China Food

“Ruixing consensus” of coffee


 

在瑞幸盈利之后,咖啡扩张之风再起。

 

线下连锁咖啡门店的生意正在迅速成为一种共识。
在2022年备显疲态的线下业态和分外冷清的消费投资市场中,我们看到,咖啡连锁是难得的仍然保持扩张和被资本追捧的线下业态。
据极海数据显示,过去90天,瑞幸和蜜雪冰城旗下的咖啡品牌幸运咖分别开店471家和425家。星巴克中国和挪瓦咖啡也曾向我们表示,到今年年底计划新开店数量200余家和1千余家。
合众合创始人姚哲也向我们确认,近期每个区域的连锁咖啡品牌几乎都在被资本追逐,行业盛景有些像当年的茶饮市场,区域内的大小品牌也都在孵化自己的咖啡业务线——虽然业绩可能还未达预期。
为什么是咖啡?
咖啡是一个在欧美市场确认过的大品类,较奶茶也有更高的成瘾性和更高的复购率,且中国的人均咖啡消费杯量相较于成熟市场仍然极低——这些都是早就已知的品类特征。
但,为什么这些特征一直都有,咖啡赛道却在今年有突然加速的势头?
一个关键的时间节点在于,2022年第一季度瑞幸的首次经营性盈利。这使得中国咖啡市场自此有了第二个验证成功的连锁模式模板。
此前唯一成功模板只有星巴克:对第三空间的高度重视,主打商务社交,超过40元的客单价。
但从实际情况来看,星巴克的模式又太不具有可复制性:1999年即进入中国市场,牢牢占据商务咖啡甚至是咖啡本身的消费者心智,在强调空间的扩张过程中早期又享受了太多商业地产的红利。
学不了星巴克,韩系咖啡一阵风起又草草落幕,更多的普通咖啡店从业者只能走独立精品咖啡馆的道路,在一片蛮荒的咖啡市场中停留在在意调性的小而美阶段。
即便是瑞幸在2017年以疯狂补贴的颠覆者形象进入咖啡市场、即便是2020年再次掀起一次咖啡融资热潮,对于「大多数中国人到底需不需要咖啡」的争论也依然尚未停止。
直到经历了诸多波折的瑞幸模板终于被市场所验证:弱化空间消费,搭建一整套更基于数据驱动的运营模式,提供更偏日常消费的低客单价(15至20元左右),和推出更加降低尝试门槛的适口性爆款产品(如生椰拿铁等)。
至此,一个以标准化和平民化为特征、兼具可借鉴性和可操作性的行业标准答案被展示在所有人面前。咖啡扩张之风再起。
Parity chain template
in fact, Ruixing’s templates are not made in a day.
a high-level person of Ruixing’s start-up team once told us that at the beginning of the birth of Ruixing, we only saw a small entry point of market opportunities – Coffee delivery. The market environment around 2018 is that the demand for takeout is booming, but traditional giants such as Starbucks and Costa do not provide takeout services. Many office buildings and parks have special coffee errands.
Starbucks itself has a high unit price per customer and a high purchasing fee. In order to make a single order, a person in an office usually serves seven or eight cups at a time. At the same time, these agents also earn a lot of money, and even realize a monthly income of 100000 when the single volume is large.
this enables Ruixing’s startup team to see the huge demand for takeout coffee and two possible directions to meet the demand and further open the market: one is to open more stores, and the other is to reduce the unit price per customer. In the way of reducing the unit price of customers, the
has played a prominent role so far, including the improvement of supply chain efficiency driven by data and store efficiency driven by automation equipment, and the abandonment of the third space starting from online delivery. Of course, when a group of Internet people swept the market in the form of subsidies, Ruixing also took many detours. Then, until the opening of the store model in the sinking market and the birth of the popular single product, raw coconut latte, Ruixing not only turned the corner, but also reached its current height.
