China Food

Naixue’s tea hasn’t reached the turning point yet

“ 
The price of
is falling. But the cost cannot be reduced.
 ”
Naixue’s tea story is still difficult to tell with the support of the labels of “the first share of new tea”, “the head of the industry” and “China Starbucks”.
On August 5, Naixue tea issued a profit warning: in the six months ending June 30, 2022, it will record a revenue of about 2.02 billion-2.07 billion yuan, and an adjusted net loss of about 230 million-270 million yuan.
Earlier, its 2021 financial report showed that the adjusted net profit of Naixue tea in 2021 was RMB 145 million. Loss has been a common topic, but what puzzles the outside world is that loss has not stopped Naixue’s expansion.
In 2021, Naixue’s tea has a net increase of 326 Naixue stores. At the same time, it clearly stated in its financial report that increasing the density of stores can help cultivate consumption habits. It is expected that 350 new tea stores will be opened in 2022.
Going against the trend, the market can not help questioning Naixue’s tea. Many people in the industry said that Naixue’s tea loss came from his “big shop” behavior.
In fact, as the capital boom fades, the overall temperature of the new tea circuit drops, but the competition becomes more and more intense. High end tea brands are seeking customers with low prices, and opening large stores means an increase in costs. Naixue’s tea is hard to hide its decline because of its high cost and high price.
During this period, Naixue’s tea also realized that she needed to tell a new story. Make investment, expand the track, and make “Naixue coin”. Naixue’s tea moves frequently. However, too much force has led to the question of excessive marketing and sidestepping.
With the half of the new tea fighting, the competition among players in the high-end finals is becoming more and more fierce, and new brands are constantly emerging. For Naixue’s tea, it is difficult to become the “sword of Damocles” hanging over its head. After many years of operation, it has not reached the turning point.
One year after listing, it is still difficult
On June 30, 2021, Naixue’s tea was officially listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange, becoming the first share of new tea.
However, when the market opened, it seemed that the capital market was not optimistic about Naixue’s tea.
In the year after listing, Naixue’s tea was difficult to make a profit, which became a more thorny problem. Recently, Naixue’s tea issued a profit warning for the first half of this year. Not surprisingly, Naixue’s tea lost money again.
As for the reasons for the loss, Naixue’s tea pointed out in the announcement that in addition to the impact of the epidemic, the expansion of stores in the first half of this year brought about an increase in the relative fixed costs such as store manpower and rent, which also further led to the loss. Meanwhile, due to the influence of foreign exchange rate, the net unrealized loss of Naixue tea in the first half of the year was about 24.4 million yuan.
In addition, Naixue tea said that although the number of stores of the group in the first half of 2022 increased compared with the same period of 2021, the group’s revenue decreased compared with the same period of 2021. This means that under the epidemic situation, the mode of dense store opening is not Naixue’s tea
One year after listing, even Naixue’s tea, as the industry leader, is still a “big problem” in terms of profitability.
Prices that cannot rise and costs that cannot fall
At the beginning of 2022, the news of price reduction of high-end tea brands has been spread in the industry.
At that time, Xi tea announced a price reduction of 1-7 yuan, and Naixue’s tea launched a “relaxed series” of up to 19 yuan. In March this year, it was officially announced that at least one new relaxed series tea drink of less than 20 yuan per month. Lele tea has also reduced the price to less than 20 yuan, and the lowest eight yuan can buy a cup of tea.
Naixue’s tea relaxed series, tuyuan Naixue’s official tea microblog
In June, the price reduction trend continued. Xi tea lowered the prices of many tea products again, claiming that there were no more drinks with more than 30 yuan, and Naixue took advantage of the situation to launch a product with the lowest price of 9 yuan per cup.
Price reduction is the general trend of the new tea market this year.
This is not good news for high-end tea brands such as Naixue tea, because the price cannot rise, and the profit space of the whole new tea industry will face a new round of shrinking.
In the 2021 new tea research report, the China Chain Management Association mentioned that in the next 2-3 years, the overall growth rate of new tea will slow down in stages, and 10% – 15% is a stable medium speed development.
This shows that the new tea market has bid farewell to the high growth, and the biggest purpose of price reduction is to attract vacant markets and consumers, while the sinking of high-end brands is to seek a broader market space.
