China Food

Young people’s consumption is rotten, and the brand still wants to upgrade consumption



“ 
The thickness of the
purse determines the height of the consumption concept.
 ”
Another friend’s company went bankrupt.
When I heard this news, I found out the bags of rice noodles in chicken soup that were stored at home – the booty of the instant killing in the live broadcast room watched by tens of thousands of people.
Unfortunately, the rice noodles have expired, just like the glory of its own company.
Two years ago, their company was also a new consumer brand standing on the tuyere. Relying on the characteristics of “a bowl of rice noodles and half a chicken”, it dominated the fast food sales list of many e-commerce platforms. The ROI of the live broadcast room easily reached 3. It was also taken by Tiktok as a b-end PR case——
Although the logic of investing 1 yuan to earn 3 yuan was proved to be a loss in the end, this superficial achievement has been enough to become the brand of others described by Tiktok when it attracts other brands to spend money.
At that time, the prince and the princess may have thought that they had lived happily ever since.
In the past two years, their company has entered a mysterious and exciting situation——
Financing – money burning promotion – continued financing – continued money burning promotion.
After a fierce cycle, the young founder, who was full of spirit, finally became a frustrated bankrupt boss.
Along with him, there are Wang satin, who used to be the most popular marketer and whose revenue has dropped by 70%, the ramen, which once sold a billion yuan and is now broken by the chain of funds, the bubble mart, which was once hot and whose market value has dropped by 80%, Wen Heyou and cha yanyuese, who once lined up for a long time and are now laid off, the perfect diaries and orange blossoms that once swept the whole network and are now rejected by the whole network
In the past two years, those new consumer brands that have passed through the screen have gone through similar roads, seen similar landscapes, and had similar highlight moments. Now they are either dead or still struggling.
On the new consumption track, no matter how wonderful the story, no matter how beautiful the promotion data, as long as there is no bottom salary of financing, it will become a pot of ashes.
A few days ago, a well-known investor also publicly shouted on Weibo, saying, “I don’t understand why so many investment institutions suddenly lose confidence in the new consumption field and stop investing.”.
Tut, why do you lose confidence? Don’t you investors understand?
Behind the bluff
The game of beating drums and passing flowers
Last summer, there was a story in the venture capital circle that sounded like a joke:
A donkey meat braised restaurant in Hebei, which has been open for more than 20 years, has been targeted by capital. At the same time, four or five capital companies found their bosses and rushed to give them money, hoping to help them “become bigger and stronger”.
This makes the boss feel afraid, and he can’t understand or understand what these swarming capitals want to do?
Of course, they want to take you as CEO and take you to the peak of your life. They will help you, a small and shabby shop, comply with the trend of “new consumerism” and sell donkey meat for 10 yuan
This is a figure that you, as a passer-by, can’t figure out by looking at the unit price of passengers and the flow of people and doing a multiplication problem in primary school.
What is the concept of “one store, one hundred million”?
Starbucks, which has been established for more than 50 years, now has 35000 stores worldwide, with a total market value of US $97.3 billion and a single store valuation of US $2.78 million.
Although we don’t know whether the products sold in other people’s stores are “ceiling level”, the capital quality of this people is “ceiling level”.
What kind of products can support such a store and brand valuation?
The adjectives of “x Hermes”, “XX ceiling”, “light of XX national products” and “new XX” have long been popular among different categories, brands and products. After you sing, I will come on stage. Everyone will take turns to sit in C.
The stereotyped adjectives, the stereotyped expansion mode, and the stereotyped “do marketing with your heart and do products with your feet” are followed by the stereotyped fall.
In August 2021, the new consumption gradually died down, starting from the collective collapse of China concept stocks and the breaking of new consumption companies.
Cvsource investment data shows that from January to June 2021, the financing volume of the whole consumption track was 595, and the transaction amount was 126.905 billion yuan. From June to December 2021, the number of financing of the consumption track was 483, and the transaction amount decreased to 76.670 billion yuan, nearly halving.
In the first half of the year, all the models that were sought after were not established in the second half of the year. All the flattered stories in the first half of the year were not believed in the second half of the year.
At the end of 2021, the attitude of the investment circle changed 180 degrees, threatening that “99% of new consumption will die within three years and half will die next year”.
Companies that make new consumption have become monsters that are afraid to avoid.
Investors who make new consumption leap from the top of the pyramid to the bottom of the contempt chain.
Even the consumers targeted by the new consumption have developed the self-discipline consciousness of “seeing but not buying”.
According to it orange data, in the first quarter of 2022, the total financing amount of the catering industry was less than 10% of that of last year; The number of financing projects and the amount of financing of the food and beverage track are less than 10% of that of last year.
By July 2022, some investors said that the consumption investment in the first half of the year had dropped by 70% year on year. Some investors say that those who still look at consumption now despise the bottom of the chain. Some investors said that I’m a consumer investor and haven’t opened a business in the last half year.
I saw him rise and fall.
In the promotion of to C, one of the adjectives that new consumer goods particularly like to use is “XX does not lose its shares”.
I don’t know if you feel lost after buying these products, but the last wave of investors who took over the offer must have cried.
The young people are all spending money
According to the market analysis and Consumer Research Report of China’s interim food industry in 2020, at present, 47.8% of China’s interim food consumers are aged 26-35, and more than seven of them are young people and more than six are middle-income groups.
This is not a consumption downgrade. This is a real consumption mess.
The reason for this is very simple. This generation of young people who have the highest hopes for new consumption can not only save money, but also find jobs.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, the national urban survey unemployment rate in June 2022 was 5.5%, of which the survey unemployment rate of 16-24 years old was 19.3%.
This is the highest record since the index was released in January 2018, far exceeding the international 7% unemployment warning red line. Not to mention that 10.76 million college students graduated in July, which overlapped with 19.3% of the youth unemployment, and the youth employment situation became more severe.
Young people in such a situation really have no money to pay for the high premium new consumption.
According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, from January to may 2022, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 17168.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.5%. In May alone, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 3354.7 billion yuan, down 6.7% year on year. Excluding the three-year inflation factor, the current total retail sales of consumer goods is worse than that in 2019.
As a result, the new consumption that once became popular among the young people was also abandoned by the young people who had been beaten by the society.
After all, the thickness of the wallet determines the height of the consumption concept.
My own life’s outer packaging has been torn off. How can I pay for other people’s outer packaging.
Iron strike supply chain
Flowing network red brand
After this spring tide, the young people have awakened, the brand has fallen, and the capital has been injured. Is it true that no one has benefited from such a large-scale investment?
In 2007, a company selling fruit juice was established. At that time, there was no new tea.
In 2015, the company was listed on the new third board and raised nearly 300 million yuan. At that time, its major customers were Huiyuan Juice, Nongfu mountain spring and Coca Cola.
At that time, Naixue’s tea was established, and the order volume soared rapidly, becoming the company’s largest customer.
By 2022, this company called Tianye Co., Ltd. is still unknown, but it makes profits every year and goes public with brilliant achievements.
Naixue’s tea, which is widely known, has suffered losses for four years. As the “first share of new tea drinks”, its market value has evaporated by 20 billion in one year.
When new consumer brands are collectively trapped in losses, suppliers collectively make money.
When Xicha laid off staff, Naixue lost money, Lele tea closed its shop, and all the milk tea sellers flew up, all the suppliers who “sold water” to these milk tea shops were ready to go on the market with their proud reports.
Young people’s consumption is rotten, and the brand still wants to upgrade consumption

