China Food

5 yuan ice American style, capture small cities


 

5块钱的咖啡,是在表演便宜。摆出一个便宜的姿态,贴上一个性价比的标签,就能被市场记住。

 

Recently, I saw several news. One news is that Ruixing released its second quarter financial report, with a total revenue of 3.3 billion yuan and a profit of 240 million yuan. This is the first time that Ruixing has made profits for two consecutive quarters.
If there is no moisture in this financial report, Ruixing may really be reborn from nirvana.
Note that there is no moisture.
Another is lucky coffee, a coffee chain brand owned by Michelle ice city. This is a brand that sells American coffee for only 5 yuan, latte for only 6 yuan, and most other milk coffee products are also within 10 yuan, which makes coffee the floor price.
Lucky guy
They recently announced that their 1400th store was set up in Cangzhou, Hebei Province. Compared with the scale of almost 200 stores at this time last year, 1200 stores were opened in more than a year, which is also a good breeding speed. And the monthly revenue of a single store has reached a high of 300000.
Last year, I mentioned three major trends in the future of the coffee industry: milk tea, small shops and low prices. In one word, it can be summarized as the model of snow ice city.
At that time, I also nominated several brands that might become the king of the sinking market, including Ruixing and lucky coffee.
But to be honest, the speed of coffee brand layout in third and fourth tier cities is actually much faster than I imagined.
In addition to lucky coffee and lucky, convenience stores such as convenience bee and Tangjiu have also launched coffee sub brands “sleepless sea” and “sample coffee”, extending their tentacles to a larger market.
Why did coffee, which used to be regarded as the so-called “beverage of petty bourgeoisie in big cities”, do so well in third – and fourth tier cities? What is the difference between the logic of the sinking market of the coffee industry and that of first tier cities? Can cheap coffee really make you the king of coffee?
In this issue, I want to talk about the vigorous “coffee sinking movement”.

Although coffee sells three, four or eleven cups in Starbucks, in fact, from the perspective of cost, coffee is not very expensive.
Let’s do a simple calculation.
When you walk into an ordinary coffee shop and order a latte. The consumption of coffee beans is about 20 grams, and the cost is about 1.5 yuan. If fresh milk, that is, low-temperature milk, is used, the price is 3.5 yuan. With the cost of cups and straws, the cost of a cup can be controlled at about six yuan.
If you order American style, the cost will be lower, about 2.5 to 3 yuan.
This is why Lucky coffee dares to sell coffee for 5 yuan. If the brand is priced according to the cost, then these basic coffee are almost the same price.
On the other hand, the coffee price of 20-30 yuan in first tier cities, a large part of which includes brand premium, high labor and rent.
Of course, if you set the price according to the cost, you can’t make money. Even if you sell 1000 cups of lucky American style a day, you won’t make much profit.
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300000, for a coffee shop with regular meals less than 10 yuan, it means that the daily sales volume of a single shop is at least 1000 cups, and may even reach 1500 cups. This is about five times the average sales volume of Ruixing.
If it wasn’t for being cheap enough, lucky coffee wouldn’t have this sales volume.
After all, no one can refuse cheap things.
In addition, coffee is actually a category suitable for expansion and opening a large number of stores.
Because coffee is highly standardized from production to production.
The planting of coffee in the production area has been highly standardized, and the processing link in the middle reaches is also very mature. In addition, there are not many technical barriers to coffee processing. In addition to large roasters, many small and medium-sized coffee shops can also complete their own baking, which is a very competitive market.
It can be said that as long as you are willing to choose, you can always find a suitable supplier.
In stores, coffee making is also easy to standardize. In fact, there are only a few common brands of coffee machines, and there are also very standard proportions of beverage blending. Starbucks and Ruixing use full-automatic coffee machines. To make a cup of coffee, the whole process only needs to press a few buttons.
If the coffee making process is very cumbersome, which means that the staff of Starbucks and lucky must be skilled baristas, it is impossible for them to open thousands of stores nationwide, because the market simply can’t recruit so many baristas.
But in fact, baristas in chain stores can take up their posts after training for about two months.
Another advantage of standardization is that you rarely have to wait 15 minutes for a cup of coffee at Starbucks, even during peak hours. In contrast, the production of freshly made tea is much more troublesome, especially the fruit tea made of fresh fruit, which is very popular now. It takes a lot of manpower to deal with the fruit alone.
I once sat in the shop for 40 minutes for a cup of hand made lemon tea. I was already very angry, but when I saw the clerk making drinks in a hurry, I still put up with it.
Alas, it’s not easy.
In short, the high degree of standardization means that the expansion speed is not limited. In the second quarter of this year alone, Ruixing opened more than 600 new stores. As mentioned above, there are lucky coffee who open more than 1000 stores a year.
It seems that it is only a matter of time before coffee brands can be found in the second, third and fourth tier cities in the future.
But before coffee conquered the sinking market, there was a category that could not be bypassed.
That’s milk tea.
The density of milk tea in China’s second, third and fourth tier cities is too high.

