is a huge gambler and relies heavily on joining.
“Before June this year, we thought that there were few old competitors in the Chinese market; after June, we saw some new competitors.” In October this year, a person close to the core of Ruixing said to Hu Xiang: Ruixing’s overall performance in 2022 met the company’s expectations (even some indicators exceeded the targets set at the beginning of the year), but Ruixing will not return to NASDAQ in 2022.
It may be waiting for a better price and time.
On November 22, Ruixing announced its financial report for the third quarter of 2022: its total revenue in the quarter was 3.894 billion yuan, up 65.7% year on year; The operating profit under American accounting standards was 585 million yuan, up 88.3% year on year.
In the past quarter and even in the whole 2022, Ruixing has made great efforts to improve its operational efficiency. In the third quarter, Ruixing’s operating profit margin (GAAP) reached 15% in the quarter, which is the first time that Ruixing has achieved double digits since its establishment.
Hidden behind the financial report is the new situation of the competition for the first brother in the Chinese coffee market: by the end of the third quarter, the total number of Ruixing stores had reached 7846, and the average number of monthly trading customers had reached 25.1 million; During the same period, the total number of Starbucks stores reached 6021, and the number of active members of the Star Club exceeded 17 million.
However, it is worth noting that Ruixing, who has handed over a good report card, did not cause “a chorus” in the capital market. After the release of the financial report, Ruixing once fell by 5% in the US stock market, and by the end of November 22, Ruixing had fallen by 4.21%. (Pink sheet market: a kind of stock circulation mode for OTC trading of enterprises that cannot be listed on the three major stock exchanges in the United States)
Compared with the second quarter, the “store level profit margin” of Ruixing’s self operated stores in the third quarter fell by 1.4% to 29.2% month on month, and the year-on-year growth rate decreased from 7.5% in the previous quarter to 4% in this quarter. At the same time, the year-on-year growth rate of Ruixing’s income also showed a downward trend, from 72.4% in the previous quarter to 65.7% in this quarter.
The epidemic is one of Ruixing’s pressure points. According to the data provided by Ruixing, the average number of stores in the “temporary closing” state every day from July to August 2022 is about 108; From September to October, the number rose to 330; In November, the latest statistics of Ruixing showed that on average, about 500 stores were in the state of “temporary closing” every day.
Rising costs are also testing Ruixing’s profitability. In the quarter, the material cost of Ruixing rose 56.6% year on year, and the store rent and other operating costs rose 49.4% year on year.
“Ruixing is one of the companies that still maintain growth in the Chinese stock market in the US stock market. The pink list market itself has a high degree of uncertainty. If you look at the timeline in the long term, you can see Ruixing’s growth. On November 30, 2020, Ruixing’s closing price in the pink list market was $4.55, while the latest closing price was $17.99, an increase of 2.95 times in two years.” US equity analysts
According to the internal information from Ruixing, the resource difference of products with different ratings is even reflected in the “cup body”: at present, Ruixing has matched some core products with a cup body with a separate IP. “Some S and S+products will get special cup body design, promotion resources, IP co branding and even spokespersons. These are all pre positioned. Ruixing will generally select products, formulate promotion and publicity strategies six months in advance.” The above person disclosed to Hu Xiang.
It is worth noting that the price band of Ruixing’s products will be more widely distributed in 2022. In addition to the traditional low-cost products, the “get it” price of its core S-class and S+class products will generally be between 15 and 20 yuan.
An analyst who did not want to be named said to Hu Xiang that according to the reissued financial report of Ruixing later, if Ruixing in the Lu Zhengyao period could achieve “the average number of cups sold by the store is 300, and the average customer price is 15-20 yuan”, then the Ruixing model was likely to make money at that time. “According to the model of Ruixing at that time, if the average customer price was less than 10 yuan, its single store operation might be in a loss situation. But the subtle thing is that if the cup volume remained unchanged, the average customer price rose to 15 to 20 yuan, and some of Ruixing’s single stores at that time could be profitable.”
The above people believe that this may be the key logic of Ruixing’s new team’s trading: on the one hand, it is the foundation of Ruixing to increase the cup output of single stores; On the other hand, it is the secret of Ruixing’s profitability to increase the customer price or optimize the profit space.
In Ruixing’s financial report, there is a paragraph of Guo Jinyi’s summary of Ruixing in the past quarter, which coincides with the above logic: “We continue to use our operating efficiency and expanding scale to further improve our profitability, and the operating profit margin in the third quarter was 15%.”
A detail that many people do not know is that today’s Ruixing is also a company managed based on the “OKR method”: every department of Ruixing has a detailed OKR. After the new leading team of Guo Jin Belt “took a firm seat in the lucky”, the “push OKR” model is the key measure of Guo Jin’s team.
