China Food

What are we buying when we pay for new consumer brands?



“ 
Is the
useless in marketing, or are consumers smarter?
 ”
The secret recipe of Xingye “God of food” prototype stewed beef brisket bought for 5 million yuan failed to taste the beef brisket for 150 yuan. It’s not the restaurant’s fault, it’s your fault.
Just like you beat garlic with a knife, the garlic is not broken, but the knife is broken. It is not Zhang Xiaoquan’s fault, it is your fault.
But according to the same routine, what diaoye gained eight years ago was a financing of 60 million yuan and a valuation of 400 million yuan with two stores.
Eight years later, what Zhang Xiaoquan and Zhong Xuegao have gained is the continuous peeling and group ridicule on the Internet.
Is it the poor brand management? Or is it more difficult for consumers this time? Is new consumption coming to an end from its rise to its development and then to its peak?

The rise of Internet popularity and the formation of “routine”

To talk about new consumption, we must first talk about what it is.

In government documents, new consumption is “a new consumption behavior driven by new technologies such as digital technology, new business models such as online and offline integration, and new consumption relationships based on social networks and new media”.
In the statement of the investment agency, black ant capital defines new consumption as “Yuanqi forest, Helens, Xicha, etc., and believes that new consumption is to make consumers eat well and wear well, and also achieve the desired state of mind and spirit”.
The product may not be new, but the marketing method must be new. In today’s words, it is flow thinking, which not only provides practical value, but also emotional value.
According to this standard, diaoye beef brisket must be the first generation of online celebrities in new consumption.
According to the founder Meng Xing, the story of diaoye began in 2011. He ate a bowl of Jiuji beef brisket on the streets of Hong Kong and was shocked. He wanted to introduce it to the mainland, but the store opened a sky high price to embarrass him. In a fit of anger, he turned to Dai long, the “God of food in Hong Kong”, to buy the matching formula and launch his own beef brisket brand.
It is a typical shuangwen plot in which you loved to answer me but later I let you climb up.
But wait, why did this story start in 2011? What else happened before and after that year?
The year before, in 2010, China’s GDP surpassed that of Japan for the first time, becoming the world’s second largest economy. The following year, in 2012, consumption surpassed investment for the first time, becoming the first driving force of China’s GDP growth with a contribution rate of 55%.
Behind this milestone, there are two figures and a major event.
The first figure, 68%, is the proportion of the Chinese middle class in Chinese urban households in 2012. In 2000, this figure was only 4%.
Another, 77.4 points, is the consumer confidence index in mainland China given by the credit card giant MasterCard. The average score of the Asia Pacific region that year was 57.2.
One big thing is that wechat friends
First, in 2015, according to the definition of Credit Suisse, the number of middle class in China exceeded 100 million; Second, according to the McKinsey Global Survey, 55% of Chinese respondents believe that their income will increase significantly in the next five years. The third key indicator is that the number of transactions using Huabei payment exceeded 3.2 billion, an increase of 344% month on month.
The “one second opening, maximum credit limit of 50000 yuan” Huabei has increased the consumption power of low and medium-sized consumers who used to spend less than 1000 yuan per month by 50%.
Consumer sentiment has laid a solid foundation, and as in 2012, new traffic channels have boosted it. This is a short video platform. Next to it, there is a little book that is good at planting grass.
The most important thing is that live e-commerce is coming.
There was once a formula circulating in the industry: 5000 grass planting books + 2000 Q & A + a live broadcast by a super anchor = a new consumer brand. These traffic trains make it easy and fast to go from 0 to 1.
2018, when the anchor oligopoly took shape, also became the first year of Guochao.
The new tea shop, which sells a cup of tea for 20 to 30 yuan, has become a new generation of punch in points; New consumer brands such as Yuanqi forest, Zhong Xuegao, Santun and a half were born one by one.
Finally, after this stage of energy accumulation and development, new consumption ushered in a big explosion from 2020 to the first half of 2021.
Speed up the promotion and “hang up” the outbreak
Wait a minute. Do you feel some “anti common sense” at this outbreak time?
At any stage, whether the market is prosperous or not is always positively related to our optimistic expectations of future economic development and personal income.
The COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 is supposed to be a heavy blow to future economic expectations. Even if new consumption does not enter the ice age, it should be given a low temperature warning. Why does it enter the baking mode instead?

Because, the capital of the plug-in has entered the market.
According to CBN data statistics, in 2020, 550 institutions invested 470 consumer projects, with an average project investment of 105 million yuan.
What gives investors such a generous confidence? What else happened during the epidemic?
The answer is that money is not so “valuable”.
So everyone wants to seize some assets quickly. The global environment has generally released water, creating an extremely loose macro environment.
There is more money circulating in the market, and investment institutions have money in their hands. The last tuyere TMT track has fallen into a bottleneck. Coupled with favorable policies and expanded consumer demand, the new consumption track is simply in the right place at the right time.
In that year and a half, as soon as there were good projects in the new consumption track, the investment institutions were only faster than who made the money. For this reason, they even relaxed the requirements when doing their best to save the process.
Because even if it slows down a little, good projects will be snatched away by others
At the beginning of this year, the three major tea brands comprehensively lowered their product prices; The only western young master in the first generation of online popular restaurants has long sold rougamo for 7 yuan in a low-key way; Domestic beauty products that used to be “replaced by big brands” have begun to be “replaced” by more affordable products.
But in fact, in the face of this cold wave, if new consumer brands want to stay on the card table, they should not only choose low prices or “fake” low prices. If any consumer brand wants to obtain sustainable development vitality, it still needs to return to the core of consumer goods – solid product power.
China still has the most potential consumer market, and consumers still have untapped consumer demand.
Otherwise, where did Ruixing, which just announced its financial results, get more than 10 million new trading customers in the second quarter of the epidemic?
However, the main theme of this session of consumers has become rationality + cost performance + long-term value, and it is no longer sensibility + emotional premium + instant satisfaction.
Therefore, it is time for new consumer brands to enter the next stage. Next, let’s reduce the broadcast rate, fake low prices and product R & D expenses.