出门逛街,先买一杯奶茶,边喝边溜达,看见卖网红麻薯、点心、脆皮五花肉的,也排个小队买份尝尝。

在家冲浪,刷到几篇网红美妆品牌的图文视频种了草,看着“一杯奶茶钱”的价格,下单两个试试。

半夜饿醒,刷刷短视频被浓油赤酱的食物特写勾起馋虫,看见正好有“限时折扣”,毫不犹豫买了一打。

当你尝试了一圈网红新消费之后,突然发现,其实网红奶茶小吃都是一个配方,网红美妆虽然便宜但真的很难用,网红零食包装花哨可性价比太低……

于是,你对“网红XX”开始祛魅了,甚至还有了点排斥。

当你戒断网红消费一段时间之后,突然发现,其实花20+买包速食拉面不如下楼吃碗现做的,买20个平替不如1个大牌好用,同样的东西包装花哨一点就贵几倍,那些非必要消费都没必要发生,花钱没有攒钱来得踏实,荷包变鼓比变瘪难太多了,……

后来,当“只要一杯奶茶钱”“第二件5元”的推销声音再次响起,得到的回应变成了:

“不好意思,我现在连5块的东西都不买了,只想买5毛的。”

比如low穿地心且廉价的,零食边角料。

从吐司的面包边、蛋糕的边角料,到猪肉脯的碎片、烤香肠的屁股,凌乱地堆在透明塑料袋里,毫无美感,卖正价商品的1折。

你看人家这个摆烂的包装,对比资本推崇的精致国潮风新消费,不能说一模一样,只能说毫不相干。

可就是这样真实得邋遢的商品,真实地卖爆了。

根据《2022Q1魔镜消费新潜力白皮书》,零食边角料是2022年增长幅度最高的潜力市场,单是2022年第一季度,淘宝上的边角料零食销售额超过2000万元。至于零食边角料的售卖主阵地拼多多,销量超10万的边角料食品更是比比皆是。