Ruixing saw the opportunity to sink the market. However, at the beginning, it was too difficult to sink through coffee, so Xiaolu tea was born. However, the independent operation of the two brands appears inefficient as the consumption habits of the sinking market become more similar to those of the high-speed cities, and the two brands eventually merge. Perhaps, at the same time, the R & D vision and R & D ideas have been merged. In the continuous horizontal jump and exploration, we stepped on the popular category of coconut.
before the Ruixing model was publicly verified in Q1 2022, the price band of coffee had basically formed. The
is located on the top floor of the top-level coffee brand, such as blue bottle, with a single cup price of about 40 to 50 yuan; Secondly, represented by the business social networking Starbucks and the trendy social networking m stand, which mainly play the third space, the price of a single cup is about 30 to 40 yuan; Next, there are affordable boutique coffee such as Ruixing, manner and Novak coffee, with a single cup price of about 15 yuan; The lowest layer is the retail coffee products of cold extraction and lyophilization, such as three and a half tons and Sumida Kawa. The price of a single cup is about 5 yuan. At the same time, the price of a single cup is about 10 to 20 yuan, which is also a parity drink price band verified by the tea industry and with a broad consumption base. Consumers’ purchases are more frequent, and they can also have sufficient sinking space and the upper limit of the number of stores. Guo Xingjun, the founder of
Nova coffee, also expressed his firm belief in affordable fine coffee. He cited the data that the average single cup price of the three most cost-effective coffee in the North American market is about US $3 (Starbucks, Dunkin’d)
On the other hand, compared with the tea industry, coffee also has the advantage of more standardized supply chain and store production.
first of all, the main raw materials of coffee are coffee beans and milk, both of which have mature and global industrial system and supply chain system. Compared with tea + fruit, the management difficulty is reduced by several orders of magnitude.
secondly, in the process of store production, although some coffee chain brands still use semi-automatic coffee machines for the sake of taste, and the training period for baristas is about 3 to 6 months, many brands, including Ruixing, TIMS and Starbucks in most stores, have already used full-automatic coffee machines. If the training is fast, the baristas can take up their posts within a few days. Under the use environment where several buttons on the automatic coffee machine are required to be pressed, the operation requirements of the
are much lower than those of the tea shop for peeling grapes, cutting mangoes and tamping lemons by hand. With a large enough market space, the standardization of products and store types also means that entrepreneurs can quickly lead new teams to launch. Cao Yuzhi, founder of
crooked coffee (cup unit price: 10-15 yuan, started in Ningbo and now has more than 20 stores), who has transformed from the tea industry to the coffee industry, once took tea Baidao as an example to explain to us how quickly rising stars along the success template after having successful experience and absorbing industry talents from successful teams: in 2019, tea Baidao only had hundreds of stores in China, However, by the end of 2021 two years later, the number of stores had reached nearly 4500.
in the coffee industry, the expansion speed may be faster by adding entrepreneurial teams with chain experience.
we have observed that in the financing boom in 2020, the founders of coffee brands that received financing are still mainly old-fashioned coffee people. They usually enter the coffee industry for reasons such as feelings or personal preference, and have many years of operation experience and industry accumulation in several coffee shops. They have come to the coffee investment outlet —
. Then they just joined the coffee track around 2020, The typical portraits of coffee entrepreneurs who have received investment in the past year are more inclined to former Ruixing people (such as the founding team of peekoo coffee) and former tea drinkers (such as the founding team of Wai coffee and four leaf coffee). Compared with the previous type of entrepreneurs, although the amount of financing they can get is no longer crazy, starting from scratch also makes their learning and further improvement of standard answers more light and burden free, and they often have more experience in the standardization and expansion of chain stores.
Micro innovation based on consensus
However, no matter how standardized the
is, it can not escape the geographical attribute of opening offline stores, which determines that chain coffee stores are not a one-stop market. While various regional brands are emerging, they learn from Ruixing, and also carry out micro innovation based on Ruixing mode based on their own team advantages, which is different from Ruixing. A most intuitive example of
is that some entrepreneurs mentioned to us that in the regional market where their brands are located, shopping
Consumption habits still need to be cultivated
A 6031 coffee shop owner in an offline city once commented to the media this year: “Ruixing is’ living Lei Feng ‘. Our independent coffee shop is getting better and better, thanks to the help of Dalian locks.” In terms of the general trend, since the rise of various new types of tea drinks in 2015, young people aged 18 to 28 at that time have been freed from classic products such as iced black tea and fragrant tea, and have gradually developed the habit of consuming ready-made cup beverages. With the increase of age, social status and health awareness, coffee may be able to meet the consumption demand of these consumers aged 25 to 35 (and above). Along with the improvement of palatability of various flavored coffee, the price of more cost-effective coffee reduces the consumption threshold, and the convenience of more stores, the penetration rate of coffee is indeed gradually increasing.
