot”, with a net increase of 165, and the number of stores reached 165. It is also the first time that Hunan hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot is shortlisted.
There are also two brands in Hunan flavor hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, namely “Dabin family Chuanchuan hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot” and “Dong nitrogen Hu Ji”, which have a high growth in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Whether Hunan flavor hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot will usher in more possibilities is expected in the future.
In the report at the beginning of 2021, I was worried about whether the franchise model relying on Star traffic was sustainable. The data from 2021 to the first half of 2022 gave a clear answer.
Data over the years have repeatedly warned us that no matter the size, speed or popularity of hotpot stores, product quality and Hukou monument are the king. For hotpot brands with dinner attributes, the most important thing is to open a family, not speed.
“Haidilao” took the initiative to close its stores, making it the first in closing its stores, with 314. However, we still believe that “Haidilao” is an admirable hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot brand. We are brave to face the problem. We wish Haidilao to get out of trouble as soon as possible and continue to lead Chinese catering.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot category are beef, tripe, mutton, fat beef, mandarin duck pot, brown sugar Ciba, shrimp slide, hanging dragon, duck blood, etc.
Here, I want to mention brown sugar Ciba in particular, because brown sugar Ciba appears in many categories behind… I’m curious, is it because the products are out of the circle or the price is out of the circle.
Barbecue is a hot category in 2021, and several chain barbecue brands have completed financing in succession.
In the dinner, the standardization difficulty of barbecue is second only to hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, and the difficulty of supply chain is lower than that of traditional Chinese food. There are about 480000 stores and 250billion barbecue plates, which is also imaginative.
We divide barbecue into kebab and barbecue.
At present, there are 363014 stores (about 363000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 218748 stores (about 219000) were newly opened and 185019 stores (about 185000) were closed, with a net increase of 33729 (about 34000). Barbecue categories are growing crazily.
Scale ranking: “Chuanyi full barbecue shop” ranks first in the category of barbecue skewers with 622 existing stores; The number of stores of “crazy roasted wings” ranked second is 610; “Barbecue Research Institute” ranks third with 566 stores.
Ranked by Hukou reputation, “heishu barbecue” (11) stores ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 946.8 points, “Fengmao kebab” (57) and “a long time ago” (80), ranking second and third with 940.6 points and 939.8 points respectively. Both brands have both scale and praise, with a low closing rate.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “barbecue Research Institute”, with a net growth of 495, and the number of stores reached 566; The second place is “night owl little yellow croaker”, with a net increase of 246, and the number of stores reached 555; In the third place is “Chuanyi full barbecue shop”, with a net increase of 197 stores, reaching 622 stores.
The first place of kebab category was 175.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the kebab category are mutton kebabs, streaky pork, roast eggplant, Beef Kebabs, oysters, etc. One of the vegetarian dishes is particularly popular, that is, roasted eggplant.
At present, the number of barbecue stores in operation in China is 115849 (about 116000), 69515 (about 69000) new stores were opened from 2021 to may 2022, 55663 (about 56000) closed stores, and a net increase of 13852 (about 14000). During the epidemic, people’s desire for meat exceeded our imagination.
Scale ranking: “jiutianjia Black Beef barbecue cuisine” ranks first in the barbecue category with 1086 existing stores; At present, there are 556 stores of “Jiushi barbecue”, which ranks second; “Charlie pig barbecue” ranks third with 501 stores.
Ranked by Hukou reputation, “Houzhen Japanese barbecue” (21) ranked first with 958.4 points in the word-of-mouth index, “pine fish Pavilion and beef roast” (13) and “meat sacrifice and roast” (11) ranked second and third with 955.2 and 954 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Charlie pig barbecue”, with a net growth of 362, and the number of stores reached 501; The second place is “wine picking barbecue”, with a net increase of 221, and the number of stores reached 556; “Beimunan barbecue and wine” ranked third, with a net increase of 220 stores and 342 stores.
The growth rate of Jiutian family has fallen out of the top three, the speed of wine picking and barbecue has slowed down, and Charlie pig has quickly ascended. I hope the little pig will be strong and hold the fruit. Beimunan is also growing silently.
The first place for the closure of barbecue category was 205.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the barbecue category are lettuce, streaky pork and pumpkin porridge.
Compared with hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot and barbecue, the concentration of local dishes is very low, and more than 100 stores are already large-scale local dish brands. Local dishes need to set up many SKUs (single products) to meet the dual needs of dinner consumers for “rich” and “delicious”, and sometimes some local unique ingredients, which brings difficulties to the supply chain and kitchen standardization.
Coupled with the natural characteristics of Chinese food, which is “difficult for everyone to adjust”, local dishes show a highly decentralized pattern. Xibei is the largest brand among local dishes, and there are only 362 stores. Compared with other dinner categories, it is still not high, but due to the impact of customer unit price, the revenue scale is still considerable.
In many local cuisines, there are listed companies with A-share and Hong Kong shares, including “Guangzhou Restaurant” and “Tanggong” in Guangdong cuisine, “Xiaonanguo” in Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine, “green tea restaurant” in zhunshang company, “jiumaojiu” in Northwest cuisine, “Quanjude” in Shandong cuisine, “Tongqing building” in Huizhou cuisine, and a series of new third board listed companies, which are not listed here.
Sichuan cuisine currently has 173672 stores (about 174000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 71496 new stores (about 71000) were opened and 90976 stores (about 91000) were closed, with a negative growth of 19480 stores (about 19000). The negative growth is the most in 2021, and it is relatively good in 2022.
Scale ranking: “Zhou Mapo” ranks first in Sichuan cuisine category with 196 existing stores; The number of existing stores of “secret sense” ranked second is 154; “Xudingsheng folk cuisine” ranks third with 120 stores. “Meizhou Dongpo restaurant” has 67 stores, an increase of 5 compared with 2021. It is still the first Sichuan local cuisine brand with a per capita consumption of more than 100 yuan.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Todd casserole” (11) ranks first with 959 points in the word-of-mouth index. I especially like their products and services. “Mr. Fu in Chengdu” (14) and “boss in love with fish” (29) ranked second and third with 945 and 939 points respectively.
In the past, the biggest problem of Sichuan cuisine was that those with scale had no user praise and weak brand power, while those with praise had no scale. This is a problem worthy of our consideration.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “Xiao Si NV Leshan stilted beef”, with a net increase of 101, and the number of stores reached 105; The second place is “Abao boiled fish”, with a net increase of 87 stores, reaching 87 stores; The third place is “Pepper love · boiled fish Sichuan cuisine”, with a net increase of 65 stores and 104 stores.
The first place of Sichuan cuisine was 41.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of Sichuan cuisine are still maoxuewang, sauerkraut fish, Gongbao chicken, Mapo Tofu, husband and wife lung slices, etc.
Hunan cuisine currently has 91015 stores (about 91000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 46997 new stores (about 47000) were opened and 42598 stores (about 43000) were closed, with a net increase of 4399. Its characteristic is that there are many direct selling brands.
Scale ranking: “Pengchu” still ranks first in Hunan cuisine category with 268 existing stores, compared with 458 last year; The number of stores of “kitchen sister-in-law in charge” ranked second is 214; “Maojia Hotel” ranked third with 188 stores, and wangxiangyuan, a listed company on the new third board, fell to 41 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Chef Fei” (60) ranked first with a reputation index of 916.8 points. Like Banu Maodu hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, it adheres to the Productism of chef stir frying now, with high customer repurchase, and is deeply loved by consumers. “Stir fried beef with cooking smoke” (31) and “nongnong Geng Ji · Hunan local cuisine” (51) ranked second and third with 902 and 886.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “lanxiangzi”, with a net growth of 70 stores and 90 stores; The second place is “manager Yang fried meat with pepper”, with a net increase of 31 stores and 43 stores; In the third place is “Chef beard”, with a net increase of 27 stores and 45 stores.
The number one restaurant in Hunan cuisine category was 198.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of Hunan cuisine are stir fried beef, fish head with chopped pepper, farmhouse stir fried meat, and stir fried meat with pepper. Fried meat with pepper has become the most popular Hunan cuisine.
Since chef Fei positioned “stir fried meat with chili”, kitchen smoke has successively launched the strategy of “stir fried beef with chili”. The Hunan style of stir fried meat with chili, stir fried meat with chili and stir fried beef with chili is rapidly blowing all over the country. The fish head with chili is not willing to be outdone, and the Hunan cuisine army is advancing into the country.
At present, there are 132139 stores (about 132000) of Cantonese cuisine in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 64031 new stores (about 64000) were opened, 52879 closed stores (about 53000), and a net increase of 11152 stores (about 11000). The development of Cantonese cuisine is very good, and the core depends on tea restaurants.
Scale ranking: “taihun ice room” ranks first in Guangdong cuisine category with 97 existing stores; “Taixing restaurant” fell to the second place, with 86 existing stores and 105 stores in 2020; “Typhoon shelter tea restaurant” ranks third with 79 stores. There are 29 listed companies in Tanggong, 21 in Guangzhou Restaurant and 27 in taotaoju.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Chaojie” (15) ranks first with 938 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Dashu restaurant” (11) and “Shangyi soup” (18) ranked second and third with 934.2 and 922.6 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “taihun ice room”, with a net growth of 65 and 97 stores; The second place is “Keming ice room”, with a net increase of 43, and the number of stores reached 45; The “Jiuji ice hall” ranked third, with a net increase of 42 stores and 43 stores.
The supply chain of tea restaurants is becoming more and more mature, the customer unit price is lower, and the dishes are rich. They can be operated all the time. They have become the first growth point of Cantonese restaurants, driving the scale of the whole Chinese Cantonese cuisine.
The first place of closing Cantonese cuisine is 30.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Hong Kong style tea restaurant are stir fried beef River, Jinsha shrimp red rice sausage, pineapple oil with ice fire, steamed chicken feet with black bean sauce.
- Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine
Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine include Shanghai Benbang cuisine, hangbang cuisine, Huaiyang cuisine, etc. because the tastes are very similar.
At present, there are 134868 stores (about 135000) of Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 35114 new stores (about 35000) were opened and 49384 stores (about 49000) were closed, with a negative growth of 14270 stores (about 14000). Negative growth in 2021 and 2022.
Scale ranking: “green tea restaurant” ranks first in Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine category with 240 existing stores; The number of “Grandma’s” stores in the second place is 100; “Nanjing big brands” ranks third with 86 stores. There are still 37 Hong Kong listed companies in Xiaonanguo.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Xinrongji” (16) still ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 961 points, and its sub brand “rongxiaoguan” (11); “Shishang Baiwei” (12) and “little cook Huaiyang cuisine” (39) ranked second and third with 937.2 and 935 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “green tea restaurant”, with a net growth of 61, and the number of stores reached 240; The second place is “old duck collection”, with a net increase of 23 stores, reaching 36 stores; In the third place is “alley xiaolongbao”, with a net increase of 15 stores, and the number of stores reached 65. This is a Shanghai Benbang food and beverage brand characterized by xiaolongbao.
The ranking of Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine in terms of scale, reputation and growth has basically not changed.
The first place for the closure of Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine was 21.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine are squirrel mandarinfish, Xiangyou eel paste, grandma’s braised meat, sweet and sour tenderloin, which makes people drool.
Northwest cuisine currently has 64644 stores (about 64000) in business in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 33780 new stores (about 34000) were opened and 27491 stores (about 27000) were closed, with a net increase of 6289.
Scale ranking: “Xibei youmian village” ranks first in the northwest cuisine category with 362 existing stores; The number of stores of “jiumaojiu northwest cuisine” ranked second is 83; “Beijiang Hotel” ranks third with 67 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “jinjiamen” (32) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 927.6 points. “Xibei youmian village” (362) and “meet Chang’an” (15) ranked second and third with 921.4 and 920 points respectively.
Xibei is still the only highlight of Northwest cuisine, a brand with both scale and reputation. In 2021, prefabricated dishes have become a hot topic in the catering and food industry. Jia Guolong Kung Fu dishes launched by Xibei also began to try the take away store model, looking forward to its next report.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “chenjude beef”, with a net increase of 33 and 49 stores; The second place is “Hey Ma Xiang · Jincheng Niuda”, with a net increase of 15 stores and 23 stores; “Shaanxi Laojiu” ranked third, with a net increase of 14 stores and 19 stores.
The number one restaurant in the northwest cuisine category was 35. Several leading brands are in the state of stopping growth, and many small brands are rising. Xibei is still a brand with both scale and reputation.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Northwest cuisine are mutton kebabs, large plate chicken, Xibei gluten, yellow rice cold cakes, etc.
When we analyze Shandong cuisine, we include Beijing cuisine and all roast duck cuisines. Shandong cuisine currently has 78421 stores (about 78000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 40415 new stores (about 40000) were opened and 36102 stores (about 36000) were closed, with a net increase of 4313.