不仅如此,广大认清消费主义陷阱并勒紧裤腰带的年轻人,不光把零食边角料买成了一个市场,还把差几天就过期的食品也买成了一个市场。

《2020年中国临期食品行业市场分析及消费者研究报告》显示,目前中国临期食品消费者年龄为26-35岁的占比47.8%,超七成为青年群体,超六成为中等收入群体。

这都不是消费降级,这属于真实的消费摆烂了。

摆烂的原因很简单,这届被新消费最寄予厚望的年轻人,不仅存不下钱,连工作都找不到了。

根据国家统计局数据,2022年6月全国城镇调查失业率为5.5%,其中16~24岁人口调查失业率为19.3%。

这是自2018年1月该指标公布以来的最高纪录,远远超过了国际上7%的失业预警红线。更不要说7月后全国有 1076 万大学生毕业,与19.3%青年失业叠加,青年就业形势更加严峻。

这样处境下的年轻人,真的没钱为溢价高昂的新消费买单了。

根据国家统计局数据,2022年1—5月,社会消费品零售总额171689亿元,同比下降1.5%。单独看5月份,社会消费品零售总额33547亿元,同比下跌6.7%。剔除三年通胀因素,当前的社会消费品零售总额比2019年还差。

于是,那些曾经踩在年轻人心巴上火起来的新消费,也被经历过社会毒打的年轻人抛弃了。

毕竟荷包厚度决定消费观高度。
我自己的生活外包装都被撕去了,我还怎么为别人的外包装买单呢。
铁打的供应链
流水的网红品牌
这一场大潮过去,年轻人觉醒了,品牌倒下了,资本受伤了,如此兴师动众的投入,完全没有人获益嘛?

2007年,一家卖果汁的公司成立了,那时还没有新茶饮的影子。

2015年,这家公司在新三板挂牌,融资近3亿元,当时的大客户还是汇源果汁、农夫山泉、可口可乐。

那时,奈雪的茶成立了,且订单量迅速暴涨,一跃成为这家公司的第一大客户。

到了2022年,这家叫田野股份的公司,依然鲜为人知,却年年盈利,还带着亮眼的业绩去上市了。

而奈雪的茶,广为人知,却亏损了四年,作为“新式茶饮第一股”,在一年时间里市值蒸发了200亿。

当新消费品牌们集体困于亏损时,供应商们集体赚钱到手软。

当喜茶裁员,奈雪亏钱,乐乐茶关店,卖奶茶的全体卷到飞起时,给这些奶茶店“卖水”的供应商,齐刷刷带着傲人的成绩单,气定神闲地准备上市了。

卖纸杯的恒鑫生活,卖纸袋的南王科技,卖奶精的佳禾食品,卖果汁的田野股份、卖代糖的三元生物,卖调味料的宝立食品……

在这些公司的招股书里,可口可乐、娃哈哈、元气森林、喜茶、奈雪的茶、乐乐茶、瑞幸、星巴克、蜜雪冰城等大客户排排坐着,用一年上千万的订单,默默为供应商的精彩业绩背书。

谁承想,这些动辄数十亿的年营收的茶饮品牌,最后还没几家卖纸袋纸杯的利润高呢。

虽然近五年奶茶行业热火朝天,但开奶茶店仍然是一桩“十店九亏”的生意。艾媒咨询数据显示,全国可持续经营超过一年的奶茶店仅为18.8%。

而这些站在奶茶店背后的供应商们,最早的成立于1997年,最晚的成立于2007年,在一波又一波的品牌大战中屹立不倒,最终闷头赚到了钱。

流水的网红品牌,铁打的供应商。

同样的道理,在奶茶、食品、美妆等新消费品类上全部得到了印证。

不是所有的奶茶都能活过一年,但卖奶茶杯子的总能多活几年。

不是所有的网红零食都有回头客,但卖零食调味料的永远有回头客。

不是所有的新潮化妆品都有技术壁垒,但所有的化妆品牌都离不开卖玻尿酸的工厂。

这就像,虽然你不喝喜茶和奈雪了,但是你还要喝coco、喝蜜雪冰城,人家coco和蜜雪冰城也是要买杯子的。

从消费升级到消费降级,从消费降级到消费摆烂,花里胡哨的消费品牌一茬又一茬死去,只有背后朴实的消费供应链穿越风口活了下去。就像新茶饮一片热火烧过之后,只有那些卖“杯具”的长久地火了下去。

时代的一盆冷水浇下,浇灭了新消费烧钱营销的野火,浇灭了资本投机的狂热,也滋养了真消费的土壤。

根据国家统计局的数据,2021年中国GDP同比增长8.1%,其中消费支出贡献了5.3%的增长值,贡献率达到 65.4%。

新瓶装旧酒的套路不灵了,泡沫出清之后,只有认真卖酒的才能永远招徕喝酒的人。
者:赵小爅;来源:爅爅有闻(ID:chattycats),转载已获得授权。
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