also has meituan takeout data, which shows that in 2021, the coffee order volume of the third tier cities increased nearly 2 times year-on-year, and the coffee order volume of the fourth and fifth tier cities increased more than 250% year-on-year. In the horizontal comparison of niche categories, coffee orders increased by 178.7% year-on-year, far exceeding tea drinks (90%), Chinese cakes (120%), snail powder (58%) and stewed snacks (50%).
in this process, the product innovation represented by the raw coconut latte mentioned above is only the first step of “pulling new”. After pulling new, how to “promote life”, so that consumers can improve their tolerance to the bitter taste of coffee and cultivate a fixed coffee consumption habit is still a problem that needs to be solved with concentrated efforts.
“if they were allowed to drink American style and espresso at the beginning, many people would not drink coffee for life,” said Li Junwei, founder of four leaf coffee, “We will make use of our digital capabilities to allow consumers to slowly adapt. For example, when we find that consumers have already consumed fruit coffee in the store many times in the background, we will recommend that they try cold extraction the next time they come, and then gradually latte, American style, hand brewed and other coffee beans of different flavors will be transformed along this path.” A 6031 coffee entrepreneur shared with us such a data insight: coffee is inherently more addictive than tea, and more prominent in refreshing function. Even if consumers are cultivated with various flavors of coffee, they will still have the need to reduce sugar when they drink to a certain extent, and finally switch to pure coffee such as American style. “It’s like when young people start drinking beer and then drink Baijiu later. Every time they drink one more glass, they can never return to the past.” A 6031 strategic marketing expert Xiao Ma song once described the significant difference between coffee and milk tea, especially in his attitude towards new products and classic products: “for example, coffee is like a symphony, and the audience can listen to Beethoven every time they come to listen to it; but milk tea is a talk show, and the audience listens to it. You can’t tell the same story. You can only have new stories.”