Scale ranking: “shouchailu roast duck” ranks first in Shandong cuisine category with 335 existing stores; The number of outlets of “Liu Fuji Beijing roast duck” ranked second is 183; “Quanjude” ranks third with 86 stores. Among them, only 38 “golden millions” once ranked first.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Beijing Yanyun Beijing Peony roast duck” (5) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 960.2 points. Lu style (6) and Tidu (5) ranked second and third with 954.6 and 953.8 respectively. Four seasons Minfu (21) ranks fourth with a score of 951.8, but if the evaluation threshold is adjusted to more than 10, it still ranks first in terms of public praise.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Liu Fuji Beijing roast duck”, with a net growth of 58, and the number of stores reached 183; The second place is “shouchailu roast duck”, with a net increase of 42, and the number of stores reached 335; In the third place is “Le Ya Song Beijing roast duck”, with a net increase of 23 stores, and the number of stores reached 37.
The first place of Shandong cuisine was 63. Quanjude, A-share listed company, experienced seven negative growth for the first time.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of Shandong cuisine are roast duck, Gongbao chicken, and Xiaodiao pear soup.
From 2021 to may 2022, there were 2838 new stores and 6449 closed stores in Yunnan cuisine, with a negative growth of 3611. For a sketch, this figure is quite high.
Scale ranking: “Yunhai cuisine” ranks first in Yunnan cuisine category with 119 existing stores; The number of “grandma flavor” stores ranked second is 54; “Eggplant Chacha” ranks third with 31 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “diandachi steam stone pot fish” (9) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 959.4 points. “Xiantan steam stone pot fish” (19) and “Laodian mountain village” (8) ranked second and third with 952.6 points and 911 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Yunhai cuisine”, with a net growth of 14, and the number of stores reached 119; The second place is “eggplant Chacha”, with a net increase of 7, and the number of stores reached 31; “Xiantan steam stone pot fish” ranked third, with a net increase of 6 stores, and the number of stores reached 19.
The number one restaurant in Yunnan cuisine category was 6.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Yunnan cuisine are tilapia roasted with Citronella grass, cold rice noodles with shredded chicken, rice noodles in small pot, and steamed chicken with original flavor.
Huizhou cuisine currently has 12379 stores (about 12000) in business in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 4648 new stores were opened and 6633 closed, a negative increase of 1985.
Scale ranking: “small vegetable garden” ranks first in Huizhou cuisine category with 390 existing stores; The number of existing stores of “storm village” ranked second is 74; “Tongqing building” ranks third with 47 stores. The development speed and quality of “xiaocaiyuan” this year are quite good. If the design of store partnership has no IPO obstacles, it may become the next listed catering enterprise in Anhui. If the local chicken is listed, together with tongqinglou and babi steamed bread (Anhui people), Anhui will become the province with the most listed catering companies.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “wooden bucket stinky mandarin fish · Huizhou cuisine restaurants” (12) ranked first with 943 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Mrs. Luzhou” (7) and “Yang Jixing smelly mandarin fish” (16) ranked second and third with 935.4 and 935.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “small vegetable garden”, with a net growth of 133, and the number of stores reached 390; The second place is “huisanshuo · native HUICAI”, with a net increase of 11 stores and 18 stores; The third place is “mandarin fish in wooden barrel · Huizhou cuisine restaurant”, with a net increase of 7 stores, reaching 12 stores.
The first place for closing Huizhou cuisine is 30.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the Huizhou cuisine category are Huizhou stinky mandarin fish, farmhouse braised meat, slate garlic shrimp.
Among the local cuisine brands, we can see that Sichuan cuisine and Hunan cuisine chain brands have developed rapidly in recent years, with wide customer demand, relatively friendly prices, strong aggressive and addictive taste of pepper, and relatively simple supply chain, mainly pork, chicken, beef, fish head, more than 100 chain brands, and their attributes are closer to a single casual meal;
Guangdong cuisine and Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine have relatively limited flavor types, small and scattered ingredients, high standards of ingredients, and more ingredients that are difficult in the supply chain. In theory, they are more suitable to be made into large single stores with high prices, rather than Baidian chain brands.
There are no more than 100 brands of Cantonese cuisine, and there is only one “green tea restaurant” for Jiangsu and Zhejiang cuisine. Northwest cuisine, Yunnan cuisine and Anhui cuisine have only one brand with more than 100 brands, while Shandong cuisine has two brands with more than 100 brands, but they are large but not strong. These small and complex categories are prone to “negative effect of catering scale” after excessive scale.
We often hear the words “scale effect” or “economies of scale”, that is, after an enterprise forms a certain scale, it will generally improve its economic benefits, lower costs, lower prices, better user experience, stronger brands, more advantages in cross regional development, and many other benefits.
But there is also a corresponding “negative effect of scale”. What is the “negative effect of catering scale”?
The negative effect of catering scale refers to the increase in management costs, the increase in the loss rate of stores, the decline in supply chain quality, the decline in user experience, the decline in user evaluation, the instability of products, the lengthening of the return cycle and other situations that occur when a small and complex local cuisine dinner category is over scaled and operated across regions. I call it the “negative effect of catering scale”.
for example, due to the regionalization of taste and the complexity of ingredients and cooking methods, local dishes with dinner attributes will have a “negative effect of scale” after forming a certain scale: the management and operation costs will be greatly increased, the challenges of the supply chain will become larger, the user experience will decline, the price will rise, the cross region will not be accepted, and the brand potential will be weakened, which is what we call the “negative effect of scale”. After the scale of
reaches a certain stage, the growth of scale is inversely proportional to the creation of enterprise value, which has become the curse of local cuisine with dinner attribute. In the past, many brands broke this spell by “store partnership”, which slowed down the emergence of “negative scale effect” to a certain extent, but failed to eliminate it fundamentally. At the same time, its biggest drawback is the normative challenge.
We talked about local cuisine above. Local cuisine is a naturally highly dispersed market, so it is difficult to increase the upper limit of the number of stores, and there is a “negative effect of catering scale”. One of the key points is to achieve “richness” + “delicious” at the same time.
However, the demand is layered, and not all consumption scenarios require “richness” and “delicacy” at the same time. Following this idea, we can find some new directions, and their maximum number of stores is also greatly increased.
Of course, such trade-offs reduce the difficulty of rapid expansion. At the same time, we should also consider the sustainability of single products, which also affects the brand’s life cycle. We have seen the popularity of sauerkraut fish and pepper fried meat, and don’t forget the decline of all the popular products.
At the same time, the rapid development of the brand of single product casual meal is also polishing the supply chain of single product. When the supply chain is fully mature, this product may be everywhere. Will consumers still go to special restaurants for single product casual meal? Crayfish is an example worth thinking about. Which restaurant doesn’t have crayfish now?
The pickled cabbage and fish brand is one of the biggest revenue categories after the leisure of a single meal. Before it is made into a single leisure restaurant, it is only one of the dishes in Sichuan cuisine.
At present, there are 40732 stores (about 41000) of pickled cabbage and fish in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 24558 stores (about 25000) were newly opened and 23220 stores (about 23000) were closed, with a net increase of 1338.
Scale ranking: “fish together” ranks first in sauerkraut fish category with 1474 existing stores, with a net increase of more than 400 compared with 2020, accounting for 1/4 of the total net increase; The number of outlets of “Taier pickled vegetable fish” ranked second is 367; “Xiaoyu No. pickled cabbage, fish and rice” ranks third with 284 stores. If you take away the fast-food attributes of “fish together” and “small fish”, the second and third brands are “Jiang Yuer” with 278 stores and “lemon fish” with 112 stores respectively, plus “Yan Chu” with 104 stores and “nine pots and one hall” with 108 stores, these four brands are direct competitors of Taier in terms of price and scale.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “wangrongcheng Gufa pickled fish” (22) ranked first with 941 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Yuyuyuyu pickled cabbage fish special store” (15) and “Youjia pickled cabbage fish” (64) ranked second and third with 936.2 points and 922.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “fish together”, with a net growth of 470, and the number of stores reached 1474; The second place is “Xiaoyu No. pickled cabbage, fish and rice”, with a net increase of 218, and the number of stores reached 284; In the third place is “Tangji Tongfu golden soup pickled cabbage fish”, with a net increase of 141 stores, and the number of stores reached 169.
The first place for the closure of pickled cabbage and fish was 313.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of sauerkraut fish are laotan sauerkraut fish, brown sugar Ciba, and drool chicken.
At present, the number of grilled fish stores in operation in China is 62678 (about 63000), 34022 new stores (about 34000) were opened from 2021 to may 2022, and 30928 stores (about 31000) were closed, with a net increase of 3094.
Scale ranking: “Bantian demon roast fish” ranks first in the category of roast fish with 1120 existing stores; There are 512 stores in the second place of “willing to take the bait”; “Keep a hand in roast fish” ranks third with 262 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “yipinyuyue roast fish” (16) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 938.6 points. “Bantian demon roast fish” and “Yuku vitality roast fish” with 230 stores ranked second and third with 910.4 points and 906 points respectively.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “Bantian demon roast fish”, with a net increase of 714, and the number of stores reached 1120; The second place is “banyan rice and green pepper grilled fish”, with a net increase of 100, and the number of stores reached 100; In the third place is “Yuku vitality roast fish”, with a net increase of 38 stores, and the number of stores reached 230. The first place for the closure of grilled fish is 101.
The first place for the closure of grilled fish is 101.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The best companion of grilled fish turned out to be Wuchang rice and Flammulina velutipes.
“Bantian demon roast fish” once again became the only Triathlon player with scale, reputation and growth this year. It is worth mentioning that another Chinese baking brand “donggeng Dao” participated by the founder of Bantian demon is also developing well. Similar to “Wallace”, “Xibei”, “xijiade” and “xiaocaiyuan”, they are all believers in the store partnership model. The partnership has once again demonstrated its power in the catering industry, especially in enterprises with dinner attributes.
But compared with the rough partnership model, I prefer the store apprenticeship system of Haidilao. Its dividend bonus model not only stimulates the enthusiasm of store stakeholders, but also does not affect the standardization and capitalization of enterprises and the flexible reform of organizational personnel because it does not actually invest and occupy shares. We all know that partnership is good, but it is best to complete the construction of partnership under the guidance of professional lawyers and on the premise of compliance.
Bullfrog, a recognized niche category, has fewer than 10000 stores nationwide, but has shown strong growth in the past year, and its scale growth in the future is expected.
This is mainly due to the maturity of bullfrog’s upstream supply chain and consumers’ pursuit of high-quality protein under the general trend of consumption upgrading. Bullfrog breeding was vaguely identified as wild animals and was banned in a “one size fits all” manner, but in 2020, the State Council officially announced that bullfrogs can be cultivated and eaten. As a result, bullfrog upstream began large-scale and standardized breeding to solve the problem of bullfrog supply from the source.
At the same time, the formal bullfrog breeding has abandoned the way of feeding with drugs and antibiotics in the past. It has achieved no communicable diseases, is suitable for breeding in all seasons, has a high feed to meat ratio, and has considerable breeding benefits, giving more bullfrog track brands the impetus to integrate the upstream supply chain.
Bullfrogs currently have 7805 stores in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 5596 new stores were opened and 3244 closed, a net increase of 2352.
Scale ranking: “ranalada” ranks first in bullfrog category with 250 existing stores; The number of stores of “frog Xiaoxia”, which ranks second, is 240; “Laofoye copper stove frog pot” ranks third with 209 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “frog three crazy” (11) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 919.8 points. “Frog storm” (5) and “frog encounter · thirteen incense charcoal frog pot” (16) ranked second and third with 906.4 and 901.4 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “frog wow”, with a net growth of 83, and the number of stores reached 203; The second place is “frog Xiaoxia”, with a net increase of 59, and the number of stores reached 240; In the third place is “frog warrior of Wu Song family”, with a net increase of 57 stores, and the number of stores reached 72.
The first place of bullfrog category was 65.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
Charcoal fire bullfrog has become a feature of bullfrog single product, and brown sugar Ciba is almost a versatile explosive of various categories.
At present, the number of crayfish stores in China is 53571 (about 54000). From 2021 to may 2022, there were 39633 new stores (about 40000), 37269 closed stores (about 37000), a net increase of 2364.
Scale ranking: “decadent crayfish” ranks first in the crayfish category with 668 existing stores; “Dashang lobster”, which ranks second, has 499 stores; “Shrimp trace crayfish” ranks third with 220 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “red armor” (20) ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 948.8 points. “Second brother of beautiful shrimp” (10) and “Ju Wei Qu Ji” (14) ranked second and third with 943.6 and 936.6 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Dashang lobster”, with a net growth of 138 and 499 stores; The second place is “shrimp sunburn”, with a net increase of 75, reaching 76; In the third place is “Lu shrimp emperor”, with a net increase of 50 stores, reaching 50. The last two are almost new brands established in 2021.
The first place for the closure of crayfish category is 520.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
Spicy, thirteen spices, garlic and oil stew have become the four core flavors of crayfish.
At present, the number of steak stores in operation in China is 83072 (about 83000), from 2021 to may 2022, 45085 new stores (about 45000), 50690 closed stores (about 51000), a negative increase of 5605.
Scale ranking: “haokelai Steak” ranks first in the steak category with 400 existing stores; Haoxianlai steak, which ranks second, has 164 stores; “Happy esmi steak buffet” ranks third with 144 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “King Steak” (60) ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 939.6 points. “Xidi Steak” (83) and “mosaic T-Bone Steak” (28) ranked second and third with 912.6 and 911.4 points respectively. As Xidi is a sub brand of wangpin group, we have to say that wangpin group still believes in western dinner.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “happy esmi steak self-service”, with a net increase of 35, and the number of stores reached 144; The second place is “haodeheng steak cafeteria”, with a net increase of 16, and the number of stores reached 52; In the third place is “Farley Steak”, with a net increase of 12 stores, and the number of stores reached 29.