“This is regarded as a means for Ruixing to pursue refined management and aspire to become a modern company.” An insider of Ruixing said that in Lu Zhengyao’s era, Ruixing was more like a “people based company” Today, Ruixing has “organized operation” through OKR and more detailed division of labor.
The above person mentioned a detail. In today’s meeting room of Ruixing, people will “brainstorm” fiercely, and even some young people who have just joined Ruixing will be “allowed to speak freely”. The person also said that Guo Jinyi gave Ruixing employees great “tolerance and freedom”, and that “in some key links, Mr. Guo is willing to delegate power to professionals, rather than go it alone”.
Another Ruixing employee who had experienced Lu Zhengyao’s and Guo Jinyi’s time said that the atmosphere in Ruixing today is very young and lively. In today’s Ruixing, except for special circumstances, there is no overtime or 996 at all
A person in charge of Ruixing’s promotion and investment promotion in the local market told Hu Xiang that this “hand to hand combat” was unprecedented since Ruixing was founded. “It is very fierce and fierce. The Snow City behind it is also very powerful, and it can afford to fight with us for a long time.”
After the expansion of franchise in January 2022, franchise stores have become the key weapon for Ruixing’s growth. Financial report data showed that in the third quarter, the number of Ruixing’s associated stores was 2473, accounting for 31.5% of the total number of Ruixing’s stores.
Franchise stores are also the key engine for Ruixing’s revenue growth: in the quarter, the revenue of Ruixing’s associated stores reached 899 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 116.1%, much higher than that of Ruixing’s self operated stores. The financial report data shows that the year-on-year growth rate of the same store sales of Ruixing’s self operated stores decreased from 94.5% in March 2021 to 19.4% in the third quarter of 2022.
From the opening speed of franchise stores, we can feel the “rivalry” between Lucky Coffee and Lucky Coffee: since 2022, Lucky Coffee has added 846 new franchise stores, while Lucky Coffee has added 801 new franchise stores according to the data of narrow door restaurants.
“Many of the new Lucky Cafe are close to the Lucky Cafe. In the same city, the two are still competing for the same investors. In the relatively depressed city, Lucky Cafe aims to attract customers through lower price products. There is competition between these products and Lucky Cafe.” Liu Chang, a new consumption analyst, believes that franchise stores play the role of Ruixing’s “new store engine” and “revenue growth engine”. Lucky coffee in the Snow City and Xicha, which has just opened its franchise, will bring competition to Ruixing’s franchise strategy.
An investor in the United States believed that the third quarter financial report showed that “Ruixing’s dependence on the franchise model has increased”. Under such circumstances, Ruixing needs to give investors more confidence to “prove the sustainability of the franchise model and its attractiveness and advantages in the face of greater competition.”
Some analysts pointed out that Ruixing may be faced with a situation of “front to back attack”. In addition to new competitors such as Snow City, Starbucks, an old rival, is also launching a new offensive. On September 14, Starbucks announced its “2025 China Strategic Vision”, which aims to achieve a 100% increase in net income and 400% increase in operating profit in the Chinese market in 2025 (compared with fiscal year 2022). Recently, Starbucks CEO Schultz once again expressed his attention to the Chinese market: “Starbucks is excited by the dawn of the recovery of the Chinese market in the fourth quarter. The Chinese market is the future of Starbucks.”
In order to find new growth points, Ruixing began to look overseas.
“We may have more actions at sea in 2023. The United States, Japan and Southeast Asia are all within the scope of Ruixing’s attention.” An insider of Ruixing told Tiger Smell that the successful cases of Snow City in Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Indonesia) had been studied in Ruixing, and the Japanese coffee market was also the focus of Ruixing.
At the same time, Ruixing also tried to find new S+projects besides raw coconut latte and raw cheese latte. “We now have two S+super blockbusters. If we launch new super blockbusters next year, our overall sales will reach a new high.”