The price war of high-end tea brands is imminent. This puts a lot of pressure on Naixue’s tea. Earlier, Peng Xin, the founder of Naixue tea, mentioned in an interview with Phoenix technology that “high-end milk tea is not profitable because its cost is very high.”
According to the 2021 annual report, Naixue’s tea raw material cost is 1.4 billion yuan, accounting for 32.6% of the revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 20.8%, which is the second largest cost expenditure of the group after the staff cost. This includes tea, dairy products, seasonal fruits, fruit juices and other raw materials.
Zhang Yi, chief analyst of AI media consulting, once said in an interview with 36 krypton, “the direct cost of a new cup of tea is about 1 / 4 of the price. With the development of the whole industry, the entry threshold is decreasing and the production cost is gradually decreasing.”  
However, the decline in production cost is the overall trend of the industry. For a single brand, the production cost of Naixue tea is still high in the industry. When the price reduction has become a new way of playing for peers, Naixue’s tea can only keep up with it.
Compared with peers, Naixue’s tea cost is indeed not small. In 2021, the total cost of Naixue employees was 1.42 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 54.3%. This is mainly due to the fact that Naixue has more tea shops than its peers. According to the Research Report of Guojin securities, the number of employees of Xi tea single store is 18-20, while that of Naixue tea is 25.
In order to control labor costs, Naixue’s tea
According to the report on the development of China’s new tea industry in the first half of 2022 released by AI media consulting, the scale of China’s new tea market in 2021 is 279.59 billion yuan, and it is expected to reach 333.38 billion yuan in 2023. Although the market demand is increasing, the overall growth rate is slowing down.
The store is expanding and the flow cannot keep up with it; In order to find new growth points, Naixue’s tea has also made some attempts other than new tea drinks.
On June 30, Naixue’s tea wechat official account said that users can get one Naixue coin for every 1 yuan spent, and they can become virtual shareholders by buying / selling virtual stocks with Naixue coin. Naixuebi can exchange gifts, vouchers, discount coupons, etc. at naixuebi mall.
The launch of Naixue coin seems to be a marketing means to improve the stickiness of consumption, but it has caused controversy in the market. Some people believe that although Naixue coin is a narrow non-two-way circulating token and is not regulated by financial management regulations, corporate behaviors such as “card drawing through games and lottery through large manufacturers’ tokens” have always been considered as “gambling like”.
In addition to marketing to attract people, Naixue’s tea has also made investment in recent years.
In June, the tea brand supplier “Tianye shares” landed in the capital market. According to the announcement, Naixue’s tea subscribed for 12 million shares at a price of 38.64 million yuan. In addition, Naixue’s tea is the largest customer of Tianye shares.
Investing in new tea brands is nothing new. Seesaw and teayan Yuese have made great achievements. Under the premise of limited market growth, it is not surprising that brands use investment to expand the market and support the valuation.
As the brand side, Naixue’s tea investment in its own suppliers may also be due to the consideration of reducing raw material costs and extending its own industrial chain.
Although Naixue’s tea has extended its tentacles to a wider area, it has not changed its main strategy. It is still accelerating its expansion and adhering to the “encryption” strategy. In the financial report of 2021, Naixue’s tea clearly stated that increasing the density of stores can help cultivate consumption habits. It is expected that 350 new tea shops will be opened in 2022.
Despite years of losses, Naixue’s tea still insists on paying for the “original heart”.
Many people in the industry told wired insight that a large part of Naixue’s tea loss is due to the cost of opening a store. Although the store is the key to seize market share, it still needs to consider the cost and rent.
At present, shop simplification has become the trend of the new tea market. The shop types of “Xi tea go” and “Naixue tea Pro” are good examples.
However, after reducing the baking area, Naixue’s tea Pro is still large. According to the comparison of wired insight, the area of Naixue’s tea pro shop is 80-200 square meters, while the area of “Xi tea go” is 60-70 square meters.
The large area and high cost affect the floor efficiency of Naixue’s tea store. Northeast Securities Research Report shows that naixuebiao
Naixue’s tea hasn’t reached the turning point yet
相比于同行,奈雪的茶成本支出的确不小。2021年,奈雪员工总成本为14.2亿元,同比增长54.3%。这主要由于奈雪的茶单店人数较同行更多。国金证券研报显示,喜茶单店员工数为18-20人,而奈雪的茶则为25人。