The first place for the closure of steak category was 65.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular steaks are filet mignon, sirloin steak, Tomahawk steak, Wellington steak, French fries, pre meal bread, tiramisu and mushroom soup, which are the best steak partners.
At present, there are 60811 stores (about 61000) of Japanese sushi in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 35122 stores (about 35000) were opened and 30537 stores (about 31000) were closed, with a net increase of 4585.
Scale ranking: “ndou sushi” still ranks first with 2117 existing stores, but the number has dropped compared with last year. Its per capita consumption of less than 20 yuan is in sharp contrast to sushi with high customer unit price, and has won significant development; “Fresh catalog sushi”, which ranks second, has 428 stores; “Vie for fresh turn sushi” ranks third with 388 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “shangshangxiaju taverns” (20) ranked first with 962 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Jiuben Yuju tavern” (16) and “Ogawa Yangfeng cuisine” (28) ranked second and third with 951.8 and 949.6 points respectively.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “Chi Nai Japanese style curry egg steamed rice”, with a net increase of 117, and the number of stores reached 169; The second place is “fresh catalog sushi”, with a net increase of 111, and the number of stores reached 428; In the third place was “black eyed bear Sushi Japanese Bento”, with a net increase of 101 stores and 161 stores.
There are 711 Japanese sushi restaurants.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of Japanese Sushi: Kumamoto barbecued ramen, big bone concentrated pig cartilage ramen, loose eggs.
Korean cuisine currently has 68612 stores (about 69000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 42686 stores (about 43000) were newly opened and 36266 stores (about 36000) were closed, with a net increase of 6420.
Scale ranking: “shepherd’s purse Island King bibimbap” ranks first in Korean cuisine category with 513 existing stores; The number of existing stores of “Taixi home”, which ranks second, is 220; “Xishun laver BaoFan” ranks third with 201 stores.
Ranked by Hukou reputation, “general steak Korean restaurants” (13) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 948.8 points. “Aka ak.lab Yangfeng Korean cuisine” (17) and “Yinhan laver steamed rice and fried chicken” (10) ranked second and third with 926.2 and 897.6 points respectively.
Net growth ranking: the first place is still “shepherd’s purse Island King bibimbap”, with a net growth of 198, and the number of stores reached 513; The second place is “niuxihan stone pot bibimbap”, with a net increase of 77, and the number of stores reached 77; In the third place is “meet sun Korean style food dispenser”, with a net increase of 73 stores, reaching 77 stores.
The number one restaurant in Korean cuisine category was 275. Although the king faced a high shutdown, its growth was still greater than that of the shutdown, and it maintained the first position in terms of scale and net growth as last year. I wonder whether the king can continue to be re elected next year?
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Korean cuisine are bibimbap in stone pot, pumpkin porridge, streaky pork, lettuce, cold noodles and soy sauce soup.
Southeast Asian cuisine currently has 8159 stores in operation in China, with 6052 new stores and 3825 closed stores from 2021 to may 2022; A net increase of 2227. This category is also growing by a small margin.
Scale ranking: “mini coconut Thai style stall” ranks first in Southeast Asia with 83 existing stores; The number of stores of “wacheng Thai cuisine”, which ranks second, is 59; “Toot Thai Pavilion” ranks third with 43 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Thai Pu Thai cuisine” (5) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 956.8 points. “Xinshitai” (6) and “Mrs. aliyatai Thai Thai restaurants” (5) ranked second and third with 954.4 and 943 points respectively.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “mini coconut Thai style stalls”, with a net increase of 83 stores, reaching 83 stores; The second place is “toot Thai Pavilion”, with a net increase of 32, and the number of stores reached 43; In the third place is “maojiang Thai private kitchen”, with a net increase of 31 stores, and the number of stores reached 33.
If the store profit model is verified, the niche category has relatively little choice due to the needs of the full format layout of the shopping center. It has a certain negotiating advantage in expanding the stores of the shopping center. However, due to the limitation of the total number of customers and the frequency of re purchase, a single city should particularly restrain the number of stores.
The number one restaurant in Southeast Asia is 24.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in Southeast Asia are dongyingong soup, mango glutinous rice and pineapple fried rice.
At present, the number of seafood stores in operation in China is 97541 (about 98000). From 2021 to may 2022, 42384 new stores (about 42000) were opened and 47323 stores (about 47000) were closed. Seafood continued to grow by 4939 in 2021.
Scale ranking: “xinglunduo seafood cafeteria” ranks first in the seafood category with 112 existing stores; The “xianacridine small Seafood Research Institute”, which ranks second, has 86 stores; “Oyster hero” ranks third with 85 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Ninghai restaurant” (11) ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 939.6 points. “Xuji seafood” (56) and “seafood in charge” (10) ranked second and third with 934.6 and 931.2 points respectively. The store scale of “Xuji seafood” has ranked seventh, and its revenue scale has long been the first in the seafood category. It is a quasi listed enterprise from Hunan.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “xianacridine small Seafood Research Institute”, with a net increase of 82, and the number of stores reached 86; The second place is “offering oysters”, with a net increase of 73 stores, reaching 73 stores; Oyster hero ranked third, with a net increase of 52 stores and 85 stores.
The seafood brand with the largest scale last year has become the first in the closure of seafood stores this year, with 101 stores closed. Do not only catch up with the speed of the dinner category, but also the quality and user reputation.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the seafood category are the signature meat crab pot, pepper and salt skin shrimp, steamed grouper.
We talked about the transformation from local cuisine to casual meals. Another major transformation direction is rice fast food, such as “Mr. rice”, “rural base”, “local chicken”, and various “Hong Kong style tea restaurants”, from local cuisine to fast food.
Rice fast food is the only big business with upgraded quality and not upgraded price. Quality upgrading is reflected in the following four points:
First, consumers pay more attention to food safety and health, and pay more and more attention to the sense of dining experience;
Second, Chinese fast food returns to the operation of stir frying and cooking;
Third, the store environment should be upgraded from simple to leisure, not only clean and tidy;
Fourth, all brands pursue to create small explosive products with high cost performance and high quality.
However, the price band of mainstream brands remains below 30 yuan per capita. With the sharp rise in the price of raw materials in 2021, the price of fast food has basically not risen. How can rice fast food survive?
Without the ability to go deep into supply chain breeding and food processing, the standardized, refined and digital management and operation ability of stores, and the extremely high turnover rate brought by brand power, it is almost difficult to make profits.
This also makes the chain threshold of rice fast food extremely high, and many rice fast food brands without brand added value and rough management have lost in the competition.
At present, the number of Chinese fast food stores in operation in China is 2345142 (about 2345000). From 2021 to may 2022, there were 1112298 new stores (about 1112000), 1153342 closed stores (about 1153000), a negative increase of 41044 (about 41000).
Scale ranking: “Yang Mingyu braised chicken and rice” ranks first in the category of Chinese fast food with 2609 existing stores, but it has decreased by nearly 700; The number of outlets of “Zhang Xiumei and Zhang Jie barbecue and bibimbap” ranked second is 1281, which has also decreased by 300; “Rural chicken” ranked third with 1102 stores, an increase of about 170. The ranking has not changed, but the data quality has changed greatly, and the direct sales rank first.
Ranked by Hukou reputation, “Xiong Tun Da Wan Jing Japanese Style Pork Rice” (92) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 850.8 points. “Hometown chicken” and “nanchengxiang” (123) ranked second and third with 845.4 and 842.6 points respectively.
Strong dragons are hard to beat local snakes, and many foreign brands have not defeated “nanchengxiang”. “Nanchengxiang mode” is worth copying and learning from many regional community fast food direct selling brands!
This year and a half, “Zai Huang Bao” was renamed as “Bao Zai Huang”. After opening to join, it has achieved very good development. Not only has the store scale come up, but also the evaluation is not low.
Recently, the local chicken has also opened to join. As I said in the final reflection of last year’s report: joining is the greatest business model.
In China, all low value-added brands can’t support the standard cost of direct sales. The cost difference of labor, tax and social security will be about 30%. Franchising also greatly mobilized the enthusiasm, capital and social resources of franchisees, and jointly operated stores. In the future, low value-added brands, without exception, should face franchising. Of course, franchising here is not a quick move, but a real understanding of the essence of chain management!
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “out of control cat yuan Qi cooked pilaf”, with a net increase of 541, and the number of stores reached 579; The second place is “xudachuan pork feet with chopped peppers”, with a net increase of 437, and the number of stores reached 442; The third place is “shrimp point Sichuan Hunan boiled”, with a net increase of 370 stores, reaching 678 stores.
790 Chinese fast-food restaurants won the first place.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the Chinese fast food category are Feixi laomu chicken soup, pork with plum vegetables, farmhouse fried meat, farmhouse steamed eggs, pickled fish, chicken with scallion oil, etc.
The scale of “laoxiangji” (1102) still remains the second and third place in the word-of-mouth index. According to its latest A-share prospectus, its revenue in 2021 was nearly 4.4 billion, and its standardized net profit was 139 million. This depends on its penetration into the agricultural breeding end and the production and processing end. It also performed well in building the front-end brand power, forming a huge competitive barrier.
Moreover, the founder made the second generation inheritance plan early, and directly made his son become the controlling shareholder of the company in terms of shareholding. He only retained the veto power. All aspects of the performance of “local chicken” are worth learning from all catering people.
At present, the number of congee stores in operation in China is 69346 (about 69000), 35782 new stores (about 36000) were opened from 2021 to may 2022, and 35063 stores (about 35000) were closed, with a net increase of 719.
Scale ranking: “sanmi porridge shop” ranks first in the category of porridge shops with 1284 existing stores; Manling porridge store, which ranks second, has 1009 stores; “Jiangchuan right, an attitude porridge shop” ranks third with 788 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Huoqi Chaoshan casserole porridge” (15) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 914.2 points. “Yuanxiang Chaoshan porridge” (14) and “Chaozhou Chaoshan casserole porridge” (19) ranked second and third with 901.8 and 900.6 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Jiangchuan right · an attitude porridge store”, with a net growth of 495, and the number of stores reached 788; The second place is the “three rice porridge shop”, with a net increase of 184, reaching 1284; In the third place is the “three uncle porridge shop”, with a net increase of 116 stores, reaching 240.
The number one porridge store category closed was 442.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the porridge category are preserved egg and lean meat porridge, eight treasures porridge, lentil stewed noodles, pumpkin porridge.
Noodles is a race track with WanDian gene. On the one hand, Chinese people have a tradition of eating noodles, and there are many scenes for breakfast, lunch and dinner; On the other hand, the store is small, and the menu is simpler than rice fast food, with a high degree of standardization and easy replication.
Therefore, the powdered noodles track has ushered in an unprecedented capital heat. Several rounds of financing have been completed, including “Ba man”, “San pin Wang”, “Gui Feng Huang”, “meet Xiaomian”, “Chen Xianggui”, “Ma Jiyong”, “Zhang Lala” and “Wu Ye mix noodles”. Noodles is one of the hottest catering formats in capital.
There are mainly two kinds of noodle shops in the market, and we believe that the business logic is established:
Large single product noodle shops with traditional flavor (such as Lanzhou ramen, Hunan rice noodles, Chongqing noodles) have passed the test of time, and one product can support the market of 10 billion yuan;
adopts the innovative style of congregated noodle restaurant, and also adds various kinds of toppings, stewed snacks, kebabs, fried goods, drinks and other staple foods, which are all innovations aimed at the tastes of modern people and meet more diverse consumer needs.
In addition to Lanzhou ramen, the core of other categories are “boiling”, “stewing”, “frying” and “baking”, and the degree of standardization is very high. The key lies in the supply chain. Once the store model is verified successfully, it can be quickly scaled up.
Another discovery is that the geographical restrictions of traditional flavor types have been broken. On the contrary, the brand development that is separated from the development of territorial cities is better: “meet Xiaomian” has more than 60% of its stores in Guangdong, “Ba man rice noodles” has more than 60% of its stores in Beijing, “Gui Feng Huang” is almost all opened in Beijing, and the predecessor of Guangxi’s largest rice flour brand “sanpinwang beef noodles” is “Guizhou Huaxi beef noodles”, All kinds of new brands of Lanzhou Ramen are opening stores in Shanghai.
At present, the number of noodle shops in operation in China is 610401 (about 610000), 247060 (about 247000) were newly opened and 273649 (about 274000) were closed from 2021 to may 2022, with a negative growth of 26589 (about 27000).
Scale ranking: “Wuye noodles” ranks first in the noodle restaurant category with 1236 existing stores; The number of stores of “Mr. Li beef noodles” ranked second is 965; “Evergreen maixiangyuan” ranks third with 765 stores. “Ajisen Ramen” retreated to the fourth place with 705.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “laowanhui Shaanxi handmade noodles” (72) ranked first with a reputation index of 908.6 points. “Hefu Laomian” (392) and “zuiman” (86) ranked second and third with 880.6 and 879 points respectively. It can be seen that the store size and user reputation of noodle shops can be combined.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Wuye noodles”, with a net growth of 954, and the number of stores reached 1236; The second place is “Chen Xianggui Lanzhou beef noodles”, with a net increase of 194, and the number of stores reached 202; Ma Jiyong ranked third, with a net increase of 172 stores and 185 stores. With the support of capital, these three companies have achieved rapid development.
