China Food

Ruixing, why are you making more and more money?

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if the equity litigation expenses are excluded, Ruixing coffee has actually been profitable in the second quarter. Why did Ruixing, once at a low ebb, complete her magnificent turn in such a short time?
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Ruixing is completing a counter attack.
On August 4, an article by FRISO alenus, a Wall Street analyst, ignited the catering circuit. Analysts said that since 2022, despite the impact of the epidemic, the global economic headwind and the global market sell-off, the performance of Ruixing coffee still far exceeds the standard & Poor’s index (spy) and Starbucks.
The analyst especially pointed out that the number of Ruixing coffee stores has expanded rapidly, and in fact it has become the largest coffee chain brand in China.
 
On August 8, Ruixing announced the Q2 financial report of 2022. The financial report also confirmed the judgment of the above analysts.
According to the financial report of Ruixing, in the second quarter of 2022, the total revenue of Ruixing coffee reached 3.299 billion yuan, a sharp increase of 72.4% over the second quarter of 2021, of which the sales growth rate of self operated stores was 41.2%, and the profit rate of self operated stores was 30.6%.
While the revenue data is encouraging, what makes investors more happy is that the total number of stores of Ruixing coffee has far exceeded that of Starbucks, and in the overall business level, Ruixing coffee has a tendency to narrow the gap with Starbucks.
Ruixing, who once fell into a low ebb due to the financial fraud, why did he complete such a magnificent turn?

The number of monthly average trading customers increased sharply

The most important indicators to measure Internet e-commerce are the number of monthly activities and the number of daily activities. For the Internet based catering enterprises such as Ruixing coffee, the measurement indicator is of course the average number of monthly trading customers.
According to the financial report, in the second quarter of 2022, the average number of monthly trading customers of Ruixing coffee reached 20.7 million, with a year-on-year increase of 68.6%. Facing the gratifying situation that the average number of monthly trading customers increased by nearly 70%, it may indicate that Ruixing coffee is gradually coming out of the shadow and beginning to be accepted by consumers with high-quality products and services.
 
Thanks to its advantages, Ruixing coffee is also sought after in the capital market. As Ruixing coffee has been delisted from Nasdaq, but the increase of lkncy at the beginning of the session expanded, and it rose by more than 11.7% in the powder list market, reaching US $15.56. This is also the highest daily increase of Ruixing coffee in the powder list market. Based on the share price, the total market value of Ruixing coffee has reached US $4.5 billion.
Xu Yi, an analyst in the financial industry, believes that during the epidemic period, especially when the first tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, the main markets of Ruixing coffee, were affected by the epidemic, it is really rare to achieve such results.
Xu Yi pointed out: “it is obvious that Ruixing’s Q2 financial report is higher than the market expectation. Under the circumstances that many industries and enterprises are struggling to survive under the epidemic, Ruixing has handed over such an answer sheet that is almost faultless. Although Ruixing still has some problems, it is slow
Also under the influence of the epidemic, Ruixing coffee achieved an increase of 72.4% in the Chinese market, while Starbucks directly decreased by 40% year-on-year. Based on the Chinese market, the total revenue of Starbucks in the Chinese market is 540 million US dollars, about 3.645 billion yuan, only 346 million yuan more than Ruixing coffee.
But don’t forget that Starbucks entered the Chinese market in 1999, and Ruixing coffee was just established in June 2017. Compared with the international major brands that have been deeply engaged in the Chinese market for 23 years, Ruixing coffee is more like a challenger of rising stars. It is almost like a counter attack to be on the same level with Starbucks in just five years. In addition, the development of Ruixing coffee has been delayed for two years due to the financial turmoil in the past five years.