if this insight is indeed proved to be universal, then it means that compared with tea, the choice of large items for loyal coffee users is sufficient
Author: Xiao Chao; Source: narrowcast (ID: exact interaction), the reprint has been authorized. Reprint authorization and media business cooperation: Amy (wechat: 13701559246);
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“Ruixing consensus” of coffee
一位下线城市的咖啡店店主今年曾对媒体这样评价:「瑞幸就是『活雷锋』,我们独立咖啡馆能生意越来越好,全靠大连锁帮衬。」
从大趋势上来说,自2015年后各类新式茶饮兴起,彼时18岁至28岁的年轻人群从冰红茶、香飘飘等经典产品中解脱出来,被慢慢培养出了消费现制现售杯装饮料的习惯。随着年龄、社会地位和健康意识的增加,这部分如今25岁至35岁(及以上)的消费者,咖啡或许能够承接他们对于现制饮料的消费需求。
伴随着各式各样的风味咖啡提高适口性、更具性价比的售价降低消费门槛、更多数量的门店提高便捷性,咖啡的渗透率的确在逐步提高。
也有美团外卖数据显示,2021年全年三线城市咖啡订单量同比增长接近2倍,四五线城市的咖啡订单量同比增长超过250%。而在小众品类的横向对比中,咖啡订单量同比增长178.7%,远超茶饮(90%)、中式糕点(120%)、螺蛳粉(58%)、卤味小吃(50%)等。
在这个过程中,前述提到以生椰拿铁为代表的产品创新只是「拉新」的第一步,拉新之后如何「促活」,让消费者提高对咖啡苦味的耐受度、培养固定的咖啡消费习惯,仍是需要集中精力去解决的问题。
「如果一开始就让他们去喝美式和浓缩,很多人就终身不喝咖啡了」,四叶咖创始人李俊伟说道,「我们会利用我们的数字化能力,让消费者慢慢的适应。比如当在后台发现消费者在店里已经多次消费了果咖,我们会推荐他下一次来的时候尝试一下冷萃,然后再往后逐渐是拿铁、美式、手冲、其他不同口味的咖啡豆,沿着这样的路径去转化。」
有咖啡创业者向我们分享这样一种数据洞察:咖啡本来就比茶饮的成瘾性更强、且更突出提神的功能性,即便用了各种风味咖啡去培养消费者,他们在喝到一定程度时还是会有再减糖的需求,最终转向美式等纯咖。「这就像年轻人刚开始喝啤酒,再往后喝白酒,每多喝一杯都再回不到从前。」
战略营销专家小马宋也曾这样描述咖啡这一与奶茶相比的显著差异,尤其体现在对新品和经典产品的态度上:「如果打个比方,咖啡像交响乐,观众每次来听,都可以听贝多芬;但奶茶是脱口秀,观众来听脱口秀,你没办法讲同样的段子,你只能不断有新段子才行。」
如果这种洞察的确被证实有普遍性,那么它意味着,相较于茶饮,由于最终承接忠实咖啡用户的大单品选择足够经典和稳定,咖啡可能不会陷入过于强调产品创新的高度内卷中。
但仍然需要承认,国内市场咖啡整体的消费习惯与茶饮相比,差距仍然悬殊。以宁波为例,据歪咖啡介绍,销量不错的咖啡馆日销能达到300杯左右,而相同客单价的茶饮店日销则是500至600杯。
新的势力仍在不断涌入。
早前涌现过一批在便利店中增加现制咖啡的趋势,由于未能解决成本经济的问题很快偃旗息鼓。在新一轮的咖啡热潮中,除了像李宁、中石油、中国邮政这样的跨界代表,和上述提到的从0到1的创业者之外,茶饮品牌孵化咖啡品牌也是主流选择之一。
这类茶饮品牌的拓品类方式多为在茶饮菜单中增加咖啡SKU,而非开出独立咖啡门店。这种方式将有利于提升在不同时间段内的营业收入,如咖啡的下单高峰期在上午7到10点,而茶饮高峰期一般在10点之后。
但挑战在于,尤其在咖啡供给更加丰富之后,茶饮品牌是否能打破消费者的心理壁垒、让他们接受「在茶饮店买咖啡」这件事,实则还有待观察。
同样的,在咖啡供给迅速增加的进程中,在消费者需求端的增速能否能跟上,也尚未可知。
黑蚁资本运营董事(战略)季晓燕向我们分享机构的调研结果显示,一名消费者从咖啡入门到重度消费者(周消费4杯以上,年消费208杯以上),通常需要8到10年的时间,而现在一二三线城市的人均年消费杯量还只有48杯,距离208杯仍然相差很大。
如果将瑞幸诞生的2018年视作这一轮咖啡热的起点,在4年之后的现在仅在上海培养出了一批重度消费者,那么在上海之外的更多地方,咖啡市场走向成熟可能还需要5年左右。
瑞幸同店增速超40%的二季报成绩固然亮眼,但在归因上其仍然受益于疫情影响下小店模型、高外卖占比的灵活性。在这种情况下捧高贬低、认为瑞幸穿过了周期并唱衰星巴克的行为,并不理智。
瑞幸只是迎来了周期。在迅速达成共识的当下,虽然如前提到咖啡相较于茶饮可能不那么看重上新速度,但内卷也正在出现。像果咖此类在咖啡中加入鲜果就是方式之一,也有创业者向我们表示,「现在咖啡的毛利是70%,茶饮是50%,既然大家最终一定会卷,那不如我们一上来就先把自己降到50%。」
对咖啡市场的信心依然充足。番茄资本创始人卿永日前也曾提到,多位茶饮品牌创始人在与他的沟通中提及,认为「国内咖啡赛道的最终规模会超过茶饮」。
现阶段,大水漫灌,千帆竞渡。
者:肖超;来源:窄播(ID:exact-interaction),转载已获得授权。
转载授权及媒体商务合作:Amy(微信号:13701559246);
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