326 noodle shops ranked first in the category of closing.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the noodle restaurant category are loose eggs, fried dumplings with black pork, and spicy beef rice.
At present, there are 182469 stores (about 182000) of rice noodles and noodles in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 95955 stores (about 96000) were newly opened and 90495 stores (about 90000) were closed, with a net increase of 5460 stores.
Scale ranking: “nameless rice noodles” ranks first in the category of rice noodles and noodles with 2588 existing stores; “Mengziyuan bridge rice noodles”, which ranks second, has 735 stores; “Axiang rice noodles” ranks third with 733 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Guizhou rice noodles of Guifeng” (12) ranked first with 935.8 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Zhao Tianqi rice noodles company” (10) and “rice fresh chopped pepper rice noodles” (14) ranked second and third with 890.6 and 871.4 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “nameless rice noodles”, with a net increase of 664, and the number of stores reached 2588; The second place is “small snail powder”, with a net increase of 284, and the number of stores reached 601; In the third place was “fried rice noodles with small flowers in Xinjiang”, with a net increase of 284 stores, and the number of stores reached 326, becoming a new growth leader.
The first place of the closing of rice noodles and noodles was 580.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of rice noodles are bridge rice noodles, snail noodles, tomato rice noodles, sausage noodles, beef noodles, etc. In last year’s report, we found that the best seller of “Changsha” is not original powder, but halogen powder.
Pasta with stuffing includes steamed buns, steamed buns, small steamed buns, fried and boiled dumplings, wonton (wonton) and Guokui cakes. They all contain “meat”, “vegetables” and “noodles”, which do not need other collocations. They often appear as breakfast and lunch alone.
Stuffing innovation is the trend in recent years. One is the integration of North and south, such as bringing Cantonese style fresh shrimp and crab seeds wonton to the northern market; The other is simply brain opening. You must have heard that Luoshi powder, Laoganma, crayfish, hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot seasoning, pepper fried meat and so on are all used as stuffing.
Staple foods should eventually return to daily consumption, so there is no need to innovate for the sake of innovation.
In addition to the innovation of stuffing, there is also the innovation of consumption scenes, such as “Baoshi night steamed stuffed bun”, making fried steamed stuffed bun and small ones with Chengdu hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot flavor, and choosing the night snack scene, which forms a time difference with breakfast. It is said that the daily revenue of the first 20 square meters store in Chengdu can exceed 20000, and the night steamed bun is very popular across the country, which is deeply loved by young people.
Through the innovation of the store model, uncle Xiong reduced or even removed the area of the food in the hall, mainly packed fresh food to take out, and entered the community and vegetable market, thus achieving rapid development.
At present, there are 187640 stores (about 188000) in the business of steamed buns in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 77545 stores (about 78000) were newly opened and 75080 stores (about 75000) were closed, with a net increase of 2465.
Scale ranking: “Barbie steamed bun” ranks first in the category of steamed bun with 3915 existing stores; The number of outlets of “Laotaimen Tangbao”, which ranks second, is 1816; “San Jin Tang Bao” ranks third with 1403 stores.
Ranked by Hukou reputation, “Xinyuansu style fried pork” (43) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 882.2 points. “Tin cage · Wuxi Xiaolong” (25) and “1661 sesame oil cabbage bag” (10) ranked second and third with 854 and 837 points respectively. Xiaoyang Shengjian ranks fifth in the 267 family word-of-mouth index. Xiao Yang Shengjian may become the next IPO.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Sanjin Tangbao”, with a net growth of 496, and the number of stores reached 1403; The second place is “Barbie steamed bread”, with a net increase of 416, and the number of stores reached 3915; In the third place is “Baoyao night steamed stuffed bun”, with a net increase of 309 stores, and the number of stores has reached 310. We hope that “Baoyao night steamed stuffed bun” will continue to grow to see whether night can coexist with day.
The first place in the category of steamed buns and buns was 507.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in steamed bun category are Yang Sheng Jian, duck fan soup, rattan pepper shrimp Sheng Jian, and crab powder Sheng Jian.
Currently, there are 112214 stores (about 112000) of dumpling wonton in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 53388 stores (about 53000) were newly opened and 46421 stores (about 46000) were closed, with a net increase of 6967 stores, of which 90% was before May 2022.
Scale ranking: “auspicious wonton” ranks first in the dumpling wonton category with 2221 existing stores; The number of stores of “Yuanji dumplings” ranked second is 1785; Ruyi wonton ranks third with 1504 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “shuangheyuan dumplings” (17) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 954.2 points. “Chuange fish dumplings” (40) and “grandma Zhao dumplings potstickers Bistro” (28) ranked second and third with 906.4 and 853.2 points, respectively. “Xijiade” (721) ranked 15th with an 802.8 score.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “Yuanji dumplings”, with a net growth of 1090, and the number of stores reached 1785; The second place is “Uncle Xiong”, with a net increase of 184 stores and 228 stores; In the third place is “No. 9 old Shanghai wonton”, with a net increase of 136 stores and 372 stores.
“Yuanji dumplings” and “Uncle Xiong”, two fresh dumpling take out brands, have become the biggest highlights of the dumpling wonton category in 2021, and we hope to continue to maintain this growth rate in 2022.
The first place of dumpling wonton category was 803.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in dumpling wonton category are shrimp three delicacies, fresh shrimp and crab roe wonton, sauce bone, pine nuts and potato shreds. Xijiadeba list product popularity word cloud, is still dumpling ceiling
At present, there are 120294 stores (about 120000) in business in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 68411 stores (about 68000) were newly opened, 54934 stores (about 55000) were closed, and a net increase of 13477 stores (about 13000) has been in the state of growth from 2021 to may 2022.
(10) Spicy boiled vegetables
At present, there are 162061 stores (about 162000) of spicy hot and spicy dishes in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 85805 stores (about 86000) were newly opened and 99750 stores (about 10000) were closed, with a negative growth of 13945 stores (about 14000).
Scale ranking: “Yang Guofu Malatang” ranks first in Malatang cuisine category with 5190 existing stores, with 5488 in 2020; The number of stores of “Zhang Liang Malatang”, which ranks second, is 4749; “Sichuan soul hat brand goods and vegetables” ranks third with 1057 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “spicy Wuye · maocai” (38) ranked first with 845.4 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Laojie mixed Lang dry mixed spicy hot” (13) and “Sanfeng maocai” (11) ranked second and third with 828.4 and 821.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “old street called pan Malatang”, with a net growth of 660, and the number of stores reached 667; The second place is “liuwenxiang Huanan big bowl spicy hot”, with a net increase of 431, and the number of stores reached 585; In the third place is “maodaxian maocai”, with a net increase of 408 stores, and the number of stores reached 528.
“Old street called pan Malatang” and “string of incense on the side of the road” belong to Chengdu Mobi holdings, which is the second growth curve under the development stall of the side of the road in 2021, almost driving a dry mix called pan Malatang category. However, the durability of this category still needs to be verified with time and business ability. We continue to look forward to its scale and growth.
Spicy hot and spicy dishes rank first in the category of closing stores, up to 1701.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of spicy and scalded vegetables are Flammulina velutipes, baby vegetables, quail eggs and spicy beef.
At present, the number of Western fast food stores in operation in China is 313103 (about 313000), 183954 (about 184000) new stores were opened from 2021 to may 2022, 140635 (about 141000) closed stores, and a net increase of 43319 (about 43000). Both 2021 and 2022 will maintain a relatively large net growth.
Scale ranking: “Wallace” ranks first in the western fast food category with 20084 existing stores; The number of stores of Zhengxin chicken chops, which ranks second, is 13689; “KFC” ranks third with 8754 stores, but Yum China’s revenue in 2021 was nearly US $10billion, and its operating profit was US $1.39 billion. Its revenue and profit were far more than the sum of the first and second places. Foreign brands are still large and strong. I hope that such a world-class brand can appear in China as soon as possible and go global.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “site pizza” (30) ranks first with 915 points in the word-of-mouth index. Le Caesar (142) and Pisa Marcano (58) ranked second and third with 906.6 and 896.4 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Wallace”, with a net growth of 5133 and the number of stores reaching 20084; The second place is “KFC”, with a net increase of 1347, and the number of stores reached 8754; In the third place is “tastine”, with a net increase of 956 stores and 1311 stores. It is a new cutting-edge brand in Fujian that came out in 2021 and is positioned as a Chinese hamburger.
In addition, “McDonald’s” opened 748 stores, with 5339 stores; “Pizza Hut” opened 490 stores, with 2691 stores; “Delta” opened 151 stores, with 532 stores; “Shake shack” has opened 10 new stores, and the number of stores has reached 24. There were 1431 “Burger King” stores and 2395 “DEX” stores, all without growth rate.
There are 3956 western fast food restaurants in the first place.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the western fast food category are French fries, cylindrical ice cream, old Beijing chicken rolls, spicy chicken burgers, and New Orleans Roasted wings.
At present, there are 10588 stores (about 11000) of light vegetarian food in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 5596 new stores were opened and 4385 closed. A net increase of 1211.
Scale ranking: “Shaye light food” ranks first in the light vegetarian food category with 446 existing stores; The “super deer team”, which ranks second, has 263 stores; “No valley light food” ranks third with 203 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Ye Ye Bodhi” (7) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 964.4 points. “One leaf, one world” (25) and “Sanskrit vegetarian tea space” (5) ranked second and third with 906 and 896.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Shaye Qingshi”, with a net growth of 121; The second place is “super deer team”, with a net increase of 106; “Warm lemon light food” ranked third, with a net increase of 89 stores.
206 light vegetarian food stores were closed.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes of light vegetarian food are vegetarian duck, love tassa and Lohan noodles.
We found a group of interesting data in the survey some time ago. You can pay attention to that is, the total per capita customer unit price of takeout is less than 30 yuan, accounting for more than 80%, but there are few large chain brands. The customer unit price of most large chain brands is between 30-40 yuan. In this price band, the sales of large chain brands account for more than 60%.
Everyone can think about their respective values from it. I won’t make an arbitrary interpretation here.
At present, the number of tea stores in operation in China is 425455 (about 425000). From 2021 to may 2022, 233093 new stores (about 233000), 248303 closed stores (about 248000), a negative increase of 15210 (about 15000).
Scale ranking: “Honey snow ice city” ranks first in the tea category with 16225 existing stores; The number of stores of “book also burns fairy grass” which ranks second is 6497; “Guming” ranked third with 6346 stores, and “Baidao tea” ranked fourth with 5535 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “boiled leaves” (10) still ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 916.6 points. “Mixed juice” (38) and “shisan tea” (20) ranked second and third with 906.8 and 905.6 points respectively.
In the past two years, there have been some new Chinese style pure teahouses with space experience, whose user experience has been recognized by everyone, and many capitals have also participated in the investment. However, the low turnover rate and the weak addiction of low sugar attribute lead to the low efficiency of single store revenue. The store profit model has yet to be verified. In the future, the value increase point may be realized through product retail after the establishment of high added value of the brand.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Honey snow ice city”, with a net growth of 5126, and the number of stores reached 16225; The second place is “tea Baidao”, with a net increase of 3499, and the number of stores reached 5535; In the third place is “aunt Hushang”, with a net increase of 2457, and the number of stores reached 4401.
The cutting-edge brand “Ningji” opened 404 stores immediately after its establishment for more than a year, setting off a wave of hand made perfume lemons; “Naixue’s tea” added 416 stores, and the number of stores reached 906, basically doubling; “Happy tea” added 169 stores, and the number of stores reached 865. The growth rate and increment of most tea brands have slowed down, and “tea Baidao” still maintains a high opening rate, and is still the tea brand with the largest number of 10000 single stores on online dual platforms.
Among all catering categories, I think the tea category is also the category with the most takeaway attribute:
- The time difference of takeout does not significantly affect the user experience;
- Gross profit is enough to support the deduction, distribution and marketing costs of the takeout platform;
- With catering peak sales, the use of resources on the takeout platform has formed a good complement.
We can see that meituan Longzhu has almost become the largest tea investment company in China: “Xicha”, “miyue ice city”, “Guming”, “manner coffee”, etc., which are all important investors.
The number of tea and beverage stores closed was 1817.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular tea products are Yangzhi manna, soymilk Jade Kirin, watermelon Bobo, jasmine milk green, soymilk rice and potato.
“Tea Baidao” launched black lacquer (strawberry mulberry), mango egg honey (sterile edible yellow swan eggs in milk tea), ice cream cake milk tea;
“happy tea” launched Cool BlackBerry mulberry, succulent peach and plum, succulent kiwi fruit;
“Naixue’s tea” launched domineering jade Mandarin, duck excrement fragrant treasure tea, domineering black mulberry;
“books also burn fairy grass” launched orange man Rosa camellia, raw coconut lemon milk, mulberry berries, etc.