Chen Meng, a coffee shop operator in the UK, thinks that it is very common for Starbucks to fail to beat local brands. Such things also happen in the UK. Even in the UK, Starbucks only ranks third in market share, lagging behind local brands Costa and Greggs.
By the end of 2021, the number of Starbucks stores in the United Kingdom was 1025, the number of British local coffee brand Costa was 2681, the number of Greggs stores was 2078, and the number of Starbucks stores was less than half of them.
Chen Meng also believes that such a situation is particularly unusual in China, because British consumers generally have the habit of drinking coffee, and there is a large consumer market. It is very normal for local coffee brands to rise. People who drink coffee in China are not very common. As a local coffee chain brand in China, Ruixing coffee is not easy to surpass Starbucks in just a few years.
From the perspective of active users, Starbucks takes a high-end route, and the number of active users in the country is only 4 million at the peak. It is worth noting that the latest second quarter report of Starbucks shows that its active users have halved to 2 million, and it competes with the monthly active users of Ruixing coffee with more than 20 million people. Even if the customer price of Starbucks is much higher than Ruixing coffee, it is difficult to fight. The balance of the first domestic coffee brand is gradually tilting toward Ruixing coffee.
From the perspective of single store output, Starbucks also performs poorly in the Chinese market. Starbucks has 5761 stores in China, accounting for 36.6% of 15650 in the US market, but its revenue only accounts for 9.6% of the US market. The average store output in the Chinese market is US $93734, about RMB 623000. The average store output in the US market is US $359100, about RMB 2424000. The output of Starbucks in the Chinese market is 25.7% of that in the US.
 
In the second quarter, the total revenue of Ruixing coffee was 3.299 billion yuan, the total number of stores was 7195, and the average single store output was 459000 yuan, accounting for 74% of Starbucks. The difference is not obvious. Moreover, considering the area and geographical location of Starbucks, the floor efficiency per square meter of Ruixing coffee is significantly higher than that of Starbucks.
Chen Meng pointed out:
Ruixing coffee now has all the equipment connected to the Internet of things. The advantage of this is that the headquarters can understand the equipment status in real time, reduce the impact of the equipment on the production products, and obtain the minimum index of the profit of the store through big data analysis, so as to maximize the floor efficiency. For example, through the Internet of things, it can be concluded that the average store only needs to sell 200 cups a day to make a profit, while Starbucks stores need to sell at least 400 cups a day to make a profit.
In addition, Ruixing coffee completely connected the supply chain is also a key factor. It is reported that Ruixing coffee’s second coffee roasting plant (Kunshan plant) has signed an investment agreement in the second quarter, with a design capacity of 30000 tons. In addition to reducing costs by investing in the construction of a coffee plant, Ruixing coffee can also become an industrial supplier. Under the situation of widely promising coffee market prospects, Ruixing coffee has completely solved the supply chain problems.
Liu Bo, an investor, was deeply impressed by the standardization of Ruixing coffee. Liu Bo pointed out: “Ruixing coffee is served every 2 minutes, which is very powerful. This is related to the hot drinking characteristics of coffee. The Internet of things can minimize the cost of Ruixing coffee and maximize the profit. This is also the key to the profit of Ruixing coffee in the last two quarters.”
Liu Bo believes that the small shop model of Ruixing coffee is flexible, low cost and high output, which is also a major reason for its profit. What Liu Bo admires most is the importance that Ruixing coffee attaches to private traffic.
According to the annual report data of Ruixing coffee in 2021, Ruixing coffee has established nearly 10000 user welfare groups throughout the country, and has chosen to use enterprise wechat as its private domain and community. Among them, there are nearly 2 million private domain users, and they are still increasing.
“The customer stickiness of private traffic is very great. It can connect with enterprise wechat through wechat group, and even realize user tag identification. Ruixing coffee has made great contributions to the development of private traffic today, but Starbucks has always been unable to put down its position to do private traffic. When it realized the importance of private traffic, it was actually too late.” The private domain traffic mentioned by Liu Bo has a great impact on Ruixing coffee and has become the third largest order source after app and applet.
Ruixing official said that through private domain traffic, the monthly consumption frequency of users increased by 30%, the number of weekly re purchases increased by 28%, and the Mau increased by about 10%. Now, in terms of private domain traffic, users have placed more than 35000 orders. If they pass the reminder, they will promote more than 100000 orders again. The daily increment of Ruixing coffee through private domain traffic is equivalent to 14 more cups per store.
“There are few ultra-low discounts for Ruixing coffee now, and the previous promotion of 20% and 30% has almost disappeared. However, by reducing its own costs, paying attention to private domain traffic, and quickly allowing consumers to drink steaming coffee in a standardized way, it can fully attract consumers and it is natural to make money.” Liu Bo is optimistic about the future profit model of Ruixing coffee.
Still can’t rest easy
Ruixing’s development momentum is so rapid, isn’t it
In recent years, Starbucks stores are mostly in the third tier and lower cities, which shows that Starbucks has also begun to explore the market. Especially when the underdeveloped cities in the north and northwest of China have large penetration space, the penetration competition of the sinking market is equally important. However, in terms of the number of stores, Starbucks can not compete with Ruixing coffee. The scale of Starbucks’ stores is much higher than Ruixing coffee. The “small quick spirit” store model of Ruixing is conducive to rapid expansion.
  