Author: Huang Wan; Source: 36 krypton Finance (ID: krfinance), reprinted with authorization. Reprint authorization and media cooperation: Jennifer (wechat: 15151447934);
food people are “watching”

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What are we buying when we pay for new consumer brands?

不管在哪个阶段,市场繁荣与否,总是和咱们对未来经济发展和个人收入的乐观预期呈正相关。

而2020年爆发的新冠疫情,按说是对未来经济预期的一个沉重打击,新消费即使不进入冰河期,也该被低温预警才对,为何反而进入了炙烤模式?

因为,外挂本挂的资本入场了。

据CBN Data统计数据,2020年,共有550家机构投了470个消费项目,平均项目投资额高达1.05亿元。

是什么给了投资人如此阔绰的底气?疫情当中,还发生了什么?

答案是,钱不太“值钱”了。

所以大家都想赶紧抓住些资产。全球大环境普遍放水,铸就了一个极为宽松的宏观环境。

市场上流通的钱多了起来,投资机构手里有钱,上一个风口TMT赛道陷入瓶颈,再加上政策利好、消费者需求扩大,新消费赛道简直天时地利人和占全了。

那一年半的时间里,新消费赛道一出现好项目,投资机构只比谁打钱更快,为此甚至会在尽调时放宽要求,过程能省就省。

因为哪怕慢上那么一点点,好项目就会被别人抢走,再犹豫一下下,它就干脆上市了。

2020年11月,“新消费美妆第一股”完美日记于纽交所上市。发行价10.5美元每股,三个月后便涨到20美元以上,翻了个番。

这不算什么,隔了一个月,泡泡玛特在港交所上市,发行当日暴涨不说,很快市值就逼近1500亿港元,碾压了无数苦苦耕耘了二三十年的老消费公司。

标杆树起来了,没有一个资本不想投出下一个完美日记和泡泡玛特。2021年上半年,新消费赛道热火朝天,投融资数量共595起,融资总额超1200亿元,比2020年全年的融资总额还要高。

不夸张的说,这是消费前所未有的高光时刻,而前所未有的打击,也很快就到来了。
骤然遇冷,艰难求变

2021年2月,完美日记(逸仙电商)达到了历史股价最高值25.47美元,接着便急刹车调头一路下坡,6月时市值已跌去六成。

而在6月上市的奈雪的茶,上市即破发,随后一年市值蒸发66.4%。

二级市场没能接住一级市场的高估值泡沫,属于新消费投资人们的舞曲戛然而止。

2021年整个下半年,新消费赛道共发生投融资事件483起,总融资额为766.70亿元,相比上半年减少近40%。

没活儿干了,很多机构干脆砍掉了消费赛道,半年前还踌躇满志的消费投资人们,要么原地失业,要么被迫转行。

这种从高峰到谷底的极限体验,原因复杂而多样,但一切的根本仍然在于消费者情绪的转变。

你还记得,自己是从什么时候开始,不再期待618和双十一的吗?又是从哪个瞬间开始,听到“买它买它买它”的喊话,不会再情绪上头,反而右上角退出?

好像在消费者们没注意到的时候,新消费悄悄的凉掉了。直到7月份钟薛高事件引爆了大众情绪,大家才惊觉,所有人都越来越不愿意花钱了。

不用任何报告或者数据来佐证,如果我们仔细想想,会发现这种转变其实早有预兆,就比如蜜雪冰城的异军突起,可不是只靠一首“蜜雪冰城甜蜜蜜”的洗脑广告歌。

一些敏锐察觉到这种趋势的新消费品牌,开始尝试着转身应对。

今年年初,三大茶饮品牌全面下调产品价格;初代网红餐厅中硕果仅存的西少爷,早就低调卖起了7块钱一个肉夹馍;曾经以“大牌平替”出圈的国产美妆,开始被更平价的产品所“平替”。

但其实,面对这场寒潮,新消费品牌想要留在牌桌上,不该只有低价,或者“假”低价这一条路,任何消费品牌想获得持续发展的生命力,还是需要回到一个消费品的核心——夯实的产品力。

中国依旧拥有最有潜力的消费市场,消费者们也依旧拥有未被发掘的消费需求。

否则,刚公布财报的瑞幸,在疫情最严重的第二季度获得的超1000万新交易客户增量,是从哪里来的呢?

只不过,这一届消费者的主旋律,已经变成了理性+性价比+长期价值,不再是感性+情绪溢价+即时满足。

所以,新消费品牌们,该迈入下一阶段了。接下来少点上播率,少点假低价,多点产品研发费吧。

作者:黄菀;来源:36氪财经(ID:krfinance),转载已获得授权。
媒体商务合作:Amy(微信号:13701559246);
转载授权及媒体合作:Jennifer(微信号:15151447934);
加入社群:Cherry(微信号:15262433826)。

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