Product innovation is the soul of tea brands to keep consumers enthusiastic. It is difficult for a simple popular product without a brand of continuous innovation to exceed the popularity of 3 years.
The innovations of “tea Baidao”, “happy tea”, “Naixue’s tea” and “book also burns fairy grass” are different, but they all see the same product. Even the “Honey snow ice city” also makes strawberry and mulberry out of the circle through the “blackening” of the Snow King.
After developing unpopular fruits, it is estimated that many vegetables will also be targeted for further innovation.
In the past year and a half, the popularity of coffee has been continuous, billions of hot money has flowed in, almost all tea brands are incubating coffee brands, and boutique coffee in various regions are also exploring the road of scale. The scenes of the coffee track remind people of the outbreak of new tea in those years.
For Chinese people, coffee is more and more like consumer goods from imported products, and there is a great trend to surpass tea. During the recent closure of the Shanghai epidemic, “I want to buy coffee!” Shanghai has become the city with the largest number of cafes in the world, but the coffee demand in the sinking market has not been fully leveraged, so there is a huge space for imagination.
The “third space” core of “Starbucks” meets the needs of urban white-collar workers for flexible office and business networking. Of course, it also has quality and refreshing functions.
Convenience store coffee and ration coffee follow the parity route. They focus on the most essential functional demand of coffee – “refreshing” function for coffee Xiaobai; On the other hand, high-level coffee players are no longer satisfied with popular coffee. They are extremely exquisite in beans and technology, and an endless stream of fancy ideas have emerged. More and more first and second tier cities have sprung up boutique coffee shops and creative coffee shops.
As the coffee market matures, boutique coffee and all kinds of creative coffee are also becoming popular.
At present, the number of coffee stores in operation in China is 103694 (about 103000), 48905 new stores (about 49000) were opened from 2021 to may 2022, and 39281 stores (about 39000) were closed, a net increase of 9624.
Scale ranking: “Ruixing coffee” ranks first in the coffee category with 6841 existing stores; Starbucks, which ranks second, has 6518 stores; “McDonald’s maccoffee” ranks third with 2145 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “feincoffee Fei coffee” (10) ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 920.8 points. “Mixhouse coffee” (14) and “something for” (12) ranked second and third with 919 and 916.6 points respectively.
From the perspective of concentration, coffee has also embarked on the fast track of chain. In 2022, medium-sized chain coffee brands took the lead, with an amazing growth rate.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Ruixing coffee”, with a net growth of 1945 and 6841 stores; The second place is “McDonald’s coffee”, with a net increase of 1371, and the number of stores reached 2145; Starbucks ranked third, with a net increase of 915 stores and 6518 stores.
“Nova coffee” opened 904 new stores, and the number of stores reached 1083; The sub brand “lucky coffee” of “Snow Ice City” added 538 new stores, and the number of stores reached 605; With the help of convenience bee stores, the sub brand “sleepless sea” of “convenience bee” has opened 338 stores a year; “Tims” opened 313 stores, and the number of stores reached 448; “Manner coffee” opened 292 stores, and the number of stores reached 409; “M stand” opened 159 stores, and the number of stores reached 173.
The core of this round of large-scale growth of coffee chains is the upgrading of de space. In the past, almost all coffee brands that have been successful in China based on the third space are “Starbucks”, and almost all brands that learned to make space from “Starbucks” have declined without exception.
Because the coffee brand based on space value not only needs to make consumers pay for the space (decoration depreciation, rent) and increases the product cost, but also the leisure and business attributes of coffee will make the space produce an ultra-low turnover rate, which will lead to the inefficient space-based coffee brand.
In the past, “Starbucks” brought rent dividends and consumer enthusiasm dividends through brand power, but with the gradual disappearance of rent dividends and intensified competition, space may become a burden for “Starbucks” in first tier cities, and the dividends in low tier cities will still be.
A hundred schools of thought contend, who can really win in the end, and how much will the final retention rate be? Next year’s category report will announce their first academic year results.
The number of coffee stores closed was 889.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular coffee products are raw coconut latte, meteorite latte, Matcha star bingle and raw coconut velvet latte.
It is worth mentioning that in the continuous research of a group of users, the selection rate of American + concentrate increased from 30% in 2017 to 60% in 2020, ranking second only to latte. The addictive value of pure coffee is gradually highlighted.
With the economic development, China’s night economy is at the inflection point of the industry, spreading from coastal areas to inland, and young people will no longer sleep at 12 o’clock. “Early C (coffee) – late a (alcohol) – alcoholic beverages)”, night snack and after dinner drinks have increasingly become the norm of life.
Moreover, a big change is that in the past, the nightlife space was more social networking for strangers, but now it is social networking for acquaintances, but shopping malls (shopping malls) usually close before 10 o’clock, and the third space of nightlife provided by pubs for acquaintances’ social networking is relatively scarce.
Compared with overseas countries, Britain has pubs (bars), the United States is bar (PUBS), and Japanese taverns have long become the spiritual sustenance of migrant workers after work. Compared with 1825 bars per million people in Japan, there are only 29 bars in China. This gap is still very large.
Therefore, based on the improvement of the disposable income level of Chinese people, the awakening of individualism and women’s sense of autonomy, the increase of people’s work pressure, and the increasingly clear demand for the third social space outside the family, it is expected that the Chinese pub market will continue to grow in the next five years.
At present, the number of restaurants in operation in China is 52951 (about 53000), 33039 (about 33000) were newly opened from 2021 to may 2022, 18763 (about 19000) were closed, and a net increase of 14276 (about 14000).
Scale ranking: “Helens Helens” ranks first in the category of taverns with 890 existing stores; The number of outlets of “youbulao fine brewed beer”, which ranks second, is 856; “Taishan puree beer” ranks third with 417 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “commune” (73) ranks first with a word-of-mouth index of 916.8 points. It has both scale and word-of-mouth, and has become the third social space loved by many young, fashionable, sophisticated people. “Bottle planet drinking company” (16) and “play pub” (39) ranked second and third with 913 points and 898.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Helens Helens”, with a net growth of 541, and the number of stores reached 890; The second place is “youbulao refined beer”, with a net increase of 309, and the number of stores reached 856; In the third place is the “first half step Britain pub”, with a net increase of 227 stores, reaching 247 stores.
The first place for the closure of taverns is 117.
In addition, the combination of bar and meal adds the full-time attributes of the pub: Chinese food, afternoon tea, dinner, and night show. This mode greatly improves the efficiency of space use, which is the efficiency and user experience upgrading of traditional bars.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the tavern category are walnut roast chicken (Walnut music tavern has 311 stores), shredded potato with Thai pepper, spicy chicken, maoxuewang, and refined beer.
There are two major branches of marinated flavor, leisure marinated flavor and seasoned marinated flavor. The former is mainly chicken, duck and other poultry products; The latter is mainly red meat such as beef and pork, and there is an additional step of on-site preparation, which requires the clerk to cut and mix materials.
Leisure Luwei track has run out of three listed companies, “Huang Shanghuang”, “Zhou Heiya” and “Juewei duck neck”. However, there are no barriers in the product side of leisure stewed food and seasoned stewed food, and the boundary has gradually become blurred. Many brands will operate two categories at the same time.
But in fact, there are still great differences in the minds of consumers. For example, few consumers buy duck neck and chicken feet to accompany meals, and few consumers buy beef, pork head and husband and wife’s lung slices to make snacks. Similarly, the blurring of the boundary may seem to increase the sales scene, but in fact, customers may not become the first choice when choosing, so we should think clearly about this problem.
The demand for leisure flavor will be greater in the high-line market and business districts, while the flavor with food is more suitable for low-line cities, communities and vegetable markets. The chain degree of these places is relatively low, and the competitors are more local brands and self-employed businesses. Leisure halogen sinking will face certain challenges. Leisure halogen head brand is more suitable to achieve sinking layout by acquiring or creating a halogen brand with meals.
While the properties of the traditional stewed food, such as ready to cut and ready to mix, although the experience is better, at the same time of sacrificing efficiency, the distribution rate of food materials of franchisees is low, and there are great risks in food safety control. In order to run out of the large-scale chain, we need to reduce or even give up the current system and realize the industrialization as much as possible. “Ziyan Baiwei chicken” and “Liaoji Bangbang chicken” are all representatives of the upgrading of stewed food.
Similar to the logic of spicy hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot, stewed flavor is also a highly inclusive flavor type, so there is a saying of “stewing everything in one pot”. But from the category, we can see that the most mainstream of stewed duck is duck by-products. Now the competition of duck by-products is very fierce, and many listed enterprises have run out.
The stewed chicken claw is growing rapidly. We found that the growth quality of “hemp claw” in 364 stewed chain brands is very high, with an increase of 255, the number of stores reaching 320, a very low closing rate and a high regional concentration. The founder applied classical management to the management services of franchisees and achieved good results.
In recent years, halogen track has also carried out product innovation. In addition to cold halogen products such as “Juewei duck neck”, “Zhou Heiya” and “claw claw”, hot halogen, fresh halogen and sauce halogen brands have also appeared in the market.
At present, there are 276049 stores (about 276000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, there were 140768 new stores (about 141000), 104825 closed stores (about 105000), and a net increase of 35943 stores (about 36000).
Scale ranking: “Juewei duck neck” ranks first in the halogen category with 13793 existing stores; Ziyan Baiwei chicken, which ranks second, has 5649 stores; “Huang Shanghuang” ranks third with 3859 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Ji Feng’s first-hand duck neck” (25) ranked first with 832.4 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Xiang Fei duck” (34) and “duck leader” (40) ranked second and third with 826 and 823.8 points respectively.
Net growth ranking: the first place is “Zhou Heiya”. Due to the opening of franchise, the net growth is 1373, and the number of stores has reached 2773; The second place is “Juewei duck neck”, with a net increase of 1044, and the number of stores reached 13793; “Ziyan Baiwei chicken” ranked third, with a net increase of 989 stores, reaching 5649 stores.
The first place for the closure of bittern products is up to 2489.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the stewed food category are husband and wife lung slices, duck neck, duck head, Baiwei chicken, hot and sour kelp silk, rattan pepper chicken.
In my speech last year, I mentioned that the gate of bittern may be closing. But “everything has cracks”. In the past few years, the Luwei track has been very quiet, and few cutting-edge brands have appeared. Once they appear, they are either acquired or integrated by Luwei leading investment.
However, in 2021, several independent halogen brands with high-speed development, such as “more than nine meat”, “chrysanthemum blossom” and “claw claw”, have obtained several rounds of financing, so there are still huge opportunities for the whole halogen track in the future, and there is no so-called window closing theory.
At present, the number of snack stores in operation in China is 629045 (about 629000). From 2021 to may 2022, 307483 new stores (about 308000) were opened and 311057 stores (about 311000) were closed, with a negative growth of 3574. Snacks are still high opening and high closing, but the total amount remains basically unchanged.
Scale ranking: “Qiaotou spareribs” ranks first in the snack category with 2004 existing stores; At present, the number of stores of “Xijie Fried String”, which ranks second, is 1307; “Black classic” ranks third with 1166 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “xishengyuan” (15) ranks first with 859.4 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Thirty six flavor craftsman pig feet” (12) and “Liyin sausage powder” (28) ranked second and third with 856.2 and 854.8 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Xi Jie Fried String”, with a net growth of 1040, and the number of stores reached 1307; The second place is “Kuafu fried chain company”, with a net increase of 823, and the number of stores reached 955; “Agui potstickers” ranked third, with a net increase of 330 stores and 491 stores.
Because of “Xijie Fried String” and “Kuafu Fried String company”, the fried string category has become the biggest highlight in 2021. This year will be the most critical year, and the focus is to hold on to the country.
There are 798 snack shops in the first place.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular snack categories are xiaolongbao, stewed and braised, stinky tofu, fried dough sticks, tofu brain, and rougamo.
The current baking market in China is still characterized by rapid iteration of products and brands. Pork floss scallops, cheese cakes and dirty bags, which were once very popular, have gradually been squeezed out of the public view by cassava and peach crisp.
We are firmly optimistic about the brands of offline on-site baking stores. The products made in stores can provide the taste and experience of products with far more than long-term warranty (longer shelf life), which is also in line with the general trend of overall consumption upgrading.
What offline stores need to do is to improve the maturity of the supply chain, use frozen dough and other means to simplify store operations, control costs, enhance product iteration ability, and form a mental baking brand.
At present, the number of bakery stores in China is 369932 (about 369000), with 151430 new stores (about 151000) and 151097 closed stores (about 151000) from 2021 to may 2022. There was a net increase of 333 stores, and the number of stores was almost unchanged.
Scale ranking: “Milanese cake” ranks first in bread baking category with 1612 existing stores; The number of stores of “Happy Cake” in the second place is 976; Haolilai ranks third with 941 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Uncle Xicun’s stores” (32) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 917.4 points. “Canaan” (15) and “dainty bakery” (10) ranked second and third with 915.2 and 905.6 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “milanesi cake”, with a net growth of 498, and the number of stores reached 1612; The second place is “vilnas Italian handicraft cake”, with a net increase of 308, and the number of stores reached 575; Mubafu flower cake ranked third, with a net increase of 292 stores, reaching 464 stores.