“Consumers have their own fixed consumption habits. The Internet characteristics of Ruixing coffee make its brand effect obvious. It is very difficult for coffee brands behind to snatch people from consumers who have formed consumption habits.” Gaopei believes that as long as Ruixing coffee maintains a sense of crisis and does not make major mistakes, it is difficult for those emerging brands to shake its position.

Completion of debt restructuring and countdown to listing
Ruixing achieved such brilliant results in Q2, and the debt restructuring laid a solid foundation for the rapid development in the second quarter.
It is reported that the company completed the debt restructuring in the first quarter and made substantial progress in the handling of class actions of overseas shareholders. The completion of the debt restructuring marks that Ruixing’s settlement of the US federal class action lawsuit has recently been finally approved by the US federal court, which means that most of the potential risks of the class action of foreign shareholders have been released. Ruixing may be re listed in the US stock market or A-share market and kill the capital market again.
On April 11, 2022, Ruixing announced that it had successfully completed financial debt restructuring and was no longer subject to bankruptcy or insolvency proceedings in any jurisdiction. On the same day, Guo Jinyi, chairman and CEO of Ruixing coffee, said that with the support of creditors, Ruixing coffee ended its bankruptcy proceedings as a debtor. He emphasized that “today marks the new beginning of Ruixing coffee”. It can be seen that debt restructuring is of great significance to Ruixing coffee.
“If the debt restructuring cannot be completed, Ruixing will not be listed again. Now that the debt restructuring has been completed, it will relieve the concerns of many investors and greatly promote the re listing of Ruixing. The new CFO of Ruixing is most likely to be prepared for the listing.” Liu Zhigang, the investor, has a better understanding of Jingjing, the new CFO of Ruixing. Jingjing served as the CFO of Lanxun communication, 58 home and Swan home from 2014 to 2020.