There are 20000 stores in mixue ice city, more than 6000 stores in shuyishaoxiancao, more than 6000 stores in tianlala, more than 5000 stores in yihetang, more than 5000 stores in Guming, nearly 5000 stores in coco, and more than 5000 stores in chabaidao
You always get tired of milk tea, don’t you? Why don’t you have a cup of coffee for a change? This is the same as KFC McDonald’s. I’m tired of eating Shuangji. Do you still want to go crazy on Thursday?
In fact, it is not only Ruixing and lucky coffee who are eyeing the sinking market, but also those traditional big brands are also competing for layout.
In 2019, Starbucks launched a “coffee express” store, which is also a small stall. The following year, Starbucks accelerated the sinking of coffee express stores. And the target is the second and third tier cities.
Today, the number of Starbucks stores in second and third tier cities has exceeded its distribution in large cities.
In addition, Tim Hortons, a Canadian national chain coffee brand, also hopes to break through the second and third tier cities to save its lackluster performance in the Chinese market.
Why are coffee brands eyeing the sinking market?
I had a chat with a friend who is a restaurant and came to a conclusion:
The industry characteristic of China’s catering industry is to do small business in big cities and big business in “small” cities.
Please note that “small” cities here actually refer to cities with low housing prices, land rents and manpower. They are not really small cities.
What does that mean? In the catering industry, those super chain brands often do not come from first tier cities.
There are fundamental differences in business models between big cities and “small” cities.