As many as 568 bakery stores closed first. When the brand once ranked second in the scale, it was complained to our platform that it was a quick move and strongly opposed to giving awards. However, based on the objectivity of the platform, we still gave awards.
In fact, there is no need to fight for temporary success or failure. Time will give a fair answer for every effort and value creation.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular desserts in the bread baking category are wife cakes, honey cakes, egg tarts, plain milk shellfish, taro snow shellfish, and semi cooked cheese.
New Chinese baking is the highlight of 2021:
Among the bakery categories, Chinese bakery brands performed most prominently in 2021, and the “Mo Mo dim sum bureau” and “Hutou bureau” both received several rounds of financing. A typhoon of Chinese dim sum quickly blew up across the country, and Chinese dim sum stores were in full bloom across the country.
Scale ranking: “luxihe Taosu” ranks first with 338 stores, followed by “taixia pastry” with 226 stores, and “Zhanji palace Taosu” ranks third with 174 stores.
Ranked by Hukou monument: “Xianghe Bobo shop” (16) ranked first with 901.4 points. “Master Bao cake” (111) and “Mo Mo dessert bureau” (67) ranked second and third with 860.8 and 858.4 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “luxihe Taosu”, with a net growth of 183 and 338 stores; The second place is “taixia pastry”, with a net increase of 157, and the number of stores reached 226; In the third place, “donggeng road snack shop”, the net growth was 79, and the number of stores reached 80.
However, the number one Chinese baking category closed was 79.
“Luxihe Taosu”, “Zhanji palace Taosu” and “master Bao pastry” all originated in Yingtan, Jiangxi Province. Yingtan, Jiangxi Province is known as the hometown of Chinese pastries. Most of the basic techniques of new Chinese baking snacks benefit from the inheritance of Jiangxi masters.
At present, the number of dessert stores in operation in China is 141085 (about 141000), with 76153 new stores (about 76000) and 78585 closed stores (about 79000) from 2021 to may 2022, a negative growth of 2432.
Scale ranking: “DQ” ranks first in the dessert category with 1185 existing stores; “Fresh taro Fairy”, which ranks second, has 721 stores; “Mr. Xu fried yogurt in Bianliang” ranks third with 523 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “Godiva” (88) ranks first with 901.8 points in the word-of-mouth index. “Shaanxi thirteen” (14) and “paiyuefang” (19) ranked second and third with 898.4 and 888.8 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Mr. Xu fried yogurt in Bianliang”, with a net growth of 420, and the number of stores reached 523; The second place is “Manmi yogurt”, with a net increase of 258, and the number of stores reached 266; Mr. roasted pear ranked third, with a net increase of 244 stores and 260 stores.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular desserts are fresh taro fairy signs, taro see strawberry smoothie, mango Euphorbia, poplar branch manna.
Currently, there are 50118 stores (about 50000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 17529 stores (about 18000) were newly opened and 14742 stores (about 15000) were closed, with a net increase of 2787.
At present, there are 53261 stores (about 53000) in operation in China. From 2021 to may 2022, 22654 stores (about 23000) were newly opened and 16266 stores (about 16000) were closed, with a net increase of 6388.
In fact, in 2020, these two brands are in a state of rapid negative growth. The self-employed stores of “Shaxian snack” and “Lanzhou Ramen” are very much like the trisomy people in “trisomy”. They are dehydrated in the chaotic era, and they will absorb water and survive in the eternal era. They are very flexible.
At present, the number of snack chain stores in operation in China is 85867 (about 86000), 36325 (about 36000) new stores were opened from 2021 to may 2022, 15096 (about 15000) closed stores, and a net increase of 21229 (about 21000).
The snack chain track continues to maintain high growth, and the track is undergoing a huge upgrading process. On the one hand, the price is degraded, the pursuit of lower gross profit, more choices, and entering the community to meet the demand for lower prices; On the other hand, the quality is upgraded, and more freshly prepared snacks meet the demand for higher quality. Among them, new brands such as “snacks are busy”, “snacks are noisy” and “Xueji fried goods” have received large amounts of financing in 2021.
Scale ranking: “Laifen” ranks first in the snack chain category with 3616 existing stores; The number of “liangpin store” in the second place is 3145; “Three squirrels” ranked third with 955 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “grain emperor” (733) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 827.2 points. “Mangu Baoli” (34) and “cataleya high-end snacks” (56) ranked second and third with 818.4 and 816 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Laifen”, with a net growth of 540; The second place is “Xueji fried goods”, with a net increase of 384; The “liangpin store” ranked third, with a net increase of 364 stores.
The number one snack chain stores closed was 1018.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular snack chain products are sugar fried chestnuts, frost sugar hawthorn and ice magic chestnut. Chestnuts account for almost half of the snacks.
Fresh food chain tracks also pose great challenges to cross regional operations, such as inconsistent source planting standards and sorting standards, waste caused by non-standardization of products, waste caused by short storage time, differences in regional food habits, diversity of food material requirements, lack of domestic refined management… A little waste will lead to losses. At present, domestic fresh food chains rarely make profits, and it is difficult to see who will win the competition in the end.
Fresh food chain stores in China currently have 155921 stores (about 156000), 17956 new stores (about 18000) and 7745 closed stores from 2021 to may 2022, with a net increase of 10211 (about 10000).
Scale ranking: “Guoquan Shihui” ranks first in the fresh food chain category with 7694 existing stores; The number of existing stores of “Qian Dama”, which ranks second, is 2711; “Zouliguo hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot fried roast supermarket” ranks third with 802 stores.
Ranking by Hukou reputation: “7fresh seven fresh supermarkets” (16) ranked first with a word-of-mouth index of 893.4 points. “HEMA Xiansheng” (244) and “guadu Xiansheng” (11) ranked second and third with 880.8 and 871.2 points respectively.
Ranking of net growth: the first place is “Guoquan Shihui”, with a net growth of 4599; The second place is “aunt Qian”, with a net increase of 846; “Meituan shopping” ranked third, with a net increase of 153 stores.
262 fresh food chain stores closed first. “Lazy bear hot-pot/" 22375 rel="nofollow" target="_self">hot pot”, “Jiupin pot” and “daily excellent food” began to enter the list of negative growth.
Data statistics / mapping: narrow door dining hole
The most popular dishes in the fresh food chain are Boston lobster, king crab, skin shrimp, salmon, crayfish, etc.
Five important variables affecting future catering
1. Changes in capital’s attitude towards catering
① Stock price and investment and financing heat
The biggest impact is summarized as eight words: all the way down, the listing broke.
In 2021, the market value of “Haidilao” fell from 500billion to 80billion Hong Kong dollars, “Xiabu Xiabu” fell from 20billion to 4billion Hong Kong dollars, “Naixue’s tea” and “Helens” both fell all the way after their listing. On the one hand, there were 400 catering investment and financing events in 2021, with a financing amount of 50billion. Nearly 100 investment and financing events were not disclosed, and the amount of venture capital financing reached a record high.
By the first quarter of 2022, catering investment and financing events have decreased significantly, and catering investment enthusiasm has declined sharply, but entrepreneurs’ expectations are still relatively high, and the valuation has not been reasonably adjusted.
② The emergence of the Beijing stock exchange has added new options
The emergence of the Beijing stock exchange at the end of 2021 has also brought new opportunities to catering enterprises. Before the emergence of the Beijing stock exchange, only the main board of Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchange, the main board of Hong Kong stock exchange or the growth enterprise market could be listed. The Shanghai Stock Exchange and the science and technology innovation board do not accept the listing of traditional catering enterprises. The emergence of the Beijing stock exchange has added new options.
Beijing stock exchange mainly serves innovative small and medium-sized enterprises, focusing on supporting enterprises in advanced manufacturing and modern service industries. In order to meet the requirements of “innovation”, catering enterprises can have innovative stories in these aspects, such as food material traceability, food safety management system, food technology, food standardization system, central kitchen, supply chain, intelligent restaurant, etc.
After meeting the innovation requirements, to be listed on the Beijing stock exchange, it also needs to meet one of these four standards, namely:
Standard 1: the enterprise has reached a market value of 200million, with an annual net profit of ≥ 15million in recent two years, with an average roe of ≥ 8%, or a net profit of ≥ 25million in recent one year, with an average roe of ≥ 8%.
standard 2: the enterprise has reached a market value of 400million, with an average operating income of ≥ 100million in recent two years, and an operating income growth rate of ≥ 30% in recent one year. Net cash flow from operating activities >0
standard 3: the enterprise has reached a market value of 800million, with a total R & D investment / (total operating income) ≥ 8% in recent two years, And the operating income in recent one year ≥ 200million
standard 4: the enterprise has reached a market value of 1.5 billion, and the total R & D investment in recent two years ≥ 50million.
Among the above four standards, catering enterprises are easier to achieve standards 1 and 2. You can work in this direction.
Although the catering capital is cold in 2022, the next 10 years will still be the best 10 years for the capitalization of catering in China.
For investors, in a track with certainty of future capital value, when the market valuation returns to rationality and the capital demand of entrepreneurs increases, it is a good time to invest. There is no need to go to the high valuation and kneel down for a shot when the track is hot again.
Thick snow bodes well for a good year. Prepare in winter, sow in spring, and enjoy the cool when it is hot and dry, so that time can grow fruits. Cycle again and again, make good use of the power of the cycle, but not trapped in the cycle.
2. Impact of carbon neutralization on catering
If an event occurs only in a few countries and is only mentioned occasionally, it may be a small probability event; If it is repeatedly emphasized and has occurred in most countries, it must be a trend.
Carbon neutralization is also an unavoidable topic in the catering industry.
In response to climate change, 197 countries adopted the Paris Agreement in Paris on December 12, 2015, aiming to significantly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions. If China wants to better integrate into the world trading system and avoid being levied a high carbon tax, it must join the ranks of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.
At the 75th United Nations General Assembly in September 2020, China announced that it would strive to reach the carbon peak by 2030, and the carbon dioxide emission per unit of GDP in 2030 would be reduced by 60%~65% compared with that in 2005, achieving the ambitious goal of carbon neutrality by 2060.
In order to achieve this goal, how should catering enterprises and upstream and downstream enterprises adjust?
① Animal husbandry is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions
According to the report data of the food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, it is found that animal husbandry is an important source of greenhouse gas emissions. Animal husbandry accounts for 14.5% of carbon emissions caused by human beings. Beef and milk production are the main sources of carbon emissions from animal husbandry. Carbon emissions from animal husbandry mainly come from animal intestinal fermentation and feed production. In addition, there is energy consumption of animal manure treatment and process production.
Recently, there was also a very interesting news that New Zealand became the first country to charge for burping cattle and sheep. New Zealand issued a proposal on June 8, requiring farmers to pay for greenhouse gas emissions from cattle and sheep, but they can offset emissions by planting trees or using feed additives to reduce emissions.
New Zealand has only 5million people, but there are 10million cattle and 26million sheep. Nearly half of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions come from agriculture. As a ruminant, cattle excrete hundreds of liters of methane through burping and farting every day, which is about 70 times that of pigs.
Then, from the perspective of carbon neutrality, we need to find ways to solve some of the disadvantages of animal husbandry at present. In addition to the greenhouse gas emissions just mentioned, we believe that in the long run, the supply of traditional animal husbandry will also face challenges:
First, the traditional meat industry has long links and large energy consumption. 46% of the world’s grain production meets the needs of animal husbandry, while only 37% of the food given to people is more than what people eat.
Second, the per capita cultivated land area has decreased. Although the total cultivated land area in China is large, the per capita cultivated land area is relatively small, only 1/4 of the world’s per capita cultivated land area, less than 1.35 mu.
Third, China relies heavily on imports of grain.
China uses 7% of the world’s arable land to feed 22% of the world’s population. On the one hand, it benefits from the state’s emphasis on agriculture and subsidies, and ensures the red line of arable land;
On the other hand, many food ingredients in China are dependent on imports, such as 81% of soybeans and 78.4% of barley. Even for products with relatively low import dependence, breeding and planting technologies are still mastered abroad. Compared with the west, although China is a large agricultural country, it is not an agricultural power.
② Future food: alternative protein
The Chinese government has begun to pay attention to relevant issues. An obvious signal is that in 2022, the two sessions and the 14th five year economic plan both mentioned alternative protein as the solution to future food:
In early March 2022, the national two sessions mentioned that “we should expand from traditional crops and livestock and poultry resources to richer biological resources, develop biotechnology and biological industry, and ask for heat and protein from plants, animals and microorganisms”.
on May 10, 2022, the “14th five year plan for bioeconomy development” clearly mentioned “developing synthetic biological technology, exploring the research and development of new foods such as” artificial protein “, realizing the iterative upgrading of food industrialization and reducing the pressure on environmental resources caused by traditional aquaculture”.
In response to the national carbon neutralization goal, tomato capital is also paying attention to the supplementary / alternative schemes of traditional animal husbandry. We deeply study plant protein, animal cell cultivation protein (cell meat), microbial fermentation protein and other related technologies.
Insect protein is hard to accept as a food, but it can be used as a source of animal feed. As mentioned above, the food supplied to animals accounts for 47%, so helping animals find more alternatives to feed is to release more food space for human beings.