Liu Zhigang stressed: “Both 58 home and Swan home have gone public. At this time, the CFO is changing and the possibility of Ruixing coffee being re listed is increasing. From the current perspective, the basic conditions for the conversion of Ruixing coffee are: to meet the requirements of net assets, market value, circulating shares, minimum stock price of $4 in 90 trading days, more than 300 shareholders, and more than three market makers. These conditions are no longer difficult for Ruixing coffee and have been met.”
Guo Jinyi also made it clear at the telephone conference that he hoped that the quiet participation would enable Ruixing to develop to a new level. As for whether the new stage refers to the listing, I believe the answer will be revealed soon. Ruixing coffee will be re listed or has entered the countdown.
As Wall Street analysts said, Ruixing
Ruixing, why are you making more and more money?
此外,瑞幸咖啡完全打通了供应链也是关键因素。据悉瑞幸咖啡第二家咖啡烘焙工厂(昆山工厂)已于第二季度签订完成了投资协议,设计产能 3 万吨,瑞幸咖啡通过投资建设咖啡工厂来降低成本之外,还可以成为产业供应商,在咖啡市场前景被广泛看好的形势下,彻底解决了供应链难题。
投资人刘波对瑞幸咖啡的标准化印象深刻。刘波指出:“瑞幸咖啡2分钟一单,这点很厉害,这和咖啡的热饮特性有关,而物联网化,能让瑞幸咖啡的成本降到最低,能实现利润的最大化,这也是瑞幸咖啡最近两个季度实现盈利的关键所在。”
刘波认为,瑞幸咖啡所走的小店模式机动灵活,成本低而产出高,也是其盈利的一大原因。最让刘波推崇的是瑞幸咖啡对私域流量的重视。
根据2021年瑞幸咖啡年报数据可知,瑞幸咖啡在全国范围内建立了近万个用户福利群,并选择用企业微信做私域和社群,其中私域用户已近200万人,且还在持续不断增加之中。
“私域流量的客户粘性极大,可以通过微信群和企业微信对接,甚至可以实现用户标签识别,瑞幸咖啡能有今日的发展,私域流量功不可没,而星巴克始终放不下身段来做私域流量,当意识到私域流量的重要性时,其实已经晚了。”刘波所说的私域流量对瑞幸咖啡影响确实很大,已经成为继APP和小程序后的第三大订单来源。
瑞幸官方曾表示,通过私域流量,用户的月消费频次提升了30%,周复购人数提升了28%,MAU提升了10%左右。如今,在私域流量方面,用户下单超过3.5万杯,如果通过提醒信息后,还会再度促单10万杯以上。瑞幸咖啡每天通过私域流量带来的增量相当于每个门店多出14杯。
“瑞幸咖啡现在的超低优惠已经很少,以前2折3折的的促销现在几乎消失了,但通过降低自身成本,重视私域流量,以标准化的方式快速让消费者喝上冒着热气的咖啡,这完全能吸引消费者,赚钱也是理所当然的。”刘波对瑞幸咖啡未来的盈利模式持乐观态度。

仍然不能高枕无忧

瑞幸发展势头如此迅猛,难道可以高枕无忧了吗?答案是否定的。
瑞幸咖啡最低落的两年时间给了其他竞争对手发展的机会,此时中国咖啡市场已基本上完成了市场教育,并逐渐成熟,国内众多咖啡品牌正在迅速崛起。
瑞幸需要面对的竞争对手不仅是星巴克这样的老牌对手,还有像Manner、Seesaw这样的后起之秀,虽然瑞幸咖啡在第二季度的业绩表现亮眼,却还未达到高枕无忧的霸主地位。
面对规模千亿的咖啡市场,众多资本纷纷涌入打造了数百个咖啡品牌。据统计,目前国内市场咖啡连锁品牌约733个,大多企业都是规模不大的起步阶段,但门店超过100家的咖啡品牌依然高达28个。
这已经让瑞幸咖啡看到了内卷的紧迫感。比如被称为“小瑞幸”的Manner,其背后有互联网大厂字节跳动的扶持,资本十分雄厚。Manner产品单杯平均价格已经达到22.08元,超过了瑞幸咖啡的单杯平均价格19.4元,且在门店扩张上同样迅猛,其融资速度、开店速度都大有和瑞幸咖啡抢夺市场的野心。
 