The business model of big cities is that brands work hard for landlords. When rent becomes the most core rigid expenditure, it must be supported by high unit price and gross profit. The higher the price, the less the audience, so it’s not easy to have a brand of ten thousand stores in a big city.
In “small” cities, there is room for the business model of small profits and high sales, and more stores can be opened to cover more people.
Among the four major WanDian chains in China, Zhengxin chicken chops are from Ruian County of Wenzhou, Wallace was born in Fuzhou, Juewei duck neck and miyue ice city are all from the new front, but one was founded in Changsha and the other in Zhengzhou, which meet the above definition.
The most famous collective trademark in China, Shaxian Hotel, belongs to Sanming, Fujian Province.
In addition, Zhang Liang and Yang Guofu are from Binxian County of Harbin, the local chicken is from Feixi County of Hefei, and Yang Mingyu’s braised chicken is from Jinan.
Catering brands that come from these small places and take the affordable route can often open their stores all over the country and turn cheap food into a big business.
In contrast to these stores, brands that mainly focus on first and second tier cities, such as Naixue in Shenzhen and Chupei in Beijing, have a high unit price per customer, but their scale is also limited. The number of stores may be one or two orders of magnitude less than that of their peers. In contrast, they seem like small businesses.
For any brand, doing big business is an irresistible temptation.
Starbucks doesn’t want to be influenced by Ruixing and manner
5 yuan ice American style, capture small cities
那么,咖啡的突破口在哪里呢?
我觉得有两点。
首先,咖啡是一种有成瘾性的饮料,而成瘾性直接导向复购率。
如果你经常去咖啡店,一定会发现,咖啡店里总有这么一批客人,每天定时定点来店里点一杯咖啡,也总有一批客人时不时地来店里坐坐,喝喝饮料聊聊天。
时间长了,这些人就成为了店里的稳定客源。
这里面,固然有职场文化和社区文化起作用,但背后,不能忽视的是咖啡因的作用。
在欧美,许多人每年咖啡饮用量都在数百杯。当消费者咖啡成瘾,他们就被维系住了,复购率也就有了。
根据易观调研数据,50%以上的现有咖啡消费者明确表示会增加现磨咖啡的饮用频次。而德勤数据显示,超过五年咖啡饮用习惯人群平均每年摄入量达370杯,远超饮用习惯一年的243杯。稳定的饮用习惯带来高频次复购,咖啡产品生命周期长于其他饮品。
咖啡就像一个钩子,每天把消费者勾到店里来消费一两杯饮料。
一个顾客,一天能消费的饮料是有限的,如果咖啡能在其中占据一个稳定的位置,养成了消费习惯,意味着就有了一个稳定的基本盘。
第二点,虽然我一直认为咖啡大概率是干不过奶茶的,但不要忘了这个市场有多大。在历史上,这两种合法饮品就有互相替代的作用,咖啡一定程度上是可以替代奶茶的。
你奶茶总有喝腻的时候吧?这时候不来杯咖啡换换口味?这就跟肯德基麦当劳是一样的,我双吉吃腻了,还不是想疯狂星期四一下?
事实上,盯上了下沉市场的,不仅是瑞幸和幸运咖,那些传统大牌也正在布局争夺。
2019年,星巴克推出「啡快」店,也就是档口小店。次年,星巴克加快了「啡快」店的下沉速度。并且目标是二三线城市。
如今,星巴克在二三线城市的门店数已经超过了它在大城市的分布。
另外,像加拿大国民连锁咖啡品牌Tim Hortons,也希望从二三线城市突围,拯救它在中国市场乏善可陈的表现。
为什么咖啡品牌都盯上了下沉市场?
之前我和一个做餐饮的朋友聊天,聊出一个结论:
中国餐饮业的行业特征,是在大城市做小生意,在「小」城市做大生意。
请注意,这里的「小」城市指的其实是房价、地租和人力不高的城市,并非真的小城市。
什么意思呢?就是在餐饮行业里,那些超级连锁品牌往往不会来自一线城市。
大城市和「小」城市,商业模式有着根本性的区别。
大城市的商业模式,是品牌为房东打工卖命。当房租成为最核心的刚性支出,就必然需要高单价,高毛利来支撑。价格高了,受众就少,因此大城市不容易出现万店规模的品牌。
而到了「小」城市,薄利多销的商业模式就有了空间,也就能开更多的门店,覆盖更多的人群。
中国四大万店连锁里,正新鸡排来自温州瑞安县,华莱士诞生在福州,绝味鸭脖和蜜雪冰城虽然都来自新一线,但一个创立在长沙,一个创立在郑州,都符合上述定义。
而中国最知名的集体商标,沙县大酒店,属于福建三明。
除此之外,张亮和杨国福来自哈尔滨宾县,老乡鸡来自合肥肥西县,杨铭宇黄焖鸡来自济南。
这些小地方出来的,走平价路线的餐饮品牌,往往能把门店开遍全国各地,把廉价食物做成一门大生意。
和这些店相反,主打一二线城市的品牌,例如深圳的奈雪,北京的凑凑,虽然客单价高,但规模也有限,门店数量可能比同行要少一到两个数量级,相比之下反而像是小生意了。
对任何品牌来说,做大生意都是一种难以抵挡的诱惑。
星巴克不想被瑞幸和manner干掉,Tim Hortons想要在中国市场找到更多存在感,瑞幸想要成为中国的星巴克,幸运咖想要在咖啡市场复制蜜雪冰城的成功。
最后,他们都盯上了还处于空白的市场。
所以,我大胆预测一下,咖啡企业在三四线城市,未来必然会有一场大战。
而这场咖啡战争可能没有输家,相反,会在中国市场诞生出两到三家,可以和星巴克叫板的咖啡巨头。
未来的中国咖啡市场,注定不会是星巴克统治一切,而是多足鼎立。
说到底,中国市场很大,赚钱的姿势不止一种。或许哪天看到这篇文章的人里,就诞生了一个做大生意的佼佼者也说不定呢?

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