③ Agricultural industrialization
In addition to the logic of substitution, another idea is to improve the efficiency and production capacity of agriculture and transition from agriculture to industry.
Through biotechnological transformation of seeds, fertilizers and pesticides before production, and even soil improvement, more intelligent equipment is invested in the production process, and dynamic monitoring is carried out through big data, cloud computing and other means in production management, so as to realize agricultural industrialization.
④ Low carbon scheme of terminal catering
Just now we talked about the upstream of the catering industry, namely agriculture, so catering enterprises will also reduce carbon emissions through technology, such as:
Low carbon raw material procurement: change the procurement method of vegetable raw materials from traditional temporary and comparative procurement to professional and intensive procurement methods such as entrusted and network procurement.
facilities are equipped with the introduction of low-carbon technology: the introduction of induction cooker, electric stewing pot and other low-carbon catering equipment; Realize green environmental protection in the indoor facilities of restaurants such as building decoration, air conditioning and lighting; Optimize the takeout packaging and try to avoid the use of disposable tableware.
low carbon kitchen waste treatment: in 2020, China’s kitchen waste reached 127.75 million tons (about 13000 tons). If all kitchen waste is landfilled, the annual carbon emission will reach 44.66 million tons, even exceeding the total carbon emission of sewage treatment in China by 39.85 million tons. How to use new technology to solve the low-carbon treatment of kitchen waste? These will become new topics.
How to reduce carbon emissions in all links needs to be considered by the whole chain.
At the central economic work conference last year, it was proposed that “achieving carbon peak and carbon neutralization cannot be accomplished in one battle”. On the road of carbon neutralization, we cannot apply one size fits all, and we need to work steadily and gradually in an orderly manner.
Although these solutions are difficult to achieve significant results in a short time, they must be an unavoidable topic for catering enterprises to maintain sustainable development, and will continue to affect the source and cost of food ingredients in catering in the future. So the sooner you think about these issues, the more competitive you will be in the future.
3. The impact of changes in shopping center commerce and community commerce on catering
① Community businesses recover faster than shopping malls
There are more than 100000 urban communities across the country, and there are more than 5000 medium and large shopping centers with more than 50 shops. In many low-level cities, the vacancy rate of shopping centers is very high. Coupled with the impact of the epidemic, the vacancy rate remains high.
According to the monitoring of Yingshang big data, the average vacancy rate of shopping centers in 20 first and second tier cities in China fell by 2 percentage points to 9.0% in 2021; However, compared with the low level of 6.1% before the epidemic, there is still a gap.
Among them, the vacancy rate of district level business districts was lower than that of municipal level business districts in 2021, which was more obvious in second tier cities.
The well-known municipal business districts in various cities have different destinies, including those who are frustrated and those who are satisfied. Beijing CBD business district, Guangzhou Tianhe Road Business District, Shenzhen Bao’an central business district and Chongqing Guanyinqiao business district have effective project management, low vacancy rate and active rental demand.
In 2019, the vacancy rate of municipal and district business districts was 6% and 5.5% respectively, and in 2020, the vacancy rate increased to 11.3% and 11.4% respectively, but in 2021, the vacancy rate of municipal business districts slightly returned to 11.1%.
In 2019, the number of shopping centers newly opened in China was 533; In 2020, the number of newly opened shopping centers in China was 338; In 2021, the number of newly opened shopping centers in China was 379, a decrease of more than 25% compared with 2019.
The average daily passenger flow of shopping centers across the country also decreased from 24600 in 2019 to 18500 in 2021. The decline of passenger flow also led to the closing rate of shopping centers reaching 14% in 2021.
② The passenger flow of convenience business district recovers faster than that in 2019
In the post epidemic era, with the acceleration of the pace of life and the increase of fragment time, the importance of “just need convenience” is highlighted.
Huike cloud counted all business districts in 36 key cities and calculated the year-on-year growth rate of their passenger flow in 2019. Among the top 100 business districts in terms of growth rate, it was found that the passenger flow of community and office business districts increased the fastest. The basic consumer groups of these two types of business districts are surrounding residents or office workers. The rigid demand consumption brought by rigid demand passenger flow is less affected by the epidemic and recovers faster.
③ Catering will be transferred to community-based, office based business districts and sinking markets
In the past, due to the scattered shops and lack of reasonable planning, community stores were easy to give people the impression of “low-grade” and “dirty and messy”. Catering people who want to be brands are keen to enter shopping malls, reflect brand value, obtain high-quality traffic, and facilitate rapid expansion.
Now, after a 10-year bonus period for shopping centers, shopping malls have entered differentiation, and community businesses have returned to the vision of catering people. The cost of entering shopping malls is extremely high. Even after the epidemic hit hard, many shopping malls continue to raise rents. Shopping malls with high popularity regard small chain businesses without bargaining chips as the target of ultra-high rent harvest.
Under the baptism of the epidemic, the comprehensive “rigid demand” catering industry and community catering are being paid attention to. Many brands have targeted these markets and expanded the number of stores in 2021.
For example, the number of stores of “Uncle Xiong” has expanded rapidly to 228, “Jixiang wonton” has reached 2228, “ziguangyuan” community store has reached 144, “nanchengxiang” has reached 123, “Barbi steamed bread” has reached 3917, “Yuanji dumplings” has reached 1783, which are representatives of community commerce.
The advantage of community commerce is not only its large scale, but also its longer lease term. Especially for small brands, the lease term given by shopping centers to small brands is only oneortwo years, and the rent is very unfriendly. For rigid demand catering, the lower rental cost and stable rent of community catering are also the related reasons for the better community business.
We mentioned the hot flour track in 2021. At that time, with the help of capital, the powdered noodles track launched a “brand upgrade” action, swarmed into fashionable shopping malls, and couldn’t wait to get rid of the impression of “husband and wife store”.
At the beginning of this action, it was a win-win situation between flour brands and shopping centers, but no one expected the impact of the repeated epidemic on shopping centers.
This has also led to the rapid emergence of the disadvantages of “entering the mall”. When the mall traffic is no longer, the high store rent and labor costs will make these categories with limited gross profit under the epidemic become a heavy burden.
Of course, for leisure catering and dinner chain brands with high brand added value and customers willing to pay extra for the brand, high-quality shopping centers are still a must.
There are many roads in the world. If more people walk and the price is high, it is not a road. Only by entering the narrow gate can we take the main road.
4. The impact of different intergenerational group changes on catering
Chinese catering enterprises still have incremental opportunities. On the one hand, consumers, enterprises and society have different new needs because of the stage of economic development. On the other hand, scientific and technological breakthroughs can achieve more innovative products and services.
As long as there is change, there will be new opportunities in the business world.
Let’s take a look at the opportunities for catering brought by the changes of different generations.
① Z era consumers become the mainstream of consumption
Bezos said, “we can be old, but our users can’t be old.” When doing category innovation, we often find opportunities for transformation and upgrading, because there are generations of brands.
Finding an entry point from young people is an eternal plan and opportunity, especially the newly emerging new Guochao catering consumption brands, such as “Taier pickled cabbage fish”, “Mo Mo dim sum bureau”, “Helens”, “Xi tea”, “commune”, etc.
The core customers of the catering industry are concentrated in young people, and the consumption concept of each generation of young people will change greatly with the development of society.
For example, with the rapid growth of China’s economy and the rise of Chinese culture, the “Guochao” culture is unprecedented among young people. In the past two years, especially “China Li Ning” and “huaxizi”, these non catering brands have grown at an amazing speed.
What is the Z era? Generally, it refers to people born between 1995 and 2010. The z-era group is nearly 233million, with a total consumption of 5trillion yuan, accounting for about 14% of the total household expenditure. They are the aborigines and main force of the Internet, accounting for 28% of mobile Internet users. They are also the mainstream group of opinion expression. Semi online public opinion was published after 95.
So if you catch this user group, you will catch the traffic!
The growth background of Z era also affects their behavior. According to a study by Professor Li Yang of Changjiang Business School:
At the national level: Z era was born in an era of strong national power, sufficient commodities and superior material resources, catching up with the 70 year military parade and the covid-19 pandemic. It can be said that they grew up under the vigorous publicity of national rejuvenation and cultural rejuvenation.
social level: Z era has caught up with the Internet era of everyone networking, massive information, fast product iteration and efficient social interaction. It feels the reduction of class mobility and begins to emphasize equality. And with the promotion of we media, their personal values have also been amplified, such as punk health, Martian writers, quadratic elements, etc.
family level: Z era is mostly an only child, enjoying exclusive parental care, generally lacking peer companionship, and highly educated, more willing to think independently.
Under these characteristics, their consumption phenomenon is also different, and ultimately forced catering enterprises to make changes:
At the marketing level: pay attention to planting grass, and the evaluation on social platforms has become a new standard for them to choose restaurants; Pay attention to the beauty of restaurants and dishes. Love to punch in as a souvenir has become a habit of Z era: according to relevant research, Z Era Group believes that the main reasons why they are willing to go to online celebrity stores are novel decoration style, many people punch in and print pictures, and unique product design; Paying attention to national trends is the key point of marketing.
at the product level: the pursuit of convenience in Z era is significantly higher than that in other generations, giving birth to the lazy economy, and the continued growth of catering retailing and takeout; Z era pays more attention to health, punk health.
Every generation has its own characteristics. Ni Kuang once joked that “the reason why human beings progress is that the next generation does not listen to the words of the previous generation”. Only when we understand the younger generation, learn from them, have curiosity about them, and keep product innovation and service innovation young can we continue to maintain the progress of the enterprise.
② China enters a deep aging society
According to the internationally accepted classification standard, when a country or region’s population aged 65 and above accounts for more than 7%, it means entering aging; Reaching 14%, it is a deep aging; More than 20% enter a super aging society. According to this standard, China has entered a deep aging society in 2021.
It is estimated that by 2035 and 2050, China’s elderly population aged 65 and over will reach 327million and 393million respectively, and will continue to grow to the peak of 425million in 2057, entering super aging.
In terms of provinces, the three northeastern provinces account for a relatively high proportion, with Liaoning being the highest, accounting for 25.7%, and Shanghai, the second largest in the country, accounting for 23.4%. It seems that Shanghai is a very suitable place for elderly care. Of course, it is more popular to represent health preserving and healthy meals in business.
Through observation, I found that silver haired people have these consumption habits: Silver haired people in first tier cities need to comprehensively consider all dimensions in their daily consumption, while fourth tier and lower tier consumers almost only pay attention to the word-of-mouth and price of goods, and pay more attention to cost performance.
From this point of view, when customers only pay attention to word-of-mouth and price, fourth tier and below cities are more suitable for the chain development of catering, because chain products will reflect greater “unity”; However, when customers don’t pay much attention to price, the diversification of consumption and diversified demand will be stronger, which is characterized by reverse chain.
In other words, brands with “high added value” and “personalized” characteristics are more suitable for development in first and second tier cities. Because of the large number of users in the first and second tier cities, the brand can not only meet the needs of more personalized people to consume, but also stimulate the production of consumption diversity needs, but the core is to have high added value.
Therefore, starting from the eating habits of silver haired people, there will be a demand for some healthier, health preserving and high value-added health food brands, and the market will gradually expand.
③ The impact of single (unmarried, divorced), living alone, middle-class, low-income and other groups on catering
For the catering industry, the development trend of population structure needs special attention first.
[single] according to national statistics, by 2019, the total number of single people in China is about 300million, which is in the fourth “single tide”. According to the white paper on the phenomenon of unmarried people in contemporary China, unmarried people account for about 25% of the total number of single people, that is, about 75million people.
first, let’s look at the unmarried single people. They are highly educated and have higher requirements for their partners. The concept of love and marriage is no longer taken for granted. The impact of a series of social concepts, partner matching, and quality of life, such as economic pressure and family integration, makes people’s living attributes no longer pursue the family based group life, and there are more and more unmarried people. The consumption characteristics of this group are also gradually becoming personalized. More and more people eat out, boosting the reform and development of the catering industry.
let’s look at the divorcees again. The 2021 consumption report of Castle Peak capital shows that in 2020, the number of divorces in China was 8.68 million and the number of marriages was 16.29 million. In the 35 years from 1985 to 2020, the ratio of divorce to marriage has changed from 1/18 to 1/2, which means that every two married families have a divorce.
[living alone] there are nearly 100million people living alone in China, and 65% of the post-90s takeout orders are for one person. The broadcast volume of Tiktok topic also shows that 4.2 billion times for one person.
[middle class] the middle class in the United States has more than 200 million people, accounting for about 50% of the total population. China now has a middle class accounting for 30%, with 400million people (60000-500000 annual income is considered as the middle class), which is equivalent to the total population of the United States, which is a very large number. Affected by the epidemic and the economic downturn, the consumption confidence of the middle class will be greatly affected, or there will be a huge demand for consumption degradation.
[low income] according to the “China Statistical Yearbook 2021” published on the official website of the China Bureau of statistics, the per capita disposable income of the lowest 20% of the population in 2020 was only 7868.8 yuan, which was only 655.7 yuan per month, and this part of the population was about 282million. In addition, 20% of the lower middle income group, whose monthly income is only 1370.23 yuan, also has 282million people.
As can be seen from the above data, catering enterprises need to meet the changes of the market according to the changes of population structure. Because the number of restaurants continues to increase, the overall competition is more intense.