餐饮行业研究员高培对中国咖啡市场前景看好,“咖啡是种容易上瘾而产生依赖的消费品,在一定程度上成了众多消费者的刚需,且这一群体是在逐渐壮大的,这让咖啡赛道成为资本玩家眼中的好赛道。”
高培同时提醒,过多热钱进入咖啡赛道,就会加剧行业“内卷”,甚至会出现不正当竞争,对瑞幸咖啡来说此时不能掉以轻心。因为瑞幸咖啡错过了一段黄金发展期,正是这段黄金发展期给了其他竞争对手机会。
“好在目前瑞幸咖啡已经渡过艰难时刻,逐渐从阴影中走出,步入了一个健康良性有序的发展轨道,其中瑞幸咖啡的品牌红利、规模红利及护城河红利已经凸显。在很长一段时间内,瑞幸咖啡虽然有危机,但仍会是第一国产咖啡品牌。”在高培看来,瑞幸咖啡的品牌效应足够明显,即便瑞幸咖啡的客单价偏低,但仍能依靠月活用户规模,未来实现全面盈利。
星巴克近年的门店多在三线及以下城市,这表明星巴克也开始进行市场下探,尤其是国内北方和西北部的欠发达城市具备较大渗透空间的情况下,下沉市场的渗透较量同样重要。但从门店数量上竞争,星巴克是比不过瑞幸咖啡的,星巴克的门店规模远高于瑞幸咖啡,瑞幸“小快灵”的门店模式反而有利于迅速扩张。
  
“消费者有自己固定的消费习惯,瑞幸咖啡互联网特质让其品牌效应明显,后面的咖啡品牌想从已经形成消费习惯的消费者中抢人难度很大。”高培认为瑞幸咖啡只要保持危机感,自身不犯重大错误,那些新兴品牌很难撼动其地位。

债务重组完成,上市倒计时

瑞幸能在Q2取得如此亮眼的成绩,债务重组为第二季度的迅猛发展夯实了基础。
据悉瑞幸于一季度完成了债务重组,在境外股东集体诉讼处理方面取得了实质性进展。债务重组的完成标志着目前瑞幸的美国联邦集体诉讼和解,已于近期获得了美国联邦法院的最终批准,这意味着境外股东集体诉讼的绝大多数潜在风险得到释放,瑞幸有可能在美股或A股重新上市,重新杀回资本市场。
2022年4月11日,瑞幸宣布已成功完成金融债务重组,不再受制于任何司法管辖区的破产或无力偿债程序。当日,瑞幸咖啡董事长、CEO郭谨一称,在债权人的支持下,瑞幸咖啡结束作为债务人的破产程序。他着重强调“今天标志着瑞幸咖啡的新开始”,可见债务重组对瑞幸咖啡有着极其重要的意义。
“债务重组如果完成不了,瑞幸就没有再次上市的可能,如今债务重组已经完成,这样就解除众多投资人的担忧,对瑞幸再次上市有巨大的推动作用。瑞幸新换CFO,大概率就是为了转板上市准备的。”投资人刘志刚比较了解瑞幸新任CFO安静,安静曾在2014-2020年间先后担任蓝汛通讯、58到家、天鹅到家的CFO。
刘志刚强调:“58到家和天鹅到家都有过上市经历,此时更换CFO,瑞幸咖啡重新上市的可能正在变大。从目前看,瑞幸咖啡转版的基本条件是:满足净资产、市值、流通股、90个交易日的最低股价达到4美元、股东超过300人,以及有三个以上的做市商等要求。这些条件对瑞幸咖啡来说已经没有难度,都已经满足。”
郭谨一在电话会上也明确表示,希望安静的加入可以令瑞幸发展上新的台阶。至于新台阶是否指的是上市,相信不久就会揭晓答案,瑞幸咖啡重新上市或已进入倒计时。
正如华尔街分析师所言,瑞幸是极其幸运的,纵观美股市场没有几家企业能在经历如此大的波折后迅速站起来。能让瑞幸实现华丽转身的,或许靠的并不是运气,而是瑞幸脚踏实地的经营模式和新管理层的正确路线。

作者:梦萧;来源:BT财经(ID:btcjv1),转载已获得授权
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