为了控制人力成本,奈雪的茶除了直接削减人力外,还在重金投入自动化流程。奈雪的茶表示,自研自动化制茶设备已于2021年第四季度末开始遴选生产商及试生产,并已陆续在部分门店试点使用,预计将于2022年第三季度前在全国门店正式应用。

据刺猬公社报道,奈雪方面人士透露,通过自动化设备的落地以及整体SOP(标准作业程序)设计,奈雪门店的人力成本保守估计可以节省2%-3%。

更重要的是,追求“第三空间”的大店模式,让奈雪的茶在租金成本上也高于其他同行。东北证券曾在研报中测算,奈雪租金占总营收的比重为15%-17%,而喜茶则为7%-9%。

图源奈雪的茶官网

一面是涨不上去的价格,一面是降不下来的成本,奈雪的茶困境已经摆在面前。

更何况,这几年奈雪的茶的订单平均销售值,也就是客单价已经在下降。2021年年报披露,其订单平均销售值为每笔41.6元,这是继2018年的每笔订单48.7元、2020年的43.0元的又一次下降。

明显的对比是,租金、人力、原材料的成本都在上涨,而为了抢夺更多市场和消费者,开店和降价又一个都少不得,奈雪的茶正处于一个尴尬的两难境地。

做投资、搞营销,难成解药

“开一家面包店,在阳光温暖的午后,坐在自己的店里喝一杯茶,品尝自己亲手烘焙的面包,享受生活的美好。”

这是奈雪的茶创始人彭心的梦想。也是这个梦想,让奈雪的茶致力成为“中国星巴克”。

奈雪的茶创始人彭心,图源奈雪的茶官网

“我们始终觉得对于线下,门店不是一个单纯的生产场所,而是一个品牌的体验场所。”彭心曾在接受采访时多次表示。

在这样的追求之下,奈雪的茶的门店越来越多、越开越大。2021年,奈雪的茶净新增326家门店,远高于同期喜茶186家门店的增速。

门店作为触达消费者的窗口固然重要,但以规模化取胜是行业初期的打法,现阶段新消费遇冷是事实,新茶饮也进入增长缓慢时期。

据艾媒咨询发布的《2022年上半年中国新式茶饮行业发展现状》报告显示:2021年中国新式茶饮市场规模为2795.9亿元,预计2023年达到3333.8亿元。市场需求虽在增加,但整体增速却在放缓。

店铺在扩张,流量跟不上;成本在增加,产品却降价,为了找到新的增长点,奈雪的茶还做了一些新茶饮之外的尝试。

6月30日,奈雪的茶微信公众号发文称,用户每消费1元即可得1个奈雪币,使用奈雪币买入/卖出虚拟股票即可成为虚拟股东。奈雪币可在奈雪币商城兑换礼品、代金券、打折券等。

奈雪币的推出,看似是提高消费黏性的营销手段,但引发了市场上的争议,有声音认为,尽管奈雪币是狭义的非双向流通式代币,不受金融管理法规规制,但“游戏抽卡、通过大厂代币抽奖”等企业行为一直被认为有“类赌博”之嫌。

除了做营销吸引人流外,奈雪的茶这几年还在做投资。

6月,茶饮品牌的供应商“田野股份”登陆资本市场。根据公告显示,奈雪的茶以3864万元,认购了1200万股。此外,奈雪的茶还是田野股份的第一大客户。

新茶饮品牌做投资,早已不是新鲜事。喜茶投资Seesaw、茶颜悦色投资果呀呀,在市场增量有限的前提下,品牌以投资来拓宽市场、支撑估值不足为奇。

此次作为品牌方,奈雪的茶投资自己的供应商,或许也是出于降低原料成本、延伸自身产业链的考量。

尽管奈雪的茶将触角伸到更广阔的地方,但在主要的策略上,却没有转向,还在加速扩张,坚持“加密”战略。2021年财报中,奈雪的茶明确表示加大门店密度可以帮助培养消费习惯,2022年预计还将新开350家茶饮店。

连年亏损,却还要继续开店,奈雪的茶依然执着于为“初心”买单。

多位行业人士都向连线Insight表示,奈雪的茶亏损原因很大一部分源于开店的成本,门店虽然是抢占市场份额的关键,但仍要以考虑成本、租金为前提。

目前,店铺精简化已经成为新茶饮市场的趋势,“喜茶GO”“奈雪的茶PRO”的店型都是很好的例证。

不过,缩减烘焙区域之后,奈雪的茶PRO仍较大。据连线Insight对比,奈雪的茶PRO店的面积为80-200平方米,而“喜茶 GO”的面积则为60-70平方米。

面积大、成本高,影响了奈雪的茶门店的坪效。东北证券研报显示,奈雪标准门店和PRO店的年坪效分别为5.1万元/平方米和5.8万元/平方米。相较之下,喜茶标准门店和GO店的年坪效分别为9.4万/平方米和12.2万元/平方米。

新茶饮市场从来不缺新的品牌,奈雪的茶虽然抢先上市,但迟迟未跑通盈利模型,商业模式一直备受质疑。目前来看,新消费热潮降温,奈雪的茶对标星巴克的打法或许也需要调整。想要穿越周期,迎来拐点,奈雪的茶还需要继续奔跑。

作者:王慧莹;来源:连线Insight(ID:lxinsight),转载已获得授权。
转载授权及媒体商务合作:Amy(微信号:13701559246);
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