The profit secret behind Ruixing’s financial report
一位瑞幸总监级员工向虎嗅表示，今天瑞幸年轻人“被起用”的路径较为清晰，公司内大部分总监都是90后，项目执行的核心骨干多以95年前后出生的人为主，“瑞幸给的薪水，在整个咖啡、茶饮圈算是高水平，这里的人际并不复杂，你能做出爆款、做出好东西，就能升迁，与你的资历、年龄没关系，不存在所谓的旧部余党。这可能是今天瑞幸狼性基因的根源，赏罚分明。”
据瑞幸内部的人透露，在开会和内部聊天时，他们经常会提起星巴克，但并不把星巴克视为瑞幸眼下“最关键的对手”。
“瑞幸内部提蜜雪冰城的次数很多，甚至有时候我们聊到幸运咖（蜜雪冰城旗下咖啡品牌）比星巴克还多。”上述内部人士告诉虎嗅，2022年下半年，蜜雪冰城的幸运咖几乎和瑞幸“贴身肉搏”——在一些下沉市场，凡是有瑞幸加盟店的地方，两周之内就会出现一家幸运咖。
一位在地方市场负责瑞幸推广招商工作的人士告诉虎嗅，这种“贴身肉搏”是瑞幸创立以来未曾遇到过的。“很凶、很猛，它背后的蜜雪冰城也相当有实力，它耗得起，可以跟我们打持久战。”
在2022年1月扩大加盟力度后，加盟店已经成为瑞幸增长的关键武器。财报数据显示，第三季度，瑞幸联营门店数为2473家，占瑞幸总门店数比上升为31.5%。
加盟店还是瑞幸收入增长的关键引擎：季度内瑞幸联营门店收入达到8.99亿元，同比增长116.1%，增速远远高于瑞幸自营门店。财报数据显示，瑞幸自营门店同店销售额同比增速从2021年3月的94.5%下降至2022年三季度的19.4%。
从加盟店开店速度上，可以感受幸运咖和瑞幸的“角力”：2022年以来，瑞幸新增联营门店数为846家，而据窄门餐眼数据幸运咖新增加盟门店数为801家。
“新增幸运咖中，很多靠近瑞幸点位。在同样的城市中，二者还在竞争相同的投资者。瑞幸在相对下沉城市，是要通过较低价格产品去引流的，这些产品和幸运咖之间本身存在竞争。”新消费分析师刘畅认为，加盟店扮演着瑞幸“门店新增引擎”“收入增长引擎”。蜜雪冰城的幸运咖以及最近刚开放加盟的喜茶，都会对瑞幸的加盟战略带来竞争。
一位身处美国的投资者认为，三季度财报体现出“瑞幸对加盟模式的依赖度有加强趋势”，在这样的情况下，瑞幸需要给投资者更强的信心“证明在加盟模式下的可持续性以及面对更大竞争时的吸引力、优势。”
有分析人士指出，瑞幸可能面临的情况是“前后夹击”，在蜜雪冰城等新对手之外，老对手星巴克也正在发起新攻势。在9月14日星巴克公布“2025中国战略愿景”，计划于在2025年在中国市场实现（相较2022财年）净收入增长100%、营业利润增长至400%的目标。近期星巴克首席执行官舒尔茨再次表达了对中国市场的重视：“中国市场第四季度的复苏曙光让星巴克倍感振奋。中国市场是星巴克的未来。”
“我们在2023年可能会在出海上有更多动作。美国、日本、东南亚这些市场，都在瑞幸关注范围内。”一位瑞幸内部人士告诉虎嗅，蜜雪冰城在东南亚（越南、印尼）的成功案例在瑞幸内部曾被研究，日本咖啡市场也是瑞幸关注的重点。
与此同时，瑞幸也试图找到生椰拿铁和生酪拿铁之外新的S+项目。“我们现在有两个S+超级爆款，如果我们明年再推出新的超级爆款，我们的整体销量又会到新的高位。”
“瑞幸的增长主要是产品端和用户端（门店），在产品端它寄希望于更多爆款，通过这些高毛利率、相对高单价产品去拉高单店营业利润；在用户端，它通过下沉、出海去扩大覆盖率。最终以高利润门店的模式去冲击二次上市。如果说第一次上市瑞幸讲了一个关于扩张速度的故事，第二次瑞幸想讲一个关于利润的故事。”分析师刘彬认为虽然瑞幸连续两季财报成绩不错，但并非到了瑞幸可以松口气的时刻。
“星巴克在全球有35711家门店，在基本盘北美和第二大市场中国总共有21899家门店，这相当于瑞幸的3倍。如果单纯看中国市场，瑞幸的市场占有率依然较大提高空间。”刘彬认为今天在中国咖啡圈，“咖啡奶茶化”趋势下，瑞幸和喜茶、奈雪其实已经正面开战，而大家的核心价格带其实都在“15元左右”，核心市场又主要以一二线城市为主，“咖啡茶饮竞争越发激烈，瑞幸尚未到通吃阶段。”
眼下，瑞幸即将开启新一轮扩张。在财报会议上，郭谨一表示在12月“瑞幸咖啡将放开新一轮下沉市场联营合伙人名额。”以及在未来瑞幸要继续保持“有强大竞争力的”开店节奏。
或许12月开始，瑞幸和星巴克、蜜雪冰城、喜茶们的战况会愈发激烈了。
作者：苗正卿；来源：虎嗅APP（ID：huxiu_com），转载已获得授权。
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