How can entrepreneurs find people with less competition and stronger demand, and make strategic choices in combination with their own advantageous resources and capabilities, so as to improve the success rate of entrepreneurship?
First, increase the flexibility of the model. In the past, many restaurants were large shops with 1000 square meters or even 3000 square meters. Now, many restaurants continue to shrink, and 300-500 square meters have become the mainstream; The original 300-500 square meters has now become 100-200 square meters. Many category brands have adjusted the model of “take away as the main + food as the supplement + take away supplement”.
Second, correspondingly, the restaurant used to be dominated by round tables, which can seat 8-12 people, suitable for family consumption. Now the concept of “family” has been diluted, and the space efficiency is higher by replacing it with 1-person table, 2-person table and 4-person small square table. For example, Taier sauerkraut fish put forward the slogan of “no reception for more than four people”, which is exactly the way to cater to the trend change of population structure.
Third, “eating alone” is also affecting the fast food industry. Leisure catering brands have launched “one person food” or set meals for two people, such as “pizza that can be eaten by one person” launched by Le Caesar last year.
In order to cope with the miniaturization of the number of diners, reducing the portion size is also a good solution. For example, the new White Deer in Hangzhou cuisine and the small garden of Anhui cuisine have also played the purpose of reducing the price of dishes by reducing the amount of a single dish and increasing the diversification of ordering, making it a more popular catering brand among mainstream public customers in the city where it is located. Haidilao and Banu have also introduced half dishes, which are deeply recognized by customers.
Fourth, catering is the foundation of people’s livelihood, and pricing also needs to take into account public income. Especially in the era of economic depression, people’s consumption confidence has greatly decreased. In terms of pricing, if most low-income groups can be satisfied, there is little need to worry about the negative impact of economic uncertainty, and the scale in the future is unimaginable.
In the United States, brands such as McDonald’s, KFC, pizza hut, Starbucks, hamburger and Domino’s are all based on their low-cost and low price strategy to make them cross the economic cycle and go global. They also basically adhere to this strategy in China. At first, they will feel more expensive, but after entering China for decades, even if prices soar, their prices have never changed.
In the recent 35th anniversary celebration of KFC in China (June 20-22), in order to emphasize its low price positioning, KFC once again offered its love card, let the finger sucking chicken with the original price of 12 yuan return to the classic price of 2.5 yuan, and shouted “the price returns to 1987!”.
Rigid demand will become the core weapon through the cycle.
But at the same time, it also tests the upstream supply chain ability and the ability to refine the whole operation of catering enterprises, that is, on the premise of ensuring food safety and product quality, you should have the ability to reduce costs to the extreme.
There has never been a so-called low price strategy. The essence behind low price is low cost. Low cost is not only a strategy, but also a capability.
Here we remind you that based on the diversity of emerging consumer groups, you should find trendy target groups. For these groups, there is always an opportunity to suit your advantages.
For example, we should grasp the emerging z-era groups, low-income groups and elderly consumer groups to make brand planning. At the same time, in the face of such a large group of singles, living alone and Dink, we should also be cautious about the positioning of family meals and children’s meals. Because this group is shrinking, but also depends on the number of competitors.
5. The impact of digitalization on catering
Today, every catering enterprise should have its own “offensive and defensive way”. Offensive means to tap the most valuable new customers and potential new customers, and defensive means to keep old customers and loyal customers.
In order to accurately realize the effective innovation, retention, transformation and frequency improvement of customers, digital ability has become a necessary breakthrough for catering chain brands.
If you want economies of scale, the future of enterprises must be based on the digital new continent.
① The impact of digital marketing on catering
During the epidemic, many diners were anxious about the flow because of the disappearance of offline traffic, and were helpless about the “high fixed cost, low-income” business situation of offline stores. They hoped to make a breakthrough in sales and make effective marketing measures with low-cost investment.
Entering online and laying out digital marketing is almost the only choice.
Here I would like to share three points:
First, do a good job in private domain and improve the retention rate and repurchase rate;
According to the financial report of Yum group, as of the second quarter of 2021, the membership plans of “KFC” and “Pizza Hut” had a total of more than 330million members. In the second quarter of 2021, member sales accounted for about 61% of system sales.
“McDonald’s” has nearly 200million members in China by August 2021; Small program trading orders account for 70%; There are 30000 communities in China.
In addition to “Ruixing coffee”, almost all the brands with the strongest digitalization are not Chinese brands. The online private domain of Yum! Brands, McDonald’s brands and Starbucks brands account for 30-60% of the sales. Chinese catering enterprises have relatively weak awareness and ability of private domain traffic.
For example, McDonald’s has built a set of brand centered private domains, and private domain operations focus on sales. Its playing method is official account + applet + video Number + community + private domain.
first click to enter the community through the applet or code scanning order, as well as the “coupon” and “welfare group” in the applet payment scenario; Communities are built according to user consumption regions, so as to layer users and provide more convenient store services; The group regularly pushes preferential benefits to guide users to small programs to realize re purchase. McDonald’s coupons are mainly divided into three functional areas: receiving coupons, using coupons, and reminding coupons. Different coupons are pushed according to the usage habits of different people
Except that some brands began to lay out their private domain from 2017 to 2018, most brands began to focus on the private domain from 2020.
As a high-frequency and multi offline consumption, catering services are more susceptible to content planting and novel consumption. Online experience requires a clear diversion to offline, so that users can make more decisions online and pay for services offline.
Offline customers also need to be guided to the online private domain to maintain communication and interaction with customers, and then order takeaway, queue in advance, pick up at the store, etc. through the online private domain. At the same time, the user’s repurchase frequency can be improved through membership level, innovative marketing methods, etc.
For the categories of dinner, the chain is relatively low, and the re purchase will also be low, but the customer unit price will be higher.
Therefore, the focus of the private domain can be to push packages, provide recharge services and value-added services for member customers, do a good job in “content” through contacts such as official account and community, do a good job in user mental cultivation and value transmission, such as food recommendation, new product preview, cooking tips at home and other content, and use the private domain to promote the good maintenance of public comments.
After the advent of the digital transformation era, marketing and sales are moving towards integration, both of which are transmitting information. The number of people passing information is also affecting the absolute value of transformation and sales.
The soul of private domain traffic and community operation is to manage the heart to heart distance between you and customers. Do a good job in customer service, maintain customers with human relations, and distribute relevant products around their needs and potential needs.
Although enterprise wechat can link customers on a large scale and make personalized labels for customers, it still lacks a little temperature, and it still needs personalized personal wechat with store as the center for supplementary communication.
Second, put into live broadcast to improve brand exposure and reach;
With the advent of the 5g era, in addition to dynamic graphics and text pages as an entry point for cognitive marketing, the content ecosystem dominated by live broadcasts and short videos has ushered in explosive growth.
In the era of video internet, the flow dividend is unprecedented in the catering industry.
In the field of local life, in addition to the well-known meituan and hungry, Tiktok has also begun to work on local life business. Businesses can channel users to offline consumption through live broadcasts and short videos. Many big brands such as “McDonald’s”, “KFC” and “Xi Cha” have entered the market.
For example, “Naixue’s tea” sold 190million in 72 hours through the live broadcast of the limited stored value card in the birthday season, which is equivalent to the sales of 700 Naixue stores in nearly a week.
“chabaidao” is preheated synchronously online and offline. The number of online viewers of the three live broadcasts is up to 77000, with a total of nearly 10million viewers and sales exceeding 52million.
“Uncle Xiong dumplings” consolidates the brand image and enhances users’ trust in the brand through the live broadcast of the scene of making dumplings. By means of online live broadcast and offline verification, it not only obtains clues from franchisees, but also helps franchisees further obtain customers.
Catering businesses can leverage more traffic distribution through live broadcasting, while reducing the cost of getting customers, so as to enter the “growth cycle” of business. However, we should be careful to use ultra-low price promotion for live broadcast sales, which will not only make no profit, but also consume brand value.
Third, scientifically allocate the proportion of hall food, takeout and takeout.
Affected by the epidemic, the proportion of catering takeout is also expanding. By the end of 2021, the number of takeout users had reached 540million, and the takeout revenue accounted for 21.4% of the total catering revenue.
Takeaway alleviates the problem of inconvenient travel and dining for users, helps catering enterprises solve the problem of significantly reducing the profit of offline business, and improves the revenue of the whole industry to a certain extent. In this regard, the takeaway platform is indispensable.
We suggest that catering enterprises should plan the proportion of takeout, Hall Food and takeout. The pure platform take away catering chain without private domain capability as a support cannot contribute to the platform’s traffic, nor can it escape the continuous rise of the marketing cost of purchasing traffic, which is difficult to maintain high growth and build a brand because of its lack of traffic sovereignty.
In addition, in addition to high value-added meals, products that are just needed should also avoid 100% hall food. Because of the high cost pressure on the food hall, the high revenue requires supporting large areas, high rents, decoration depreciation, store service costs, etc., especially in the case of epidemic, the income of food hall is zero.
Catering enterprises should continue to increase the proportion of consumers to take out, which can reduce the service area and service manpower, so as to reduce the investment cost, rental cost and service cost, and do not need to generate the cost of platform discount, distribution and purchase flow.
The future catering model should try to reduce the area of hall food, adjust the proportion of kitchen and lobby area, and evolve from the original “small kitchen, lobby food” to “large kitchen, small hall food, heavy takeout, appropriate takeout”.
Takeout must be available, but the proportion of takeout should always be restrained, and customers should be encouraged to consume or withdraw from the store, so as to establish a better income structure and cost structure, and maintain flexibility and risk resistance. Of course, if you have strong private domain ability, you can also increase the proportion of takeout.
② The influence of digital management on catering
I mentioned the “negative effect of scale” earlier. The larger the scale, the lower the benefit, and digital ability is an important ability to avoid the “negative effect of scale”.
Catering chain should break through the bottleneck of scale, and digitalization should be taken as the core strategy to carry out digitalization upgrading and realize the comprehensive digitalization of operation, management and production, which is an inevitable choice for future strategic growth.
According to the public information of “Ruixing coffee”, Ruixing has established a complete set of intelligent management systems, including front-end interaction system, operation system, data analysis system and other intelligent management systems. With this series of intelligent management systems, Ruixing not only realizes the intelligent location of stores, but also greatly improves the management efficiency of the middle and back offices, enabling it to achieve large-scale and stable expansion in a very short time.
with the advantages of digital system, Ruixing launched 34 new products in the first quarter of 2022, realizing the process and systematic creation of new products. It also digitises all kinds of raw materials and flavors, quantifies and tracks the pop trends of drinks.
through these data, we can get countless product combinations first, then converge, and finally select a batch of new products. Ruixing’s R & D system is based on Ruixing’s full set of digital data. It is the massive data that supports this set of innovation mechanism, which in turn feeds back more comprehensive and detailed data.
Digitalization is a hard trend, and the whole industry is accelerating towards the digital era. Every catering enterprise should improve its adaptability in the digital era.
Before the summer of 2020, the management of “Naixue’s tea” mainly depends on various modules provided by third-party system providers. Because different modules are provided by different suppliers, there are many problems. In June, 2020, Naixue invited He Gang, the former vice president of jd.com and CTO of Ruixing coffee, to join in, giving equity incentives, with full sincerity.
after he Gang joined, he recruited nearly 200 people from major Internet manufacturers and successively made a combination of small program orders, third-party takeout platforms, online wechat stores, live broadcasts, tmall flagship stores and so on for Naixue’s tea. Recently, intelligent tea drinking equipment has been launched in more than 100 stores to improve production efficiency, reduce manpower and improve standardization.
at present, in addition to the financial system, other processes have been opened up. It is the early layout and precise efforts of digital operations that enable “Naixue’s tea” to achieve a smooth transition even under the influence of the epidemic. Digital investment has also become one of the biggest highlights of its listing roadshow.
We can see that the trend in the future will be to let people manage people and things, and upgrade to digital management of people and things.
No matter your business model or your organizational model, it should become a digital model, rather than letting digitalization stay on the idea.
Finally, I want to say: stick to goodness!
For all people, this is an era of dimension increase and dimension reduction.
Upgrading dimension means that from now on, we should not indulge in the logic of the past era and face the future for comprehensive upgrading;
dimensionality reduction is to forget the good days in the past, bend down, and be willing to bear all the pain and discomfort in order to survive, and do a good job in front of you step by step.
In 2022, we have no chance to escape or retreat.
What you spend years building may be destroyed. Anyway, build it. The good deeds you have done may be forgotten tomorrow. Anyway, do good deeds anyway.
The biggest difference between ordinary and extraordinary enterprises lies not only in how much you have contributed to the society in brilliant times, but also in how hard you have adhered to the bottom line. No matter what adversity you encounter, you have kept your goodness!
In such a difficult time, it is difficult for all catering people. You can still treat your employees and partners well, still adhere to the quality of products and services, treat your customers well, and still adhere to your ideals. This is the real “goodness”.
Do the right thing, time is the answer.
Original title: no matter how difficult it is, still strive for goodness ｜ 10000 words interpretation of 2022 Chinese catering
Author: Qing Yong; Source: notesman (id:notesman), reprint authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
food people are “watching”